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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/25/2022 at 2:00 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

I know you don't take my comments personal.  We do joke around a lot and share a passion for tracking, you moreso that I, which shows.  I'm still waiting another full day to take a big hit seriously.

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No way, dude. I get it. All in good fun..

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t think most of us are implying that it’s nbd. Clearly we are here because we love it and we chase the big one because how special it is. Trust…if this goes Jan15 out here you bet your fanny I’m gonna go DIT drunken rage on something or someone around the house. 

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Lmao.  
 

Ya Jan 15 was ok here…but not to special at all. I too don’t want that to happen again. Hoping for a better outcome than 1/15.  

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Spanks45

Spanks45

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 1:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t think most of us are implying that it’s nbd. Clearly we are here because we love it and we chase the big one because how special it is. Trust…if this goes Jan15 out here you bet your fanny I’m gonna go DIT drunken rage on something or someone around the house. 

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Ha...might need to double lock my doors...lol

I still think we need to wait until at least tomorrow at 12z probably 0z, unless of course there is a consensus by 0z tonight. Tracking would ve boring if the models were right, all the time days in advance. It's like watching a sporting event, it would be boring if you knew who was going to win before the game began....

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:58 AM, It's Always Sunny said:

Still lots of asymmetric spread but for snow weenies good to see it on the W/NW side. Obviously too far west isn't good but any sign that keeps this thing closer to the coast rather than OTS is a win for the time being.

gefs-mean-sprd_namer_114_mslp.gif

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That's what I'm noticing most over night about modeling ...

For the general reader hot take ... First, wrt the operational versions: yeah, they're ranging between frustrating to glory-ahs. I suspect more of that behavior is normal for D5.5 than it seems the expectation knows.  Yet, large systems tend to signify earlier in guidance - it is almost as though we are getting a handicapped version of this latter phenomenon.  Just as conjecture, it seems as though these souped up party versions are "too much" so, tuned to pick up aspects, many of which are unnecessary and fractal the processing... Supposition, but as such they blow out bad continuity. 

Anyway, so what I noticed over night is that regardless of whether a given ens mean went east en masse, or west, however much, the spreads are always smearing like that above. 

I also have a hypothesis about that 'en masse movement' thing. When it does that, that strikes me more as less having to do with specific member perturbation, and more to do with data going into grid population - because all members are ( obviously you/we know this...) not propagating this crap from a initial vacuum of information.  They all get the same milk; they're all going to spit it out if started to sour - so to speak. 

I tried to spend popsicle headache time early this morning ...tracing the S/W material back in time among the Euro, GFS and GGEM... They are all puking a crucial mechanical pieces out of that morass train-wreck sub-synoptic vorticities aggregating what looks like bursting open SPV over the NE Pacific ... Huge gambles on that stuff...beginning 24 to 36 hour from last night's 00z initialization (so that's tonight onward).  

Many have expressed this as a 'possible' Wednesday for better consensus.  There's two intervals for consensus: 00z on the 24th for me began the consensus for getting the f'er to be real ( kind of an important first step, huh - LOL)...  maybe we can start to have more confidence in which regions, MA to Maine, get what impacts the extents. 

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CT Valley Dryslot

CT Valley Dryslot

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 2:07 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I also have a hypothesis about that 'en masse movement' thing. When it does that, that strikes me more as less having to do with specific member perturbation, and more to do with data going into grid population - because all members are ( obviously you/we know this...) not propagating this crap from a initial vacuum of information.  They all get the same milk; they're all going to spit it out if started to sour - so to speak. 

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Especially since the shortwave is ejecting from eskimo country, basically a no-mans land for dropsondes.

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  On 1/25/2022 at 2:02 PM, WinterWolf said:

Lmao.  
 

Ya Jan 15 was ok here…but not to special at all. I too don’t want that to happen again. Hoping for a better outcome than 1/15.  

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Jan 15 is for you what Boxing day is to me. I have no issue with NEMO, and CT still jackpotted.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 2:05 PM, Spanks45 said:

Ha...might need to double lock my doors...lol

I still think we need to wait until at least tomorrow at 12z probably 0z, unless of course there is a consensus by 0z tonight. Tracking would ve boring if the models were right, all the time days in advance. It's like watching a sporting event, it would be boring if you knew who was going to win before the game began....

 

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It is like that, good analogy. 
 

Yea, another 48hrs of runs should give us a better picture but it doubt it can go any further west than 0z euro which everyone notes will most likely be too amped. I’m leaning towards a graze for us but it’s not like we are 48hr out…an eternity to go still. For now, make sure your locks are in good order and bring up the padded walls from your basement storage. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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  On 1/25/2022 at 2:06 PM, CT Valley Dryslot said:

NAM can't even give a consistent 24hr forecast.

It moved the kicker vort 150mi east into NM at hour 27 compared to 6z!

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The differences in short-term between the NAM/GFS have been insane...and not just here but throughout the country. Finally there seems to be some agreement on that but even yesterday morning the NAM/GFS were worlds apart on that system. It's been that way with just about every weather system this winter across the country. 

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