Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Tamer 10:1 images are still 24-30" over extreme SE MA and CC.

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:09 PM, tiger_deF said:

Come Sunday morning on the GFS and it's still snowing... if this was verbatim lots of eastern areas would see well over a day of accumulating snow... and look at that vort!

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Down East Maine will get buried with blowing and drifting.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:16 PM, JC-CT said:

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Oh ya…we take. Looks fabulous. 

[George001]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:16 PM, JC-CT said:

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Holy shit that’s over 100 miles west of the last run, the low is much deeper as well. This could be the best run we have seen yet from any model.

[Warwick WX]

Great, we have a surprise birthday party for my SIL reserved at a club Saturday night here in RI.  What is the % chance this thing can go forward?  5/40/80%?

[ORH_wxman]

Lol, 952 over the BM on the GGEM. That's the kind of stuff I used to draw in my notebook in college during class when I was bored.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:15 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That capture is how you get a HECS....you need it to stall for 6-8 hours...almost all the great ones did it at least that long.

Couple rare exceptions maybe....Feb 5, 2001 for interior.

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Semantics but.. shouldn't scale/size matter for those definitions?  

I mean, the "E" and the "C" stand for East and Coast.   If this stalls and donut stuffs Boston for 30" and NYC for 2" ...is that a HECS? 

[Ginx snewx]

Yea baby

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:16 PM, SnoSki14 said:

What you mean? Think it'll go back east or west. 

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Earlier close.....SW

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

3.5 days out, save the buns.

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Bun this . Obviously anything can happen, but I think you are projecting just a bit. 
 

I’ve seen very little model support in the last few cycles of both op and ensemble models that would produce something like that 

[NeonPeon]

I would dance a jig for any major snowfall. Haven't seen one in a couple years. 

Which is why I'm looking forward to this trending west, then being assured that I'll still get significant snow after we flip back from rain, then watching a band to our west while sucking subsidence, then just as that band should move overhead it disintegrates and forms east of me. Lastly to come on here and listen to people bitching about getting only 10 inches instead of 18 while I look at 4 inches of paste. Something like that, don't want to get too specific at this stage.

[weatherwiz]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:13 PM, dryslot said:

Pwats are going to be high.

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Historic snowfall rates are probable if this verified. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, 952 over the BM on the GGEM. That's the kind of stuff I used to draw in my notebook in college during class when I was bored.

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That's the kind of stuff we routinely 40-bun George for-

[Cyclone-68]

Last time I saw an image that exciting my mom made me go to Confession 

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:51 PM, JC-CT said:

Yeah, you watch the morning weather on networks like NBC CT and all you see are total weather nerds going all weenie about it on the air, like giddy little school children in science class trying to hold back their excitement for recess so they can go look at leaves under a microscope. Trying to hold back a gigantic grin as they speak of heavy snow, wind and coastal flooding. It's despicable, really.

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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, 952 over the BM on the GGEM. That's the kind of stuff I used to draw in my notebook in college during class when I was bored.

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hmmm

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Lol, 952 over the BM on the GGEM. That's the kind of stuff I used to draw in my notebook in college during class when I was bored.

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Yep I would draw the perfect track and pressures as well. I still have a book from 10th grade with drawings and doodles. Prescient 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:19 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yea baby

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I'm so happy for our friends out there. I really am. Just spread some love back here or we'll have problems, big problems. 

[dendrite]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:20 PM, Cyclone-68 said:

Last time I saw an image that exciting my mom made me go to Confession 

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Make sure you call the Dr if it lasts for more than 4hrs

[JC-CT]

the amazing thing too is that nobody rains on the ggem

[Baroclinic Zone]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:19 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yea baby

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What model is showing this output?

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:18 PM, Warwick WX said:

Great, we have a surprise birthday party for my SIL reserved at a club Saturday night here in RI.  What is the % chance this thing can go forward?  5/40/80%?

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Not sure but I just cancelled my trip to Maine to visit my sister.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:21 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

What model is showing this output?

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looks like the 12z gfs

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:15 PM, CoastalWx said:

3.5 days out, save the buns.

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I see what you have been doing all month and it continues with this threat. Well played my friend...

[George001]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:19 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Yea baby

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3+ feet in se ma… wow 

[NorEastermass128]

Wow at everything right now. 

[dendrite]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:20 PM, JC-CT said:

 

 

hmmm

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Will drawing weenie lows in college while I was planning my liquor run.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Semantics but.. shouldn't scale/size matter for those definitions?  

I mean, the "E" and the "C" stand for East and Coast.   If this stalls and donut stuffs Boston for 30" and NYC for 2" ...is that a HECS? 

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Yeah technically you're right, but we've coopted the term over the years to mean a historical storm wherever it hits. Like we'll say "that's a HECS for Portland Maine"....kind of doesn't really make sense when you break down the acronym, but it's still easier than typing out "a historic storm for PWM"

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:20 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I'm so happy for our friends out there. I really am. Just spread some love back here or we'll have problems, big problems. 

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GGM AND Euro are fantastic. It’s fine where it is now for us. Trending not done yet obviously. 

[CT Valley Dryslot]

Now comes the GEFS.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:19 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Bun this . Obviously anything can happen, but I think you are projecting just a bit. 
 

I’ve seen very little model support in the last few cycles of both op and ensemble models that would produce something like that 

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You really say that to me?