Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RobertSul]

5 minutes ago, bwt3650 said:

Yes, the end of the world is coming…a “bomb cyclone” with “hurricane force winds”…let’s create crazy adjectives to describe it and build hype and stoke fear.  It’s a substantial storm, but so was 78, 93, 96, 15 and so on.  It will snow, we will plow, and move on…

The headline said with the “power of a hurricane” which 960 mb clearly is. This qualifies as a rapidly deepening storm so bomb cyclone applies, and in each of those years, unprepared people died, some probably as a result of jaded people like you going, “meh.”

With that said, no one but *you* said the end of the world was coming. You’re literally overhyping the media hype.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

GFS, CMC, RGEM, UKMET all really want to hold the southern stream back and go with a progressive northern stream flow. And the globals are having all sorts of problems nailing down the surface weather.

NAM seems to be the only one willing to fully phase it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Hoth said:

All the models suck, therefore the ruling on the field is that each weenie should cling to whichever output most closely accords with his or her confirmation bias. In addition, the Ukie will be assessed a penalty for flagrant weenie baiting, and its low will be set on the benchmark. Automatic first down.

UK 150mi west penalty for unnecessary roughness.

[MarkO]

959mb on the GFS. What a bomb, too bad it's not a hit for most of us.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

18Z could be the one

Still being 3 days out, And this has slowed down some, You can't take anything off the table but that GFS run was not far from something better.

[JC-CT]

fwiw, the NAM should be thrown out by default. maybe when the storm is already starting to develop, we can look at it for banding. maybe

[CT Valley Dryslot]

This is promising. Large cluster of members west of the GEFS mean.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This is coming guys.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

We can always adjust down

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk
 

Start at 10" and adjust downward to 4" once the euro gets a clue. 

[JC-CT]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

This is promising. Large cluster of members west of the GEFS mean.

was just going to say...people should look before posting

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It was because it held back the shortwave in the s/w waaay more than it had for several runs, so the trough ended up further east. but the northern stream changes were good imho. so we need the southern stream to revert to not holding back as much. it is a big change that it just made, so again, I'd love some continuity there. then again, euro has definitely been moving towards holding it back more.

I don't know though if that's impacting where the sfc low first pops off the southeast coast. 

there is energy well ahead of that southern s/w in which the NAM is closer to the coast and the GFS is farther east

Unless I'm totally wrong on this, low pressure development initially usually occurs very close to or right along the baroclinic zone (which is virtually just off the SE Coast...on all models). Even when looking at mid-upper levels that would favor initial development just off the coast...not as far east as GFS has

 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

fwiw, the NAM should be thrown out by default. maybe when the storm is already starting to develop, we can look at it for banding. maybe

With all due respect, besides it being LR NAM, give me a technical reason why it should be ignored.

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

I don't know though if that's impacting where the sfc low first pops off the southeast coast. 

based on watching every model run for basically a week now, it sure seems like it is what is impacting it.

[MegaMike]

24 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

SFC low should not be east of the convection.

You're not looking at two instantaneous fields. edit: instantaneous not instantons lol

Precipitation type and intensity: 6 hour, average precipitation rate... Honestly, I don't know why they'd choose to plot this.

MSLP contours: instantaneous field interpolated by a programming utility.

Use TT's 'MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen)' and 'Radar (Rain/Frozen)' graphics instead.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CT Valley Dryslot said:

This is promising. Large cluster of members west of the GEFS mean.

That's worse then 06z GEFS

[Hoth]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro will go east

It's the last model besides the weenie Nam to be really far west.

Dude, can you keep the moping in the NYC thread. Jesus.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, Hoth said:

Dude, can you keep the moping in the NYC thread. Jesus.

I like to jump into other threads and pity with them.

[JC-CT]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

With all due respect, besides it being LR NAM, give me a technical reason why it should be ignored.

complete lack of continuity. the fact that it's not designed to be the best model at resolving large scale features and h5 patterns. its epically bad performance this season at trying to do so. anything else?

[CCHurricane]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2005 is a really hard hurdle to clear for the upper Cape/PYM area...they literally got 35-40" widespread there in that storm.

Very much agree. While unlikely, OES and high ratios could get them into the 30" ballpark according to the GFS. 

What a historic storm back in Jan 2005. My fondest memory was that as the storm was beginning, most TV Mets had rain and mixing for those across the Cape...never came! 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

This is promising. Large cluster of members west of the GEFS mean.

Big flag for the op

[weatherwiz]

Just now, JC-CT said:

based on watching every model run for basically a week now, it sure seems like it is what is impacting it.

IMO it would impact how the low evolves/tracks...not necessarily initial development. 

[Hoth]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I like to jump into other threads and pity with them.

Maybe I need to create my own WOR splinter faction. I still like the look, models be damned. We will wage holy jihad in the name of Ullr.

[George001]

5 minutes ago, MarkO said:

959mb on the GFS. What a bomb, too bad it's not a hit for most of us.

That’s the thing, it’s farther east than the other models, yet even if it were to somehow be right (which is unlikely), it would be underestimating the size of the precip shield. The precip shield would likely be way more expansive with a 959mb low.

[WeatherHappens]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I like to jump into other threads and pity with them.

stop bringing me down man lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, George001 said:

That’s the thing, it’s farther east than the other models, yet even if it were to somehow be right (which is unlikely), it would be underestimating the size of the precip shield. The precip shield would likely be way more expansive with a 959mb low.

Exactly.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Still being 3 days out, And this has slowed down some, You can't take anything off the table but that GFS run was not far from something better.

it is slowly slowing down probably enough for me to get in noon or 1pm Saturday.  fingers crossed.  777 coming into Logan has a shot if they clear the runway.  Wind shouldn't be a problem then.  I guess the capture is everything for us northern folks.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm still pretty bullish for the WOR crowd....but I do wish we could go back to the days when we knew the GFS was full of sh**

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ARC/2013/20130205/AVN_6z/avnloop.html

 

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

IMO it would impact how the low evolves/tracks...not necessarily initial development. 

I guess my point is, the overall further east (wider swing) evolution vs prior runs makes sense given the change in the trough. so why try to find other reasons to explain it when it did exactly what you would expect based on how it changed earlier in the run?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you don't hit at least 10", I will buy you a beer.

I hate beer but ok.  

 

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro will go east

It's the last model besides the weenie Nam to be really far west.

We knew the play before the euro broke the huddle. 

[bwt3650]

7 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

The headline said with the “power of a hurricane” which 960 mb clearly is. This qualifies as a rapidly deepening storm so bomb cyclone applies, and in each of those years, unprepared people died, some probably as a result of jaded people like you going, “meh.”

With that said, no one but *you* said the end of the world was coming. You’re literally overhyping the media hype.

Yeah, I’m still going to go with that headline is media hype.  Enjoy the snow, bro.