Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gf’s would deform someone in SNE something sick 

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Came east a bit. Not great but not a huge change from 18z.

dProg/dt of the upper levels is pretty close. It looks shifted a little shallower with the trough.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, RDRY said:

GFS -- exit stage right.

You're just daring Anthony to say "progressive", aren't you?

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

I’ve seen the GFS do this with past big storms. Loses the storm in the mid-range only to join the other models within 48 hours.

Always happens 

[Typhoon Tip]

Very poor continuity with southern contribution.  Can’t even really see any kind of trend with that aspect. 

also seeing some issues with N stream too, tho those are more subtle. It’s trying to kick. 

[CT Rain]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

dProg/dt of the upper levels is pretty close. It looks shifted a little shallower with the trough.

Maybe a bit east with the trough axis too?

Anyway if that verifies I'll absolutely lose it.

[qg_omega]

Amazing how consistent GFS has been, it’s just laying waste to the Euro storm after storm.  Everyone knows the risk is a whiff here (besides Pope who argues this cuts to Buffalo)

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, CT Rain said:

Maybe a bit east with the trough axis too?

Anyway if that verifies I'll absolutely lose it.

On air?

[OceanStWx]

4 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

it is toasterific for western ct

It's better than 00z and 06z were, but my point is more that the changes were noise in the grand scheme of things at day 3.5-4. Nothing about that run confirms anything, but it also doesn't take anything off the table either.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Buried

[JC-CT]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's better than 00z and 06z were, but my point is more that the changes were noise in the grand scheme of things at day 3.5-4. Nothing about that run confirms anything, but it also doesn't take anything off the table either.

Sure, I agree.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

PAC vort will be in the NAM's domain in 12 hours. Maybe it caves to the GFS then? Just speculating, not saying its likely.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, qg_omega said:

Amazing how consistent GFS has been, it’s just laying waste to the Euro storm after storm.  Everyone knows the risk is a whiff here (besides Pope who argues this cuts to Buffalo)

The GFS has def done better than the Euro this season. I don't think anyone should discount tonight's run. 

[OceanStWx]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Buried

If you stack 4 IPAs on top of each other and the snow is still over the top of the top can, you've got more than 2 feet.

[JC-CT]

i'd make babies with the canadian though

[George001]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

The GFS has def done better than the Euro this season. I don't think anyone should discount tonight's run. 

I can and will. Gfs has had issues with burying the the energy out west all year. 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Maybe a bit east with the trough axis too?

Anyway if that verifies I'll absolutely lose it.

Yeah, definitely a touch east at 500. But it also looks more dynamic, probably why it is still able to throw precip far enough west.

[78Blizzard]

The GFS followed what the crappy RGEM was selling.  Extrapolated, the RGEM is headed further east as well.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

If you stack 4 IPAs on top of each other and the snow is still over the top of the top can, you've got more than 2 feet.

I’ll have to try that.  Not much has changed here as far as results for a solid day.  Models bury here with 12”+ or substantially more.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

The GFS has def done better than the Euro this season. I don't think anyone should discount tonight's run. 

Depends on the rest of the suite.  If it’s alone toss it or weigh it much less 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

CMC better:

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting runs....had a telehealth tonight, so tied up.

First Call tomorrow

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’ll have to try that.  Not much has changed here as far as results for a solid day.  Models bury here with 12”+ or substantially more.

Actually I may try and stack some up in front of my security cam so I can watch while I'm at work. 

[78Blizzard]

Just now, weathafella said:

Depends on the rest of the suite.  If it’s alone toss it or weigh it much less 

GFS has cut qpf in half since 12z.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian looks like it rides close to 70W.

[JC-CT]

if there was ever a time where the ggem could be right, please let this be the first time.

[George001]

great start to the 0z runs. The Canadian looks like it came west. 

[PhineasC]

GFS is less snow than I just received over the last 3 days of moose farts. Looks like shit. Next. 

[CT Rain]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Canadian looks like it rides close to 70W.

Yeah GGEM looks tucked

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Canadian looks like it rides close to 70W.

Faster flow, later phase, so it recurves in to the Gulf of ME.

Literally the whole board wins.