Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:54 AM, dendrite said:

Think of how advanced the pyramids were.

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They were definitely some type of advanced electromagnetic field generator.  

[dendrite]

That southern stream is def a little east of the 18z run and 00z nam. Hopefully it plays nice with the northern stream.

[brooklynwx99]

much improved

[dryslot]

Looks like its going too.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:52 AM, dendrite said:

I think it's the only model with a triangular grid.

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What happened to the FIM, a model based off GFS initialization using GFS physics but with a hexagonal grid?  I weenied to that 5 or 8 years ago during hurricane seasons.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:30 AM, mahk_webstah said:

We don’t have straight up easy to see coming storms anymore 

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It’s five days away … five. Expectations may be too high. 

We’re also saturated with too many model choices half of which are unstable performers. 

I don’t think I ever remember consistently weather charts being correct at day five 1980s 1990s 2000s or the last decade. 

confidence is high for a significant storm - If we stop at that, then models are going to nail it; they and the signals that we use all that were very well laid out. It’s gonna take time for this either come together perfectly or come together less than perfectly or whatever it does

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:58 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

What happened to the FIM, a model based off GFS initialization using GFS physics but with a hexagonal grid?  I weenied to that 5 or 8 years ago during hurricane seasons.

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It probably got put in the same storage warehouse as the CRAS model. 

[wxsniss]

0z GFS: Southern shortwave at 12z Friday is about 150 miles further east... should be more conducive to earlier phase

[dendrite]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:00 AM, ORH_wxman said:

It probably got put in the same storage warehouse as the CRAS model. 

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They're all on the island of misfit models with the MM5, RSM, DGEX, ETA, and NGM.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:59 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

It’s five days away … five. Expectations may be too high. 

We’re also saturated with too many model choices half of which are unstable performers. 

I don’t think I ever remember consistently weather charts being corrected day five 1980s 1990s 2000s in the last decade. 

confidence is high for a significant storm - If we stop at that, then models are going to nail it; they and the signals that we use all that were very well laid out. It’s gonna take time for this either come together perfectly or come together less than perfectly or whatever it does

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Yea. Like whatever happens, models sniffed the potential days and days ago. I know weenies want BY results but still. Big picture, so far so good.

[BuildingScienceWx]

Any thoughts on the heights decreasing over us run over run? How much of an impact does that have and wouldn't we want that trending the other way?

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:02 AM, dendrite said:

They're all on the island of misfit models with the MM5, RSM, DGEX, ETA, and NGM.

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They are all in an unmarked box somewhere next to the Ark. 

[The 4 Seasons]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:02 AM, dendrite said:

They're all on the island of misfit models with the MM5, RSM, DGEX, ETA, and NGM.

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Don't forget the RUC, love the RUC, George loves the RUC

[George001]

I’m not buying the east models at all (nam, gfs, icon). In my opinion there are several factors that favor the western side of the envelope.

1. The ridge axis is over Idaho, which i believe is even more west than the Jan 2015 blizzard. 

2. The ensembles are west of the op

3. This is the most important one, the Navy, notorious for having a progressive bias is west of all the models I mentioned above. The rule of thumb I use with the Navy is I straight up ignore all guidance east of it. If the progressive biased Navy thinks this is coming up the coast, in my opinion it probably is. In fact, a blend of the big 3 is west enough that even my area could see precip type issues. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:00 AM, ORH_wxman said:

It probably got put in the same storage warehouse as the CRAS model. 

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That’s funny because crass in fact means crudely developed and unsophisticated LOL

[PhineasC]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:58 AM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

What happened to the FIM, a model based off GFS initialization using GFS physics but with a hexagonal grid?  I weenied to that 5 or 8 years ago during hurricane seasons.

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It's being researched by men...

TOP men...

[dryslot]

Coming west of 18z this run

[RDRY]

Not as good as 6z with the southern energy, but certainly better than 12z. Actually, at 96 hours, this looks almost exactly the same as yesterday's 0z.

[PhineasC]

  On 1/25/2022 at 3:54 AM, dendrite said:

Think of how advanced the pyramids were.

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[dendrite]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:03 AM, The 4 Seasons said:

Don't forget the RUC, love the RUC, George loves the RUC

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"I only go out to 18 hours"

"I only get inputed with satellite data"

"I'm a mesoscale model with poor resolution"

"We're alll misfits"

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:05 AM, dryslot said:

Coming west of 18z this run

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Better than 18z but still not as sharp a trough as 12z

[weathafella]

Slower too.

[Spanks45]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:06 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Better than 18z but still not as sharp a trough as 12z

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It's the GFS with coastals, probably starts coming back to the real solution by Thursday....

[dryslot]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:06 AM, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Better than 18z but still not as sharp a trough as 12z

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Still has some work, But at least it didn't leave that s/w behind this run.

[tiger_deF]

Compared to the EPS members this would be a middle of the pack-lower end solution, but I'd take the GFS verbatim. Hopefully it holds this look, if the southern stream is just a little more cooperative then boom 

[Boston Bulldog]

Decently deeper and a touch west at 108h, lets see if a more progressive southern wave solution holds for the rest of the 0z suite

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Still meh except east zones but I’d rather have it there now.

[wxsniss]

Slower, further west

Huge hit eSNE 18z-21z Sat

[weathafella]

Still a big hit for Boston area with generally 1.5 qpf

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/25/2022 at 4:04 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

That’s funny because crass in fact means crudely developed and unsophisticated LOL

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Cras is a Latin word which means tomorrow.  Maybe that’s why they called it the cras…meaning it models the future/or tomorrow lol.