Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[bristolri_wx]

Seems like we're getting all the signals we want to see 5 days out for a region wide storm.  Let's narrow the goal posts.  Realistically the 5 day forecast would be 6-12" for most unless something drastically changes like a mixing component or a weird dry slot, and then there will be some banding/jackpots that are more in the 12-18" range.  Will be fun to follow the rest of the week.  I'll take the 6" IMBY.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Why would I want to focus on Moosefart, ME?

You don't, Because i am, I can tell by whats happening in EMA as to what happens up here.

[snowman21]

7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Eastern Fairfield County, you can bet on that.

Looks like a solid 4-8 type of deal on your side of the county right now. Not close to blockbuster territory for western zones as depicted, but a good enough hit that will put you above normal for snowfall for the season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GGEM ideally would be a little closer...

The frontogen would clip HFD -BOS that way, and then CCB mechanics plugging the undercarriage super-imposing the UVM lift, would be double trouble HUGE fall rates of whatever is falling...But as is, the the former appears too far SE.

But, you know ... get real, right?  I mean, it's so powerful the CCB stuff is good for 15+ in that region anyway. I know we have zealots that feel betrayed at 15+" in a wind so violent it's a milky miasma out side, but to me that is a memorable journey.

That was March 14, 1993 for me, and much of the area (happy, Kev?)

[JC-CT]

Generally, for the New England region I think this is looking really good for the lead time. I think everyone has a good shot at a seriously significant snowfall, with the exception of an area at approximately 980' elevation along Robin Circle in Tolland, CT where I think subsidence and dryslotting will be a huge issue (and this area will also likely experience rain to start and to end). But generally for those outside this screw zone it should be a really good storm, impossible to pin down an exact jackpot area --- other than where it won't be, which is Robin Circle in Tolland, CT.

[SnowlieSnowstormson]

Triple buns is a good sign!!!

[PhineasC]

3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Biggest Euro run of our lives  (until 1am tonight)

Hold Serve?

Go East?

Go West?  If it comes in at 955mb on benchmark with a capture media will really start to honk

Mostly hold serve, slight shift west.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You don't, Because i am, I can tell by whats happening in EMA as to what happens up here.

Do you tend to do well when E Mass gets 3 feet of snow? LOL

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Mostly hold serve, slight shift west.

west?

[forkyfork]

with the way that system digs out of canada this could so easily hook west

[dryslot]

If i had to pick, I would want the Euro further north before it closes off.

[PhineasC]

Just now, JC-CT said:

west?

Would like to see a track closer to Cape Cod, personally.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, PhineasC said:

Do you tend to do well when E Mass gets 3 feet of snow? LOL

Nope.

[JC-CT]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Would like to see a track closer to Cape Cod, personally.

i thought you were saying what you thought it would do, not what you wanted it to do?

[MJO812]

Euro running 

[Spanks45]

Just now, forkyfork said:

with the way that system digs out of canada this could so easily hook west

Was it the system in March 2018 that did this? Began ticking west and didn't stop until it was over....I think most did well, but sleet took numbers down by a lot....

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That was March 14, 1993 for me, and much of the area (happy, Kev?)

Your boy Fish melting it as fast as he can type 

 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Nope.

Well, 2/8/13 right? I think some others you did well, Jan '11, Jan '15 etc.

[dryslot]

Forky wants a sandy redux.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro running 

how fast?

[PhineasC]

Just now, JC-CT said:

i thought you were saying what you thought it would do, not what you wanted it to do?

Same thing to a weenie?

I don't see it moving east. Overall vibe of 12z so far has been to shift back west, IMO. Goofball UKMET aside. Mostly it will hold serve from 00z I think.

[JC-CT]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro running 

big if true

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Was it the system in March 2018 that did this? Began ticking west and didn't stop until it was over....I think most did well, but sleet took numbers down by a lot....

March 2017. But many saw that coming. 

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Well, 2/8/13 right? I think some others you did well, Jan '11, Jan '15 etc.

Track dependent, Very sensitive to the trajectory.

[RobertSul]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro running 

 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Was it the system in March 2018 that did this? Began ticking west and didn't stop until it was over....I think most did well, but sleet took numbers down by a lot....

Mar17. Forecasted for 20+ up until go time but Upton neglected to shift the best goods NW because they didn't want NYC folk to let their guard down lol. We still ended up with 14" IIRC after the initial WAA push but H7 tracked north of us. I think Stowe got 50" from it and the ensuing upslope. 

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You don't, Because i am, I can tell by whats happening in EMA as to what happens up here.

I think you're in a great spot for this one.

[bristolri_wx]

7 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Generally, for the New England region I think this is looking really good for the lead time. I think everyone has a good shot at a seriously significant snowfall, with the exception of an area at approximately 980' elevation along Robin Circle in Tolland, CT where I think subsidence and dryslotting will be a huge issue (and this area will also likely experience rain to start and to end). But generally for those outside this screw zone it should be a really good storm, impossible to pin down an exact jackpot area --- other than where it won't be, which is Robin Circle in Tolland, CT.

Brutal screw zone....

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, bristolri_wx said:

Brutal screw zone....

yeah, very concerning

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

I think you're in a great spot for this one.

I think so.