Spanks45 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:09 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still meh except east zones but I’d rather have it there now. Expand Still 100ish hours out, south and east is where you would want the GFS right now....at least it stopped going east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 It goes boom in the GoM hr 120. 964 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:08 AM, dryslot said: Still has some work, But at least it didn't leave that s/w behind this run. Expand yes, exactly the trend that we wanted to see stiff armed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:09 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Still meh except east zones but I’d rather have it there now. Expand Its better there right now then where it went at 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I think I got deformed that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:10 AM, Spanks45 said: Still 100ish hours out, south and east is where you would want the GFS right now....at least it stopped going east Expand It’s not as bad with se bias anymore but I wouldn’t want to be jacked by it at d5 either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Even some of these sloppier half-phased solutions are crazy strong. Just shows the higher end potential on this…esp if it gets captured by a closing off H5 and temporarily slows down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 I wonder if the Euro comes in more stable … cyclone within comparative marginal consistency for positions and pressure depths and so forth. This is the stage of the game where the Euro’s 4-D variable normalization system may come in handy because that’s what it’s designed to do it’s designed to stop irrelevant perturbation from causing increased error out in time. These other guidance seem to be suffering from giga motions 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:12 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I got deformed that run Expand How does it feel? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:13 AM, ORH_wxman said: Even some of these sloppier half-phased solutions are crazy strong. Just shows the higher end potential on this…esp if it gets captured by a closing off H5 and temporarily slows down. Expand Yeah I think that's the biggest takeaway here... if we can get the phasing right there's some very high end potential. Hopefully we can figure out the southern stream s/w in the next day or so and can eliminate the risk for a whiff. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Phasing happens just a tad later, H5 closes overhead / into gulf of ME, so we just miss the more epic solutions. It's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Basically over the last 24 to 36 hours worth of GFS runs it has been flopping all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 00z CMC did go east by a good amount, but does hit SNE nicely 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 3:32 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: HECS are usually easy to miss....that's why they are HECS Expand Right but when they miss they often produce something ...usually a warning event . This has hit or full miss and the track seems well easy to whiff So I’d say much lower odds than usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Theoretical sfc low placement based on the dual jet structure checks out. Still so much time to go. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:16 AM, yoda said: 00z CMC did go east by a good amount, but does hit SNE nicely Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 It phased late and didn't close off until it was over DE Maine, Rather that happen close to ACK or just south of there but we will see in the next 24-36 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:16 AM, yoda said: 00z CMC did go east by a good amount, but does hit SNE nicely Expand Pretty big jump east, good for ESNE though. Phineass just got nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, yoda said: Expand Ah shit…. We lost the Canadian! Hopefully the ensembles are farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Basically identical to 18z here. Monster solutions seem to be off the table. This is more a 10-12 deal versus a 18-24 deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:18 AM, dryslot said: It phased late and didn't close off until it was over DE Maine, Rather that happen close to ACK or just south of there but we will see in the next 24-36 hrs Expand You are getting spooked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, yoda said: Stay in your lane 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:23 AM, Ji said: On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, yoda said: Expand Stay in your lane Expand Huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 George, we’ve been telling you cmc sucks and navy is worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Right but when they miss they often produce something ...usually a warning event . This has hit or full miss and the track seems well easy to whiff So I’d say much lower odds than usual Expand You've been quiet on this one, but yeah whiff is the real deal, despite the endless stream of posts claiming it's impossible. This thing can still end up in "a few inches for the cape" mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:23 AM, Ji said: On 1/25/2022 at 4:17 AM, yoda said: Expand Stay in your lane Expand Why is he here in this forum? Police your shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The euro has been questionable of late but this type of system should be in its wheelhouse. Let’s see if it can hold. Out to walk on a snowy night... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:23 AM, PhineasC said: You are getting spooked. Expand You're getting drunk.........lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:25 AM, weathafella said: George, we’ve been telling you cmc sucks and navy is worse. Expand Why don’t you tell him about Santa too while you’re at it. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/25/2022 at 4:26 AM, PhineasC said: Why is here in this forum? Police your shit. Expand I just saw the CMC early and posted it in here for you guys. Not sure why Ji posted what he did about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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