Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[Damage In Tolland]

Weather .us? Lol

[tiger_deF]

Just a general meteorological question; I understand that closed low pressure systems tend to form from shortwaves that elongate troughs to the point of separating them from a synoptic ridge/trough pattern and "closes" them off, but how come these low pressure systems tend to intensify so much more, and appear more symmetrical, over water?

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weather .us? Lol

Actually a cool site

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Meteocentre has the 18z gem but it only goes out to 84h on the 18z run. 

They should refrain from running inferior models more times a day. Work on improving it first. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Actually a cool site

Thought he made it up .

[dryslot]

Goes out to hr 120 here, Looked like it was pretty far west

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

[Damage In Tolland]

The problem with the GFS being improved is it leads to more confusion. At least before the upgrade you could bet your house, your salary, ounces of weed if you smoke pot, that it was wrong and too Far East. Now , because they upgraded it and it’s been decent , you can only bet apartments , 1/4 salaries , dime bags . You’ll still likely win, but it’s not quite as confident 

[PhineasC]

22 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

18z cmc?

A very special run for special people by invitation only.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Goes out to hr 120 here, Looked like it was pretty far west

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Too bad the worse models crush us here. 

[Superstorm93]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Goes out to hr 120 here, Looked like it was pretty far west

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

That's the 12z GGEM

18z only runs to 84 hours since it's the RGEM

[hooralph]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

JJ Foleys FTW. 
 

My favorite is when they politely told all of us “gentlemen, we think you may be more comfortable in our back room”…they were so diplomatic kicking us out of the main bar. 

We can do a Zoom happy hour from our toaster baths. Just plug the laptops in first.

[PhineasC]

This is when I wish they still ran the CRAS. That sucker was always amped. It would not be going east, that's for sure.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Superstorm93 said:

That's the 12z GGEM

18z only runs to 84 hours since it's the RGEM

Odd, That if you choose 18z and loop it it goes to hr 120

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Pit2 Pummeler.  I'll shovel the 6-9 in Westoborugh Sunday night if that depiction were to hold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

If i had to go out on a limb, I would say it won't happen this way.

 

Yea, I'm not that worried.

[Superstorm93]

Just now, dryslot said:

Odd, That if you choose 18z and loop it it goes to hr 120

 

True, but the origin date remains 12z. 

[dryslot]

Just now, Superstorm93 said:

 

True, but the origin date remains 12z. 

ok

[George001]

The gfs going from one of the most amped to out to sea in one run shows how garbage that mode is. Navy is farther west and it has a notable se bias, so anything east of it can be tossed.

[SouthCoastMA]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Odd, That if you choose 18z and loop it it goes to hr 120

it starts as 18z then flips to the 12z run on the fly after a certain # of hours. it's pieced together like Frankensteins monster on that site

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

The gfs going from one of the most amped to out to sea in one run shows how garbage that mode is. Navy is farther west and it has a notable se bias, so anything east of it can be tossed.

The euro did the same last night. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

The euro did the same last night. 

Still worried about taint?

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, George001 said:

The gfs going from one of the most amped to out to sea in one run shows how garbage that mode is. Navy is farther west and it has a notable se bias, so anything east of it can be tossed.

FYP

[CT Valley Dryslot]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Goes out to hr 120 here, Looked like it was pretty far west

https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Still 12z.

The 18z is for the RGEM, which runs to hour 84.

Frames after that are still 12z.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

it starts as 18z then flips to the 12z run on the fly after a certain # of hours. it's pieced together like Frankensteins monster on that site

Odd to say the least.

[JC-CT]

44 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol Hooralph is an original. Boston guy now in NYC. We had some good times at GTGs

he was joking, i was joking?

[JC-CT]

18z Euro says the 18z GFS has been hitting the bottle again

HAPPY HOUR RUNS

[JC-CT]

what's the distance from Phoenix AZ to Roswell NM?

[MJO812]

Euro and gfs are night and day at h5

Euro isn't holding back anything 

[Cary]

1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

what's the distance from Phoenix AZ to Roswell NM?

436 miles

[MJO812]

Euro looks better than 12z