Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:21 AM, dryslot said:

Well when you do a comparison on similarities upstream Wouldn't you be basing on that same result downstream?

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my head hurts way too much to try to understand this

[dryslot]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:22 AM, JC-CT said:

my head hurts way too much to try to understand this

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Not hard.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:19 AM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s still closing it off down south but it’s not capturing it quite as fast I don’t think. The capture would prob be a little bit further northeast of the 12z run but not too far off. 

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As expected. It will be a LBRF when we get inside 48hr.

[HalloweenGale]

It's going to be loud as hell Saturday.

[CT Rain]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:19 AM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s still closing it off down south but it’s not capturing it quite as fast I don’t think. The capture would prob be a little bit further northeast of the 12z run but not too far off. 

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At least at 90h vs 96h it's a smidge NW on this run than the previous run at the surface. 

[Sn0waddict]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:24 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

As expected. It will be a LBRF when we get inside 48hr.

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LBRF?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:22 AM, MJO812 said:

Not even close 

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ya know, i don't really want to do this right now, but it's starting to annoy me.

if you think this is "not even close" for 90 hours out concerning a major extratropical cyclone then all the more power to you

[brooklynwx99]

500mb on the ECMWF is much more backed with SE-ly flow, while the GFS remains rather progressive despite the great moves aloft

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:24 AM, Sn0waddict said:

LBRF?

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Load Blown Ray’s Face

I know, the acronyms are getting out of control. My apologies I added another one.

[weatherwiz]

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

[Sn0waddict]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:26 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Load Blown Ray’s Face

I know, the acronyms are getting out of control. My apologies I added another one.

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LOL just a bit out of hand..

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:26 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Load Blown Ray’s Face

I know, the acronyms are getting out of control. My apologies I added another one.

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Oh wow, that’s not really a visual I needed.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Was selfishly hoping euro would be even more tucked then 12z for the sole purpose that when it does it eventually slide east, we built enough wiggle for it.

[CoastalWx]

For shits and giggles, BUFKIT at PYM and HYA is   

[dryslot]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:25 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

500mb on the ECMWF is much more backed with SE-ly flow, while the GFS remains rather progressive despite the great moves aloft

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That's a great illustration right there to the differences.

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:25 AM, JC-CT said:

ya know, i don't really want to do this right now, but it's starting to annoy me.

if you think this is "not even close" for 90 hours out concerning a major subtropical cyclone then all the more power to you

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Look at how the heights curl back on the Euro vs the GFS. It's subtle but would lead to a more amplified SLP and a little bit closer to coast than the GFS.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:27 AM, weatherwiz said:

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

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Too early for that stuff.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:29 AM, dryslot said:

That's a great illustration right there to the differences.

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yeah...noise. check next cycle, they will probably both be at least that different.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:27 AM, weatherwiz said:

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

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A 30mi jog west is still possible.

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:29 AM, dryslot said:

That's a great illustration right there to the differences.

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He ninja'd me.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:27 AM, weatherwiz said:

That is an absolute crushing in SE MA. With a giant screw job in the CTRV

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Well, the CRV people are always mentally prepared for these scenarios.

Doesn’t mean I won’t bitch but I expect Dave, 30mi E of me in Hubbardston to get 15”+ while I get 4-5” of sand. 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:29 AM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Look at how the heights curl back on the Euro vs the GFS. It's subtle but would lead to a more amplified SLP and a little bit closer to coast than the GFS.

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I was looking at a more macro view of the overall setup they've settled into. not trying to resolve differences between them that neither model has resolved itself anyway.

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:29 AM, CoastalWx said:

Too early for that stuff.

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In these sense of where this occurs but it's likely pretty right with this idea. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:32 AM, weatherwiz said:

In these sense of where this occurs but it's likely pretty right with this idea. 

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I know what you mean, but so many variables right now. But if you are just playing around like I was with BUFKIT, weenie away.

[JC-CT]

2 cycles ago we were worried that a complete whiff was still in play, and now you want to argue that those two runs "aren't even close" to each other. gtfoh

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:24 AM, CT Rain said:

At least at 90h vs 96h it's a smidge NW on this run than the previous run at the surface. 

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Yeah that’s interesting even though H5 looked slightly less zonked. 

[codfishsnowman]

  On 1/25/2022 at 11:00 PM, IowaStorm05 said:

I told you. Climate change is causing an increase in monumental blockbusters over the entirety of New England, commingling with the occasional winter without 1 inch of snow on Nantucket.

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Nantucket has had some monster snows over the years, your so hot to trot on the south coast/Islands getting shut out as a phenomenon related to climate change. Never know, maybe this one winds up being ACKs next 2 footer

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:30 AM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

A 30mi jog west is still possible.

 

 

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It’s not just placement of the frontogenesis that screws the valley.  Hours of Easterly fetch tend to be underwhelming unless you are above 800’ elevation. 

[CoastalWx]

 

[CT Rain]

  On 1/26/2022 at 12:34 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that’s interesting even though H5 looked slightly less zonked. 

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The whole thing looked a smidge slower too. Maybe an hour or two slower with the H5 evolution?