Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[weatherwiz]

Some decent WAA well out ahead of it with just enough lift

 

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Plenty of PFE already

"Predecessor Freakout Event"

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:01 PM, dryslot said:

PSE in this instance lol

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Let's hope this potential biggie didn't cause us to PE...

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 8:21 PM, Modfan2 said:

 @CT Rain station needs to camp out on Ekonk hill by you or on Rt 171 near Woodstock Fair for some great drifting 

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Oh there will be pics

[Typhoon Tip]

This is not a “warm core” cyclogenesis or maintenance stages either, unless it can be specifically analyzed that way … etc

“Warm seclusion” is a separate phenomenon that is not that uncommon with RI cyclones 

This is a baroclinic system; different thermodynamic engine to barotropic 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:04 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Oh there will be pics

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now's the time to upgrade the camera...by like 50 generations 

[SouthCoastMA]

I've already followed this storm far too long, and we are still 96 hours away - normally I'm pretty level headed, but I feel like I could be a melt candidate. Just giving the board a proper heads up. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:04 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

This is not a “warm core” cyclogenesis or maintenance stages either, unless it can be specifically analyzed that way … etc

“Warm seclusion” is a separate phenomenon that is not that uncommon with RI cyclones 

This is a baroclinic system; different thermodynamic engine to barotropic 

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Great point. I heard PRE and my tropical senses went into high gear haha.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There will be a run or two that sends the dryslot into interior CNE and jackpots Plattsburgh, NY that will cause a bunch of meltdowns until an hour later when none of the other models follow it.

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I expect the 3K to be like 940mb east of PYM at some point.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

It's a snowstorm, not Hurricane Wilma.

[Boston Bulldog]

Early prediction for tonight's 0z NAM

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:06 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I've already followed this storm far too long, and we are still 96 hours away - normally I'm pretty level headed, but I feel like I could be a melt candidate. Just giving the board a proper heads up. 

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Yeah a lot of time left. It really starts Friday night, but yeah......I'm sure we will see some changes....although I don't expect it to be dramatic.

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:09 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

It's a snowstorm, not Hurricane Wilma.

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Better than Hurricane Henri.

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:51 PM, WeatherHappens said:

this is looking just like the storm on Jan 15 1897.....that storm was amazing....anyone else remember that one?

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No, but February 1898 tracked from Palm Beach to Eastport.  That one followed a crazy baroclinic boundary, with all-time cold to the west.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:05 PM, weatherwiz said:

now's the time to upgrade the camera...by like 50 generations 

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Why an Android 32 isn't good enough? I have seen your chase videos, early onset Parkinsons?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:09 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

It's a snowstorm, not Hurricane Wilma.

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It's Jimmy Garoppolo

[WxFreak11]

  On 1/25/2022 at 8:47 PM, MJO812 said:

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That is a massive shield of precipitation 

 

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:13 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Why an Android 32 isn't good enough? I have seen your chase videos, early onset Parkinsons?

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Beautiful. 

I have a shaky hand. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

I can't read all these posts what with work getting in the way...but has anyone mentioned the NAM looking great?

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:14 PM, weatherwiz said:

Beautiful. 

I have a shaky hand. 

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Me too. Nerve damage from ski accident 

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:14 PM, WxFreak11 said:

That is a massive shield of precipitation 

 

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The DGEX would show 922mb in few more frames, lol

[weatherwiz]

Just give me a 980's or 970's low as it's passing southeast. Getting anything deeper (especially too intense deepening) and bad things happen. Precip starts to get more banded so while some cash in you need to be lucky and occlusion can happen to rapidly so you choke off the moist inflow and the CCB just shuts off and everything goes to poop. Save the 950's for tropical 

[JC-CT]

The NAM looks a lot like it did for tonight, 84 hours ago.

I strongly suggest not taking it seriously.

[cut]

I remember a storm while I was at Lowell -  the only one of the year  _ where it snowed pixy dust for like 12 hour or more before the big show. The sun was also shining softly thru high cirrus clouds so the snow was sparkling as it dropped thru the air. I forget what year but I think it was when was in dorms my freshmen year - 1987. I'm wondering if that was PRE.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:16 PM, JC-CT said:

The NAM looks a lot like it did for tonight, 84 hours ago.

I strongly suggest not taking it seriously.

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[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:09 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

It's a snowstorm, not Hurricane Wilma.

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White Juanita?

[George001]

The nam didn’t bury as much energy out west

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM is dragging the southern stream compared to 12z....so the NAM didn't start a new trend for all 18z guidance.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:17 PM, JC-CT said:

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Clouds?

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 9:18 PM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM is dragging the southern stream compared to 12z....so the NAM didn't start a new trend for all 18z guidance.

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ggem is the opposite - and amped