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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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  On 1/25/2022 at 6:44 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

At the same pub in Europe. Day and night, around the clock.

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Heading to England next week.  I'll try to find the pub where the crazy uncle hangs out.  A few pints and a few single malts, and he'll be putting out enough major blizzards to keep George happy.

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Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled.  I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing.  Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall.  Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles.  Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

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  On 1/25/2022 at 6:50 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

The Euro has pretty much all of SNE with 925mb winds greater than 75 kts Saturday afternoon. 925s what...1500 ft up?

925wh.us_ne.png

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About 2,500 feet.

That is insane. Dendrites will be ripped to shreddies. Going to have to keep this in mind when making snowfall forecasts and ratios. 

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  On 1/25/2022 at 6:53 PM, FXWX said:

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled.  I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing.  Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall.  Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles.  Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

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All valid points.

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  On 1/25/2022 at 6:47 PM, JC-CT said:

Yeah, probably closest one in recent memory was Jan 2018?

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Pretty good, though I'm sure our friends in Philly and DC may beg to differ on that one. Though the NESIS scale may be imperfect, it's helpful to have some sort of metric that takes a more objective look at a storm. For my own studies, I've put together a ranked criteria to provide context for the real magnitude and impact of a given winter storm:

  1. Did I, personally, get a lot of snow?
  2. Was I awake for most of it?
  3. Did people in areas increasingly at risk of being snow-starved in light of climate change get brutally shafted after having their hopes inflated by prior guidance?
  4. Wind
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  On 1/25/2022 at 6:45 PM, powderfreak said:

Yeah you wait the whole local forecast just to see that one panel show snow.  Then I’d go back to Sportscenter for Stuart Scott (RIP) before leaving for school lol.  I think many of us snow weenies in the late ‘80s and ‘90s rolled that way between TWC and ESPN :lol:.

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Ah, yes.  And the alert tones with the red scrolling screen like the soviets were attacking…you knew sh!t was getting real!

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