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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:13 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Even some of these sloppier half-phased solutions are crazy strong. Just shows the higher end potential on this…esp if it gets captured by a closing off H5 and temporarily slows down. 

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This reminds me of 3-5-2001 and 1-27-15 both.

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:14 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:21 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Pretty big jump east, good for ESNE though. Phineass just got nervous.

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How does it feel?

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Setting goal posts....I would give it another 24 hours, but tucky tucky may just be outta lucky lucky

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40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Right but when they miss they often  produce something ...usually a warning event . This has hit or full miss and the track seems well easy to whiff So I’d say much lower odds than usual 

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I would be shocked if our area doesn't see a warning event.

I don't agree with you.

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:31 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Setting goal posts....I would give it another 24 hours, but tucky tucky may just be outta lucky lucky

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We knew it would be. Mostly northern stream dominate systems favor the east. The west needs more southern juice but the subtle trends have been to drag it and not curl it inwards early enough. 

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40/70 Benchmark

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Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:34 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We knew it would be. Mostly northern stream dominate systems favor the east. The west needs more southern juice but the subtle trends have been to drag it and not curl it inwards early enough. 

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The key is to close it off just a hair sooner....I think that would place a deform waaaay west...even more than people would think. This has more S juice than JUNO did IMO.

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George001

George001

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key is to close it off just a hair sooner....I think that would place a deform waaaay west...even more than people would think. This has more S juice than JUNO did IMO.

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yeah there is a lot of southern energy. The more east solutions seem to be holding the energy back. Hopefully it trends towards a quicker ejection in future runs and no energy is left behind. 

 

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:35 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key is to close it off just a hair sooner....I think that would place a deform waaaay west...even more than people would think. This has more S juice than JUNO did IMO.

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It does but the small hints show a potential to be sloppy with the s stream. We’ll see what euro/eps do but it probably shifts east a tick imwo. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:40 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It does but the small hints show a potential to be sloppy with the s stream. We’ll see what euro/eps do but it probably shifts east a tick imwo. 

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I think it will tick east at 12th hour...you know my thoughts on that, they usually do....but not necessarily from THIS solution, if you get my drift...

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STILL N OF PIKE

STILL N OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:33 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would be shocked if our area doesn't see a warning event.

I don't agree with you.

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Fair enough , and to be honest I hadn’t looked at it that closely at all, other than just looking at angle of approach and saying Doesn’t seem like much wiggle room . I’m hoping it hits 

surprised I have a 1/2 inch new now , looks nice 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
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  On 1/25/2022 at 4:43 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Fair enough , and to be honest I can be easily swayed Bc I hadn’t looked at it that closely at all, other than just looking at angle of approach and saying Doesn’t seem like much wiggle room 

surprised I have a 1/2 inch new now , looks nice 

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Its is kind of thread the needle, you are right....but unless things really go to shit fast, I think we are honing in soon.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:45 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its is kind of thread the needle, you are right....but unless things really go to shit fast, I think we are honing in soon.

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The storm is going to be nearby…we know that much. Really the only major variable right now is still how much southern stream gets incorporated. It’s the difference between maybe a scraper and a cape track roughly. That’s where the realistic goalposts are imho. 
 

If we want to get super weenie-ish about 2 standard devs you could prob extend the goalposts a little further to a whiff and maybe something tucked near BOS but that’s getting fairly low probability. 

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wxsniss

wxsniss

Posted
Posted
  On 1/25/2022 at 4:45 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its is kind of thread the needle, you are right....but unless things really go to shit fast, I think we are honing in soon.

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Tells the scale of this event: thread the needle is for historic, and we’ve seen exactly that depicted verbatim on reliable models… but lots of buffer for widespread warning+

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