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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:13 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if the Euro comes in more  stable … cyclone within comparative marginal consistency for positions and pressure depths and so forth. 

This is the stage of the game where the Euro’s 4-D variable normalization system may come in handy because that’s what it’s designed to do it’s designed to stop irrelevant perturbation from causing increased error out in time. These other guidance seem to be suffering from giga motions

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wow, good call for a change heh

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:41 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

We kid.      

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The reality is that if I get a foot here, I have 22.5" headed into February....that still blows. No one on here except Bob enjoys large snow fall deficits for several years running. I understand I am an easy target because I am so vocal about it, but many others here feel the same way, dude.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reality is that if I get a foot here, I have 22.5" headed into February....that still blows. No one on here except Bob enjoys large snow fall deficits for several years running. I understand I am an easy target because I am so vocal about it, but many others here feel the same way, dude.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not wrong....I understand that you couldn't care less, and I believe you, but I think that you are the minority on this site.

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As I said, I’d prefer that over a Jan15 outside looking in result. Mar17 was like that here. We got a foot then snizzled our way to 14” as the deform goodies were NW of here but at least all day it felt like a storm was occurring. 
 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:49 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I remember getting 10" of sand in Feb 2006 when we were forecasted for 18"+  and feeling like it was a huge disappointment. I definitely like to be a part of the big totals, otherwise its just ok. 

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I remember waiting for that huge band out west to get here, and it never came...that was back before I understood deformation zones, etc...I was so jealous of W NE and NYC. Nice event, though....I had 16". 

I was in my 30s before I understood what so many high school kids on this site know now...mind blowing what the internet has done.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:49 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I remember getting 10" of sand in Feb 2006 when we were forecasted for 18"+  and feeling like it was a huge disappointment. I definitely like to be a part of the big totals, otherwise its just ok. 

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I would submit that, especially in that kind of scenario, there's something to be said for totals vs. expectations AND for the dendrites themselves. Sand/diamond dust is rarely satisfying unless you get absolutely buried. 2 to 4 inches of parachutes dancing down through naught a hint of a breeze and I'm seated at the window looking like Paul Reubens enjoying a matinee.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

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I'm still surprised that the 6z GEFS look so ugly. Figured we'd see at least a bit of improvement overnight.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

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Don't worry, apparently no one except me minds...its just snow.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 1:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

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Maybe the euro/eps takes the belt back. 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 1:54 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Clusters on the 06z EPS weren't too different from 00z...the furthest west members got erased, so that's prob why the mean ticked a shade east but the overall clusters really didn't change.

Funny how this is playing out very similarly to Jan 2015....Euro and its ensembles are the furthest west while other guidance is further east. Before the central/western CT peeps get triggered...it doesn't mean it's going to play out just like that storm did.

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I would give up the 2ft totals now if I could lock in 10.5 here at this point in time.

Still very concerned about a complete miss/scraper.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:55 PM, CT Rain said:

I'm still surprised that the 6z GEFS look so ugly. Figured we'd see at least a bit of improvement overnight.

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Yeah I was expecting it better too. My guess is the EPS is too amped, but it is closer to reality than the GEFS. Maybe the old 70/30 rule will restore sanity to the wx forecasting world. But knowing this year...prob not. :lol:

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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  On 1/25/2022 at 1:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Don't worry, apparently no one except me minds...its just snow.

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I don’t think most of us are implying that it’s nbd. Clearly we are here because we love it and we chase the big one because how special it is. Trust…if this goes Jan15 out here you bet your fanny I’m gonna go DIT drunken rage on something or someone around the house. 

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 1:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reality is that if I get a foot here, I have 22.5" headed into February....that still blows. No one on here except Bob enjoys large snow fall deficits for several years running. I understand I am an easy target because I am so vocal about it, but many others here feel the same way, dude.

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Yeah... we (most of us) have a long way to go to get out of obscene ratter territory.

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