Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

6z CMC appears to have shifted slightly east.

[ORH_wxman]

Just catching up on euro and 06z guidance. Definite overall tick east…though it was good to see 06z GFS tick west. Hopefully that means we’re narrowing the goalposts a bit more. 

 

Some of the banding sigs are incredible with this system. There are going to be 3-4” per hour bands in this if it looks like that at go-time. 
 

[UnitedWx]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

WOR....STOP WORRYING.

You have margin for error on that map, and keep in mind...I agree east kicks are still likely, but model QPF is NOT going to capture the full extent of that deformation, so its not far enough west to begin with. NVM that this has so much s stream origin.

This is NOT Juno....this is NOT March 2018.....this is on another level as far as regional impact, though probably similar east.

This will be the most severe regional impactor in 9 years-

Period.

I said this yesterday (or was it two or three days ago? ) Those clown maps are just a guide and rarely get the distribution of where banding is etc. correct. People need to focus on the track, strength and upper air more than those stupid clown maps. I agree this is going to be very impactful region wide. This type of storm always has a larger feel anyway even if you "only" get 6 inches

[Johnno]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro EPS GGEM..think back to all the biggies. They always lock in early and the GFS slowly moves to them around day 2

Wasn’t it way east with 2/13 until like 24-36 hrs?

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

GFS with its expected move back west. Focus becomes clearer. 6 z vs 12 z. Ratios are 15 to 1 so yea demolish Boston

I need this to come west another 50 miles.

Was hoping for a megalopolis crusher.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

I need this to come west another 50 miles.

Was hoping for a megalopolis crusher.

Decent chance you get it. I’d expect a compromise between euro and GFS. 

[SnowHole413]

Appears to be a real sharp cut off with this storm. I think the outcome will be similar to Jan 2015

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Wasn’t it way east with 2/13 until like 24-36 hrs?

It was, as well as others. But keep in mind it's a different GFS than 2013. Can't really use that as a guide

[EastonSN+]

I really hope EURO is right or even more intense and west. Nothing more entertaining than a media frenzy on a true megalopolis snowstorm. 

Gets less attention when it's just New England.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Decent chance you get it. I’d expect a compromise between euro and GFS. 

Thanks. Got my hopes up for a monster for this one but only the EURO has WOR in the goods so not expecting it to stay. 

[Johnno]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

It was, as well as others. But keep in mind it's a different GFS than 2013. Can't really use that as a guide

True, thinking Farmington valley area ends up around 8-12 in the end, hopefully euro doesn’t budge 

[Chrisrotary12]

Euro/GGEM = perfect. GFS = decent.

All you need to know right now.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

All guidance looks pretty good here… hard to find anything to complain about. Nothing is less than 12+ here 

[jbenedet]

Most are looking at the surface off the east coast, but the trend at H5 on the GFS is fantastic, with the trough orientation trending negative, sooner and better alignment/phasing between northern and southern streams. I say keep this trend going and worry much less about UL heights off the east coast in a situation such as this where there is no blocking. Guidance notoriously under-amplifies UL heights downstream of a potent shortwave. I’ll take that risk any day over UL trough orientation/position. The latter is much more important at this stage.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

All guidance looks pretty good here… hard to find anything to complain about. Nothing is less than 12+ here 

Yeah--you're sitting comfortably.  I'm feeling pretty comfortable at the Pike/495, but the GFS does give me a little pause.  Hopefully 12z will remove doubt.

[JC-CT]

7 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

All guidance looks pretty good here… hard to find anything to complain about. Nothing is less than 12+ here 

I'm sure you'll figure something out

[CoastalWx]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Poor poor GFS family. Even the upgrade left them broke and poor for east coast snowstorms 

Can’t really say that when models correcting to a solution. 

[Damage In Tolland]

24 minutes ago, Johnno said:

Wasn’t it way east with 2/13 until like 24-36 hrs?

Yeah it was OTS 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can’t really say that when models correcting to a solution. 

He’s worried 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can’t really say that when models correcting to a solution. 

Euro hasnt moved 

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Just reciting to myself Ray’s WOR deform pep talk over and over.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

He’s worried 

I think CT is in the cross hairs 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I think CT is in the cross hairs 

I’m shocked you think that 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Kitzbuhel Craver said:

Just reciting to myself Ray’s WOR deform pep talk over and over.

Hes lying to you

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I’m shocked you think that 

I don’t think your area is

[cut]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think CT is in the cross hairs 

If I remember correctly(and I may not) Feb 2013 had the big totals off to my east. We wound up with 33” here and we were near he top end of accumulations here in Trumbull.

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just catching up on euro and 06z guidance. Definite overall tick east…though it was good to see 06z GFS tick west. Hopefully that means we’re narrowing the goalposts a bit more. 

 

Some of the banding sigs are incredible with this system. There are going to be 3-4” per hour bands in this if it looks like that at go-time. 
 

RGEM west? What else East? 

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think your area is

Preach, Rev. My faith is in you to restore atmospheric karma.

[JC-CT]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

RGEM west? What else East? 

Ggem

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Hes lying to you

At least the GFS came back a tick?