Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:10 AM, TheSnowman said:

OK, guys, I'm in LA right now with gigs tomorrow tomorrow night and a private one on Saturday, so I need to start thinking.....

THE GRAND QUESTION......  

Do I Change My Trip and Come Home??  I just heard about this storm hours ago...  If I'm likely to get 18"+ I'll do it.  Less than 18 I'll have to miss it.   

 

I can probably just book a flight Friday night on SW now and cancel late since I don't lose the money.   BUT is getting in mid-day Friday too late?  

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I don't wanna make your life decisions for you, but it seems like you have a decent shot at 18"+

[ROOSTA]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:08 AM, Ginx snewx said:

I won TQs contest on a couple of storms. Don S was the best

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TQ is still around. Still runs contests although I no longer participate. Year (2) I won the seasonal forecast, and a storm or two.   

[weathafella]

Captured in a good spot!  LBOT 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:11 AM, Henry's Weather said:

I don't wanna make your life decisions for you, but it seems like you have a decent shot at 18"+

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We really don’t need him pounding his keyboard in anger if he returns to RI and manages ‘only’ 14” when he was looking for 24”. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:13 AM, weathafella said:

Captured in a good spot!  LBOT 

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Lbot? 

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:13 AM, weathafella said:

Captured in a good spot!  LBOT 

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On Taunton? 

[weathafella]

IMHO the best euro run yet for the widest audience 

[weathafella]

Load blown on time.

[weathafella]

976 just east of the elbow.

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:15 AM, weathafella said:

Load blown on time.

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I prefer LBIVWIGEFTDO: Load blown in vicinity, which is good enough for three days out 

[weathafella]

972 peak

 

 

[dmcginvt]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:01 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My favorited AFD ever was the one from @wdrag on Sunday evening, March 4, 2001. Never forget reading that after I got home from my part time shift at MB

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It gives me wood and Im not ashamed to say it  I had never seen a storm so eloquently described in meteorological terms and it worked out.  I do recall a huge cutoff in snow totals and people being pissed.  But ****ing hell it was huge!!  My ex wifes car was buried in 3 ft in the Andover T parking lot!  I was so happy to dig it out.  

[Henry's Weather]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:17 AM, weathafella said:

You get to sleep on the wet spot

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Lucky me

[wxsniss]

Yep, as anticipated from that southern shortwave, a slightly later and more east capture vs. 12z

Looks like it gets to BM, then crawls north just east of the elbow

A (desired) tic east compared to 12z, and a great solution for much of New England

 

[weathafella]

A magnificent euro run.   Hopefully correct.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Fairly big move ne with later mid level closure. Expected this but it’s a little nerving it moved towards the trashy east solutions so quickly. 

[weathafella]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:20 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Fairly big move ne with later mid level closure. Expected this but it’s a little nerving it moved towards the trashy east solutions so quickly. 

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Uk and to a lesser extent gfs miss the capture.   

[Henry's Weather]

NARCAN is nuts

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:15 AM, weathafella said:

Load blown on time.

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I knew that LBSW was BS.

[wxsniss]

Literally tracks directly north from BM between hr 90-96 as it gets captured

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:18 AM, wxsniss said:

Yep, as anticipated from that southern shortwave, a slightly later and more east capture vs. 12z

Looks like it gets to BM, then crawls north just east of the elbow

A (desired) tic east compared to 12z, and a great solution for much of New England

 

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AWT

[Ginx snewx]

Rock and roll kuchie ku

[wxsniss]

[Henry's Weather]

I think some can start getting excited for something potentially historic. The storm forms in roughly 72 hours.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:24 AM, Ginx snewx said:

Rock and roll kuchie ku

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We take! That’s glorious for everyone. 

[CoastalWx]

That would be a deffy from maybe Kevin or just east to Ray. 

[Henry's Weather]

Can someone send some info on 10m winds?

[WeatherWilly]

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:17 AM, dmcginvt said:

It gives me wood and Im not ashamed to say it  I had never seen a storm so eloquently described in meteorological terms and it worked out.  I do recall a huge cutoff in snow totals and people being pissed.  But ****ing hell it was huge!!  My ex wifes car was buried in 3 ft in the Andover T parking lot!  I was so happy to dig it out.  

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Well, it didn't totally work out...he described 10' drifts and a storm equal to or exceeding 1978, but phase was less proficient than expected.

[dmcginvt]

  On 1/26/2022 at 6:12 AM, ROOSTA said:

TQ is still around. Still runs contests although I no longer participate. Year (2) I won the seasonal forecast, and a storm or two.   

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I won the whole yr once, got a kocin snowstorm book cant complain!!