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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

One of these two things are off

TT_TT_PN_120_0000.gif

Those might be more mutually exclusive charts than at first guess.   The majority of that snow might have fallen/cumulative before that point of time, and then the warm layer comes in briefly but erodes away...etc...  That low is not going W of Boston imho, and that's the ball game on the warm layer west of the location probably on the next frame or the one right after.   In other words, damage done with a later of zr/pl in there.  

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RUNNAWAYICEBERG

RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Tip   Scoots and Will .  Three trusted Mets whom we we all care about deeply and do not let us down ever.. said goalpost narrow and whiff or brush highly unlikely. Stay the course and toss the off hour Gfs suite 

Yea. Will and Scoots are worried about huggers moreso while Tip has been disrobed for a few days now telling us it’s coming. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah there's no question ..this GFS run slipped the phase with the southern stream; immediately it translates to later bloom - removing also the MA from contention while doing so, and rending most impact to eastern NE at less so, too.

Noticing off the bat a signficant structural change between Hawaii and California/west coast, causing the ridge to re-position W and less amp.. This is allowing the southern aspect to cut back SW farther than previous runs ...that sets the stage for abandoning it when the N stream then amplifies.

It's a significant large continuity break so I'd take it with a caution pending further support. ... that wold be my suggestion for now. 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah there's no question ..this GFS run slipped the phase with the southern stream; immediately it translates to later bloom - removing also the MA from contention while doing so, and rending most impact to eastern NE at less so, too.

Noticing off the bat a signficant structural change between Hawaii and California/west coast, causing the ridge to re-position W and less amp.. This is allowing the southern aspect to cut back SW farther than previous runs ...that sets the stage for abandoning it when the N stream then amplifies.

It's a significant large continuity break so I'd take it with a caution pending further support. ... that wold be my suggestion for now. 

You created this thread so it’s your job to save us. 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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40 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

GEFS is always going to follow the OP at this time frame. If the OP came west again at 0z, so would the GEFS. So the fact that the GEFS went east isn't really hugely meaningful to me. They are more useful further out in time than this.

 

40 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

big jump west now big jump east.  this winter is fascinating.

We windshield wipe. Been here done this.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol Hooralph is an original. Boston guy now in NYC. We had some good times at GTGs

JJ Foleys FTW. 
 

My favorite is when they politely told all of us “gentlemen, we think you may be more comfortable in our back room”…they were so diplomatic kicking us out of the main bar. :lol:

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HalloweenGale

HalloweenGale

Posted
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2 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said:
Saturday
Snow likely before 10am, then rain and snow likely between 10am and 11am, then snow likely after 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
so it begins  lol

As of now, the mid cape is torch city

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

JJ Foleys FTW. 
 

My favorite is when they politely told all of us “gentlemen, we think you may be more comfortable in our back room”…they were so diplomatic kicking us out of the main bar. :lol:

Lol. Barry Burbank started it!! Other time at PVD when Kev and Eck were bouncing bottle tops off the bartender and we got tossed. Good times 

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah there's no question ..this GFS run slipped the phase with the southern stream; immediately it translates to later bloom - removing also the MA from contention while doing so, and rending most impact to eastern NE at less so, too.

Noticing off the bat a signficant structural change between Hawaii and California/west coast, causing the ridge to re-position W and less amp.. This is allowing the southern aspect to cut back SW farther than previous runs ...that sets the stage for abandoning it when the N stream then amplifies.

It's a significant large continuity break so I'd take it with a caution pending further support. ... that wold be my suggestion for now. 

18z cmc looks like it was going to split off southern stream as well. Energy is much farther west vs 12z at 84 hours 

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

We windshield wipe. Been here done this.

As predictable as the rising and setting of the sun. I won’t be all in until Wednesday, and as long as this isn’t a whiff I’ll be ready to go if a high end chase opportunity presents itself. Good times ahead (I hope).

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