Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Ginx snewx]

That's the GFS run I figured was coming Holy crap

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Watches by 12z Wed?

Sure? 

I mean, to me I think the risk is Friday impacts to school and evening commute are much greater than consensus right now.

[moneypitmike]

Sits and spins on/near the BM

[wxsniss]

Further south

Almost demonstrates the other extreme what happens if it does not close off until it's farther east

[CT Rain]

Just now, wxsniss said:

Further south

Almost demonstrates the other extreme what happens if it does not close off until it's farther east

Yeah it does take an extra few ticks to close off and get going.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

Sits and spins on/near the BM

No

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

25 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Probably because it was forecasted on an Atari 2600 and WWII radar.

AccuWeather forecaster on 1010 WINS radio in NYC said 3 to 18 inches.  I think NYC was about 18 inches, we were way over, and New England was insane, of course.  Grandma, buried in Marshfield, lived in North Quincy.

 

I vaguely remember a March (April?) snow on Long Island that was rain in BOS because it was so man bite dog, although I think 1888 was bigger NYC than BOS.  JoeForAlb just posted this in NYC forum (2 tabs for the big ones)

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Sits and spins on/near the BM

Like a stripper on you at the Blue?

[CT Valley Dryslot]

That was actually one of the more "western" GFS solutions.

Most have been further east than this.

[DavisStraight]

Need it to come a little more west for maximum impact

[WeatherWilly]

Not ideal for many but Im still ok with it

[weathafella]

All models now in their respective biases.   

[dryslot]

Weaker east a tic or two this run, On to 0z.

[ROOSTA]

LOCK and LOADED!
Details..., the nuances will define the haves and those who get really haves. From here on out, noise, a wobble here or there.
I'm sold.  

[PhineasC]

Crappier than 12z. The posts here made it seem like this was a monster run until I looked. 

[IowaStorm05]

18z runs are comparatively sketchy to 0z and 12z ones anyway and the 18 GFS still slugs us pretty dang good 

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Crappier than 12z. The posts here made it seem like this was a monster run until I looked. 

you have to look at the context of the locations of each poster. it was further west and stronger for most of us, down here. for you and dryslot, it was definitely further east and weaker. they are both correct.

[hooralph]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Crappier than 12z. The posts here made it seem like this was a monster run until I looked. 

Every model run from here on out will get a play-by-play from Gus Johnson.

[wxsniss]

Euro-GFS blend would keep most of this subforum happy

No clear takeaway trends at 18z imo, and we're still dancing around the fullest potential of this.

Will commented on the western ridge being a hair flatter on 18z GFS... might be at least in part why this tracked farther despite the earlier phase interaction. Another thing to watch.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

2 minutes ago, IowaStorm05 said:

18z runs are comparatively sketchy to 0z and 12z ones anyway and the 18 GFS still slugs us pretty dang good 

Old data. We toss.

[dryslot]

 

Closed H5 low over ack on the 12z, Doesn't close until it gets close to CAR 18z is the difference, for up here, South didn't matter much.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

you have to look at the context of the locations of each poster. it was further west and stronger for most of us, down here. for you and dryslot, it was definitely further east and weaker. they are both correct.

Yeah it didn’t hook left as much into gulf of maine. It was kind of discombobulated in capturing the low and closing off H5.  

[mreaves]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The Germans are east again.

That’s strange. Historically the Germans have wanted to stay away from the Eastern Front

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Crappier than 12z. The posts here made it seem like this was a monster run until I looked. 

It’s better overall from what I’m seeing but it suppressing you ur way. 
 

it’s inched west overall. Deeper QPF into SE zones down thugs way  etc

dont sweat it though. This model’s in mid trend … I’m suspecting 00z my be interesting. 
 

[cut]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s better overall from what I’m seeing but it suppressing you ur way. 
 

it’s inched west overall. Deeper QPF into SE zones down thugs way  etc

dont sweat it though. This model’s in mid trend … I’m suspecting 00z my be interesting. 
 

Mid trend as in moving a bit westward correct?

[JC-CT]

Why is the GEFS terrible

[Connecticut Appleman]

Looks to me that the GEFS are really sliding east without much northernly movement through 96 hours.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Why is the GEFS terrible

Woof

 

[JC-CT]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Woof

 

Just...weird. burp?

[ORH_wxman]

That is a lot worse than the 12z GEFS. Kind of hard to buy that though.