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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:48 AM, ORH_wxman said:

The storm is going to be nearby…we know that much. Really the only major variable right now is still how much southern stream gets incorporated. It’s the difference between maybe a scraper and a cape track roughly. That’s where the realistic goalposts are imho. 
 

If we want to get super weenie-ish about 2 standard devs you could prob extend the goalposts a little further to a whiff and maybe something tucked near BOS but that’s getting fairly low probability. 

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Bruce Willis flags for a hugger have been burned. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:50 AM, George001 said:

That’s a great sign when even the “bad” runs are still giving us in eastern mass a foot. 

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The CMC waffling 800mi or whatever just validated my earlier postulation that it was a west goal post....now this is the eastern post. We are honing in fast. I don't think things go east of that GEM run.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:41 AM, dryslot said:

I really don't see anything wrong with where things are right now.

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I was hoping for a correction from the east trend, seems like mostly we just held from 12z/18z. This thing missing OTS has always been the concern here. I get that 90% of the forum lives on cul de sacs within 50 miles of the ocean.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:51 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Bruce Willis flags for a hugger have been burned. 

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Yeah today the trends were pretty decidedly against a 100% southern stream phase. Gotta update the priors. 
 

The question is now how much of whatever less than the 100% do we incorporate into the system. I guess something else weird could change in the northern stream but it seems to be pretty steady on most guidance. 

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JoeSnowBOS

JoeSnowBOS

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:55 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah today the trends were pretty decidedly against a 100% southern stream phase. Gotta update the priors. 
 

The question is now how much of whatever less than the 100% do we incorporate into the system. I guess something else weird could change in the northern stream but it seems to be pretty steady on most guidance. 

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Don’t matter if it’s not 100%, even without that the QPF is impressive and translates to quite a bit of snow.   

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:55 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Yeah, but exactly where we want it at this stage.  She ain't cutting to Albany but West moves are still very much on the table. 

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West and east moves can be had, for sure. It’s all about the southern vort for us. Get that to kick east earlier and curl up and in, and we’re slapping nathans with each other. 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:55 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah today the trends were pretty decidedly against a 100% southern stream phase. Gotta update the priors. 
 

The question is now how much of whatever less than the 100% do we incorporate into the system. I guess something else weird could change in the northern stream but it seems to be pretty steady on most guidance. 

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Oh shit, here comes "still a couple inches for the cape." Kiss of death. Maybe by 06z?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:59 AM, PhineasC said:

Oh shit, here comes "still a couple inches for the cape." Kiss of death. Maybe by 06z?

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Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:59 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

West and east moves can be had, for sure. It’s all about the southern vort for us. Get that to kick east earlier and curl up and in, and we’re slapping nathans with each other. 

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Yup, laying outside, in the chaise lounges, in full gortex, passing the gummies.

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40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 5:03 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.

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I never bought into that with this one.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 5:03 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.

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Yeah, I get well over a foot even on the GFS. I bit way too hard on the 2 foot solutions from several cycles ago.

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CCHurricane

CCHurricane

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 5:03 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Lol no....I'm just much less afraid of a storm ripping up through ORH than before today. A hugger near the Cape is still a very real distinct possibility, and you don't even need it that far northwest where you are since this is hooking left into the Gulf of Maine....a lot of these solutions that track outside the Cape still hit NH pretty hard like the 00z Ukie.

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Even the GFS has most of NH with a solid 6-12, and 12-18 likely with elevation in the Whites and/or towards the coast. Not a bad hit for pretty much everyone NH points south and to the east.

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 5:06 AM, dryslot said:

Phinn shook, He saw the GGEM and is double fisting stouts.

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I am shook as hell. I have not yet shed the MA attitude that every storm wants to screw me. I hate these storms that just meander out to sea for the fishes and lobsters. I hate them. @dendrite warned me before I bought this house but I didn't listen.

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