Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Spanks45]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:09 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Still meh except east zones but I’d rather have it there now.

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Still 100ish hours out, south and east is where you would want the GFS right now....at least it stopped going east

[MuddyWx]

It goes boom in the GoM hr 120. 964

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:08 AM, dryslot said:

Still has some work, But at least it didn't leave that s/w behind this run.

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yes, exactly the trend that we wanted to see stiff armed.

[dryslot]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:09 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Still meh except east zones but I’d rather have it there now.

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Its better there right now then where it went at 18z.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think I got deformed that run

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:10 AM, Spanks45 said:

Still 100ish hours out, south and east is where you would want the GFS right now....at least it stopped going east

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It’s not as bad with se bias anymore but I wouldn’t want to be jacked by it at d5 either. 

[ORH_wxman]

Even some of these sloppier half-phased solutions are crazy strong. Just shows the higher end potential on this…esp if it gets captured by a closing off H5 and temporarily slows down. 

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder if the Euro comes in more  stable … cyclone within comparative marginal consistency for positions and pressure depths and so forth. 

This is the stage of the game where the Euro’s 4-D variable normalization system may come in handy because that’s what it’s designed to do it’s designed to stop irrelevant perturbation from causing increased error out in time. These other guidance seem to be suffering from giga motions

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:12 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I got deformed that run

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How does it feel?

[CT Rain]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:13 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Even some of these sloppier half-phased solutions are crazy strong. Just shows the higher end potential on this…esp if it gets captured by a closing off H5 and temporarily slows down. 

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Yeah I think that's the biggest takeaway here... if we can get the phasing right there's some very high end potential.

Hopefully we can figure out the southern stream s/w in the next day or so and can eliminate the risk for a whiff.

[wxsniss]

Phasing happens just a tad later, H5 closes overhead / into gulf of ME, so we just miss the more epic solutions. It's close.

[Typhoon Tip]

Basically over the last 24 to 36 hours worth of GFS runs it has been flopping all over the place.

[yoda]

00z CMC did go east by a good amount, but does hit SNE nicely 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:32 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

HECS are usually easy to miss....that's why they are HECS

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Right but when they miss they often  produce something ...usually a warning event . This has hit or full miss and the track seems well easy to whiff So I’d say much lower odds than usual 

[dendrite]

Theoretical sfc low placement based on the dual jet structure checks out. Still so much time to go.

[yoda]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:16 AM, yoda said:

00z CMC did go east by a good amount, but does hit SNE nicely 

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[dryslot]

It phased late and didn't close off until it was over DE Maine, Rather that happen close to ACK or just south of there but we will see in the next 24-36 hrs

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:16 AM, yoda said:

00z CMC did go east by a good amount, but does hit SNE nicely 

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Pretty big jump east, good for ESNE though. Phineass just got nervous.

[George001]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, yoda said:

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Ah shit…. We lost the Canadian! Hopefully the ensembles are farther west.

[PhineasC]

Basically identical to 18z here. Monster solutions seem to be off the table. This is more a 10-12 deal versus a 18-24 deal.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:18 AM, dryslot said:

It phased late and didn't close off until it was over DE Maine, Rather that happen close to ACK or just south of there but we will see in the next 24-36 hrs

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You are getting spooked.

[Ji]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, yoda said:

Stay in your lane

[yoda]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:23 AM, Ji said:

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, yoda said:

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Stay in your lane

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Huh?

[weathafella]

George, we’ve been telling you cmc sucks and navy is worse.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Right but when they miss they often  produce something ...usually a warning event . This has hit or full miss and the track seems well easy to whiff So I’d say much lower odds than usual 

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You've been quiet on this one, but yeah whiff is the real deal, despite the endless stream of posts claiming it's impossible. This thing can still end up in "a few inches for the cape" mode.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:23 AM, Ji said:

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, yoda said:

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Stay in your lane

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Why is he here in this forum? Police your shit. 

[weathafella]

The euro has been questionable of late but this type of system should be in its wheelhouse.   Let’s see if it can hold.   Out to walk on a snowy night...

[dryslot]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:23 AM, PhineasC said:

You are getting spooked.

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You're getting drunk.........lol

[dendrite]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:25 AM, weathafella said:

George, we’ve been telling you cmc sucks and navy is worse.

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Why don’t you tell him about Santa too while you’re at it.

[yoda]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:26 AM, PhineasC said:

Why is here in this forum? Police your shit. 

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I just saw the CMC early and posted it in here for you guys.  Not sure why Ji posted what he did about it