Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[JC-CT]

Euro is still stronger with the northern stream and has a higher pacific ridge. Overall I think this run will be decent?

[JC-CT]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Euro is still stronger with the northern stream and has a higher pacific ridge. Overall I think this run will be decent?

for what we see of it, obviously

[Cold Miser]

2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Remind her of snow days in June. 

She says, Right now she needs a snow day, and doesn't care about June. lol...I think the school year is getting to her and the children "make her sad" lol

[OceanStWx]

56 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

BOX has learned nothing since the Juno snow map fiasco.

I actually wonder if that map isn't just a GFS clown map.

We don't really have that many QPF sources to use beyond 60 hours.

You have your standard GFS, GEM, and Euro runs, plus WPC's QPF (usually their super-ensemble blend) and the NBM. This would appear closer to the WPC blend, so at least it's using some ensemble data and not just deterministic runs.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

for what we see of it, obviously

Looks great at 90

[JC-CT]

The Euro ends up at a very similar place to the 18z GFS

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Euro is still stronger with the northern stream and has a higher pacific ridge. Overall I think this run will be decent?

I agree and I think that Jack zone will make it to E CT/W RI

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

The Euro ends up at a very similar place to the 18z GFS

Nit really if you loop it.  It’s tugged due north by 90.

[JC-CT]

Just now, weathafella said:

Nit really if you loop it.  It’s tugged due north by 90.

The GFS did that too. The OP...not the GEFS.

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

Nit really if you loop it.  It’s tugged due north by 90.

I didn't see the comparison to the GFS @H5 at all.

[JC-CT]

I agree it would end up a little more tucked, but that level of detail is kind of noise right now

[PWMan]

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll never forget in the run up to Feb 2013 the NAM spitting out 4" QPF for PWM. Of course that in and of itself was enough to tease a historic event incoming despite it being a fantasyland forecast.

That was a great storm here, partly because of the pre-game event leading into the main show.

Noticed that the GYX pm AFD is fairly understated, which seems appropriate at this stage. I have to admit that I told my wife this evening that we should make sure we do any needed grocery shopping during the day tomorrow because it looks like something potentially big is coming and I'm assuming that the hype machine could be in overdrive by tomorrow night. 

[dryslot]

Just now, JC-CT said:

The GFS did that too. The OP...not the GEFS.

I don't see the comparison.

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

I didn't see the comparison to the GFS @H5 at all.

aight

[SouthCoastMA]

any sort of compromise is good with me. even if it's 80/20

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

I don't see the comparison.

i guess. i think it's not hard to see a lot of similarities if you aren't looking for them to be exact clones at 90 hours out. but to each their own.

[CoastalWx]

It actually was a little more intense with MSLP, but not sure it was going to tuck as much? Extrapolating out would have been a slaugtering.

[Damage In Tolland]

The beer maybe?

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

I agree it would end up a little more tucked, but that level of detail is kind of noise right now

I think there's going to be a lot of noise in the next 24-36 hrs............

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I feel pretty comfortable tossing the 18z GEFS. Just a huge outlier. 

It senses to me as thought entire product systemically is dropping/..or perhaps 'missing' some 20% of the momentum of prior cycles - cross guidance too. It's just paltrier ... NCEP cited this notion about a strong S/W mechanical presence sending s/w ridging out ahead, to where it constructively interferes with the Atlantic L/W ridging... (Euro), and so ... ( and I agree with them ) missing 20% leads to an an early escape - it's interesting the oper. version performed as it did. It appears be western member now... 

Man.. this model has for days really been attempting least plausible reason it can to diminish the specter of this thing LOL... 

I guess NCEP's had it. They're flying reco I hear ?   Pretty amazing... they must feel as we do that the larger scale hemisphere is anchoring this system, so it's "worth it" - I dunno. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It actually was a little more intense with MSLP, but not sure it was going to tuck as much? Extrapolating out would have been a slaugtering.

It’s still closing it off down south but it’s not capturing it quite as fast I don’t think. The capture would prob be a little bit further northeast of the 12z run but not too far off. 

[IowaStorm05]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It senses to me as thought it the product systemically is dropping/..or perhaps 'missing' some 20% of the momentum of prior cycles - cross guidance too. It's just paltrier ... NCEP cited this notion about a strong S/W mechanical presence sending s/w ridging out ahead, to where it constructively interferes with the Atlantic L/W ridging... (Euro), and so ... ( and I agree with them ) missing 20% leads to an an early escape - it's interesting the oper. version performed as it did. It appears be western member now... 

Man.. this model has for days really been attempting lead plausible reason it can to diminish the specter of this thing LOL... 

I guess NCEP's had it. They're flying reco I hear ?   Pretty amazing... they must feel as we do that the larger scale hemisphere is anchoring this system, so it's "worth it" - I dunno. 

Because the model is beside itself about how major this storm really is it cannot believe it’s own calculations.

[qg_omega]

East trend is undeniable, congrats SNE

[Baroclinic Zone]

 

[WeatherWilly]

Just now, qg_omega said:

East trend is undeniable, congrats SNE

Thanks

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

i guess. i think it's not hard to see a lot of similarities if you aren't looking for them to be exact clones at 90 hours out. but to each their own.

Well when you do a comparison on similarities upstream Wouldn't you be basing on that same result downstream?

[weathafella]

These H5 differences make a big difference on the ground

 

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s still closing it off down south but it’s not capturing it quite as fast I don’t think. The capture would prob be a little bit further northeast of the 12z run but not too far off. 

That's how it looked to me too. I'm blown away how this has a warm core with it LOL. It's not just a 1C anomaly at 850...it's a deep core.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

East trend is undeniable, congrats SNE

What trended east ?

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The Euro ends up at a very similar place to the 18z GFS

Not even close