Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[ariof]

Just going to point out that this thread is now at 121 pages and we are only getting into the meso range. And the local stores aren't yet out of two-prong toasters (yet).

[dryslot]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Almost forgot 18z GFS is running. Anthony forgot to remind us...what a slacker 

He hasn't been kicked out of the NYC thread yet.

[JC-CT]

Just now, ariof said:

Just going to point out that this thread is now at 121 pages and we are only getting into the meso range. And the local stores aren't yet out of two-prong toasters (yet).

what's a local store? is that a setting on your amazon prime account?

[dryslot]

May end up being black friday on amazon after the 0z runs tonight come out.

[PhineasC]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The Germans are east again.

Damn, that Russian invasion of Ukraine really must have gotten out of hand.

[weathafella]

I just looked at the clown range NAM (84 hours).  Impressive 

[tunafish]

Hadn't this mentioned in the PBP of the NAM, or with the GFS that's running now, so I'm posting it here:

 

 

[weathafella]

Looking early in the run it seems the trend will be more amped 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

Looking early in the run it seems the trend will be more amped 

Crushing coming. 

[jbenedet]

NAM (of all models) has snow starting for most by Friday p.m. Western Areas early afternoon. Tucked = earlier.

tick tick 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Looking early in the run it seems the trend will be more amped 

It should. The Northern and southern streams are more cohesive early on. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Just now, jbenedet said:

NAM (of all models) has snow starting for most by Friday p.m. Tucked = earlier.

tick tick 

Watches by 12z Wed?

[JKEisMan]

tick tock tuck

 

[JC-CT]

4 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Hadn't this mentioned in the PBP of the NAM, or with the GFS that's running now, so I'm posting it here:

 

 

I told you everything you need to know about what the NAM is doing/showing.

[mcglups]

2 hours ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

RECON data in for 0z tonight.  The threat is officially real now.

557 
NOUS42 KNHC 251835
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0135 PM EST TUE 25 JANUARY 2022
SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
         VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z JANUARY 2022
         WSPOD NUMBER.....21-056

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE MISSION ALONG
       TRACK 65 FOR 28/0000Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 49
       A. 27/0000Z
       B. NOAA9 01WSC IOP04
       C. 26/1730Z
       D. 30 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 
          20.0N 180.0W, 20.0N 155.0W, 40.0N 155.0W, AND 40.0N 180.0W.
       E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 26/2030Z-27/0230Z
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       AND THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT MAY FLY TWO CONCURRENT
       ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
       PACIFIC FOR THE 28/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.
    3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK:  A USAF RESERVE WC-130J AIRCRAFT
       MAY FLY ANOTHER ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS MISSION OVER THE EASTERN
       AND CENTRAL PACIFIC FOR THE 29/0000Z SYNOPTIC TIME.

$$
WJM

Thank you for sharing this. I am a bit familiar with reading the data with respect to drops within tropical systems, but unclear how to interpret the data within synoptic baroclinic flow. If you could provide some links or references, that is most appreciated. Thank you.

 

 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is going to be major

[JC-CT]

we might get something like a 90/10 cave to euro

[TalcottWx]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Why an Android 32 isn't good enough? I have seen your chase videos, early onset Parkinsons?

What in Sam hell is an android 32. I have note 20 ultra thing is a beast. Love android 

[dryslot]

Going to be a powder keg this run, Earlier phase coming.

[weatherwiz]

It's definitely stronger and a bit more west with the ridge axis compared to the 12z run and 18z NAM...here we go

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

S stream is further east while the n stream is digging further sw...oh o. 

[ORH_wxman]

This should be pretty big. thought he western ridge is not as amped as the Euro, so we probably aren't getting a Euro solution.....but the southern stream is actually more incorporated than the Euro.

[dryslot]

Its further south so it may close further south too.

[JC-CT]

Just now, DotRat_Wx said:

What in Sam hell is an android 32. I have note 20 ultra thing is a beast. Love android 

i'm impatiently waiting for the s22 ultra

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Better at h5 but still doggy doo for WOR. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

So the NAM/GFS are very similar @ 84, but the surface is different.

 

GFS may be chasing the convection.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Better at h5 but still doggy doo for WOR. 

Western ridge was flatter than the Euro which makes a difference. The GFS also has significantly lower heights over Quebec than the Euro. But that was still a good trend,.

[dryslot]

Still not closed off, 6mb weaker then 12z.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

So the NAM/GFS are very similar @ 84, but the surface is different.

 

GFS may be chasing the convection.

Say it ain't so!!!!

[CT Valley Dryslot]

This isn't too far off from the BM.