Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CT Valley Dryslot]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:12 PM, JC-CT said:

is that the guy who started the nyc weenie board?

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Yeah.

I got perma-banned from it last year for seemingly no reason.

Edit: checked, still banned.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:11 PM, Ericjcrash said:

Maybe buy a bulk pack of wipeys. More secretions on deck.

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Plenty of wipes here with 2 toddlers but it still wasn’t enough. Reaching for the bleach now…

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/25/2022 at 6:50 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Euro has pretty much all of SNE with 925mb winds greater than 75 kts Saturday afternoon. 925s what...1500 ft up?

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that is just when my flight is supposed to land.  Oy.  The earlier closing off didn't seem to slow it down

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:09 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Fifth  … 1978 isn’t really good total meteorological analog ?

when did that come up and why/how?

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I tried to explain this to a few, but Kev just mocked me. 

Have at it.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:13 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Yeah.

I got perma-banned from it last year for seemingly no reason.

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ha, nice. yeah I poked around the first year or so but the guy is very angry. I popped in like 2 or 3 days ago to see what the mood was there and they were all ready to jump off a bridge.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I tried to explain this to a few, but Kev just mocked me. 

Have at it.

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'78 was a totally different evolution....the impact could maybe be similar in a couple spots if this one is bad enough....but yeah, no reason to really break it out at this point.

[UnitedWx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:13 PM, WeatherWilly said:

I will never buy a stalling low or a slow moving storm in this era of quick hitters. I just hope the track remains favorable. 

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Its the mechanics and evolution of this type of storm that can possibly cause a several hour stall/slow down. No, its not a given however we aren't in a particularly fast flow right now 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:16 PM, ORH_wxman said:

'78 was a totally different evolution....the impact could maybe be similar in a couple spots if this one is bad enough....but yeah, no reason to really break it out at this point.

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what would be a good h5 analog?

[NorEastermass128]

  On 1/25/2022 at 6:53 PM, dendrite said:

Nah. We go back further.

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I’m a late ‘90s kid. You early ‘90s. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:16 PM, ORH_wxman said:

'78 was a totally different evolution....the impact could maybe be similar in a couple spots if this one is bad enough....but yeah, no reason to really break it out at this point.

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There isn't strong enough consensus yet for that type of stall or placement.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 6:39 PM, JC-CT said:

I'm leaning towards selling 19:1 ratios with 30-50 mph winds a few hundred meters off the deck.

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19 to 1? This is typical same as Jan 11 15. Moosup data

[CT Valley Dryslot]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:18 PM, JC-CT said:

what would be a good h5 analog?

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CIPS says its January 15-17, 2005. Based off 12z GFS.

[forkyfork]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:13 PM, WeatherWilly said:

I will never buy a stalling low or a slow moving storm in this era of quick hitters. I just hope the track remains favorable. 

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it's going to stall and loop as the system occludes. could be east of nj or east of maine

[Go Kart Mozart]

Someone show us the members...ensemble that is.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

JMA:

 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:20 PM, Ginx snewx said:

19 to 1? This is typical same as Jan 11 15. Moosup data

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well I took that willimantic 24" and since it is right on the 1.25/1 cutoff line, I used 1.25 qpf. 19:1, what did I screw up?

[jbenedet]

I'm guessing that sea eagle will be leaving it's new pad in boothbay Hahbah.

 

Kinda pissed I missed the chance to head up there.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:18 PM, JC-CT said:

what would be a good h5 analog?

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Jan 2015 is still the closest IMHO but it deepens the trough a bit more in the southeast....it's almost a cross between that one and boxing day 2010. The larger scale trough/ridge positions are very close to Jan 2015 but the ULL itself is a little deeper down south sort of like Boxing day was....but not as deep as Boxing day, which is why I say it's kind of a hybrid between the two.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

February 11-13, 2006 and January 25-27, 2011 also score high on CIPS.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:20 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

CIPS says its January 15-17, 2005. Based off 12z GFS.

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which was what? The Jan 2005 blizzard was a week after that

[dendrite]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:22 PM, JC-CT said:

well I took that willimantic 24" and since it is right on the 1.25/1 cutoff line, I used 1.25 qpf. 19:1, what did I screw up?

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I think Ginxy is using Cobb there.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:23 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 2015 is still the closest IMHO but it deepens the trough a bit more in the southeast....it's almost a cross between that one and boxing day 2010. The larger scale trough/ridge positions are very close to Jan 2015 but the ULL itself is a little deeper down south sort of like Boxing day was....but not as deep as Boxing day, which is why I say it's kind of a hybrid between the two.

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i do see boxing day showing up on cips repeatedly

[brooklynwx99]

textbook

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 6:51 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Storm is a winner when a screw zone nets 20"

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Runaway says sell like Kooch. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

JMA has lead the way for many days, never wavering. Bow to him...

[powderfreak]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:09 PM, PhineasC said:

These runs all look good here. I was totally whiffed by the 06z gfs. I want to avoid that. Not expecting 2 feet here. 

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All we ask for is a participation trophy.

I’d take 3-6” and run. 12z EURO was the best, others get crushed but if we could snag 6-10” of mid-level goodies then that’s awesome.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:23 PM, JC-CT said:

which was what? The Jan 2005 blizzard was a week after that

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That was a grazer for eastern areas....funny, we narrowly missed a biggie there and I remember being kind of pissed, but then a week later we got payback.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I tried to explain this to a few, but Kev just mocked me. 

Have at it.

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Mocked? I think it’s got some similarities. No more no less. You just start calling people dumb and clueless when they express other thoughts than the box you have yours in 

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/25/2022 at 7:23 PM, JC-CT said:

which was what? The Jan 2005 blizzard was a week after that

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http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/NARR/2005/us0115.php

Start there and toggle thru the next 2 days.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/25/2022 at 6:53 PM, FXWX said:

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled.  I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing.  Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall.  Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles.  Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

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I agree. When I disputed your point the other day, all I meant was that guidance would over correct in that direction, before ultimately coming back and closing later...however, I fully expected some of these runs to close it off very quickly, and the most likely candidate is always the EURO in my experience.

  On 1/25/2022 at 6:35 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Euro is the only one closing this off with rapid H5 deepening that early and southwest...I don't think #2 is off the table whatsoever.

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I absolutely agree that the EURO is too fast and far SW with closing off as it stands now. but I just don't want it to trend too much before correcting. But you are right....that  is probably not off of the table. The CF I feel is...I understand why some don't want it discussed yet, blah , blah, but its my opinion.