Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What east moves? 

LOL with this.

I am not hallucinating. The GFS/GEFS/CMC are all well east of where they were 24 hours ago. Euro is the obvious western outlier. Hopefully the other models move back to it.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Anyone got an 06z EPS images?

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, dryslot said:

The only model that was east is the GFS, You shook?

Ya he’s shook. Or hungover? 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

 

It’s really hard not to like that look, too bad it’s only Tuesday morning 

[SnoSki14]

That shortwave is everything. If it ejects faster then the stronger, western ensemble plots win. 

If it's too late then GFS/CMC win.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

 

Thank you sir. Looks perfect to me at this lead time.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

That shortwave is everything. If it ejects faster then the stronger, western ensemble plots win. 

If it's too late then GFS/CMC win.

Delayed is denied.

[PhineasC]

Just now, dryslot said:

The only model that was east is the GFS, You shook?

I have lost track of what models you even look at these days. LOL 

The CMC went way east from 12z to 00z.

I don't care about the ICON and JMA and whatever they are doing.

Clearly the hugger track is off the table right now; we are back to a scenario where the low is hundreds of miles away hopefully tossing precip back over us. I think that also puts the monster storm ideas on hold for the moment too.

[512high]

2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Thank you sir. Looks perfect to me at this lead time.

Lol, cancel your golf game at the Meadows?

[JC-CT]

23 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

Big western spread on the 6z NAEFS.

the, uh, what?

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I have lost track of what models you even look at these days. LOL 

The CMC went way east from 12z to 00z.

I don't care about the ICON and JMA and whatever they are doing.

Clearly the hugger track is off the table right now; we are back to a scenario where the low is hundreds of miles away hopefully tossing precip back over us. I think that also puts the monster storm ideas on hold for the moment too.

You just named 3 i could give a fuk about.......lol

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You just named 3 i could give a fuk about.......lol

Yeah, I can toss all models but the Euro too and then this event looks great.  

[JC-CT]

Just now, dryslot said:

You just named 3 i could give a fuk about.......lol

you've really lost your way. luckily, the navgem is here to guide you back.

[WeatherX]

5 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

the, uh, what?

North American Ensemble Forecast System. Combo of GEFS/GEPS. Just think NORAD but for weather

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

Happy 2022 guys.

Why do I get the feeling I won't be able to get a haircut on Saturday?

My client just said the same thing lol

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

you've really lost your way. luckily, the navgem is here to guide you back.

Have not loss anything, But wait until tomorrow if this goes south/ots you will see what a loss way looks like............

[JC-CT]

kinda stinks for my kids, they are supposed to have a basketball game saturday afternoon. they had 2 weeks with no games because of how christmas/new years fell, then one game the first week back, and then the last 2 were cancelled due to covid. just a rough season.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM would prob be more than a light event....it is more amped than the 06z GFS was at 90h.

Agreed ..that is extrapolating more Euro-esque imho

[WinterWolf]

10 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I have lost track of what models you even look at these days. LOL 

The CMC went way east from 12z to 00z.

I don't care about the ICON and JMA and whatever they are doing.

Clearly the hugger track is off the table right now; we are back to a scenario where the low is hundreds of miles away hopefully tossing precip back over us. I think that also puts the monster storm ideas on hold for the moment too.

Again…you’re only speaking for your area. 

[Patfan1987]

Are all the players in this over land and getting sampled?

[Baroclinic Zone]

23 minutes ago, snowdazed said:

Happy 2022 guys.

Why do I get the feeling I won't be able to get a haircut on Saturday?

Scheduled to meet a client in Hyannis Saturday AM.  Sort of feel the same way.

[jbenedet]

The western Ridge keeps trending further west with time on guidance at around hr 72. An axis over western Washington state without any blocking in eastern Canada is typically a recipe for a cutter or very tucked in track. If the northern stream and southern stream cleanly phase early—around hr 72, this comes much further west than current guidance consensus—there’s plenty of “room” in terms of wave spacing. 
 

 

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Again…you’re only speaking for your area. 

All about the BY.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s tough to do, but I’m trying to wait until tomorrow aftn to really nail it down. Until then we track and watch.

The best approach! 

[ROOSTA]

Repeat after me- "PHASING AND TIMING"
All together now, all together now.

Clown maps are fun but at this range useless except maybe for the jack fetish amongst us and then post emotional attachment. Three days out they become somewhat useful i.e. HRRR, RGEM, and yes, the NAM.  Signature for a CF is becoming clearer, but hey it's only a model output. Use the tools given.  

[hooralph]

Are we still huffing paint and extrapolating the 84 hour NAM?

[butterfish55]

Scheduled to meet a client in Hyannis Saturday AM.  Sort of feel the same way.

Should be fine. It's just going to be raining between your house and Hyannis on Saturday

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

All about the BY.

Yea, I'm not sure that needs to be qualified everytime someone posts...we all understand that there isn't a weather weenie brothel where we all cohabitate, so perspectives are different.

[MaineJayhawk]

Just now, hooralph said:

Are we still huffing paint and extrapolating the 84 hour NAM?

Peeps be hungry for data, even if it's shitty data

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My client just said the same thing lol

Sy Sperling ?