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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It was terrible. Woke up to sunny skies and the wind blowing 6-8" of sand while just to our east, they were getting rammed. 

I can’t remember his username but we had a poster from Connecticut, who I believe was a red tagger,  who had a Hall of Fame meltdown after that storm.

I believe he even made a YouTube video about it. He may have given up weather after that one.

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Heisy

Heisy

Posted
Posted
Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

If this was 2-3 years ago, I might be getting my hopes up that the other models would soon be trending towards the EURO. But we know how this story will end.

This is a lot different than previous events this year. There is actually support across the spectrum this time. 

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HinghamBoss

HinghamBoss

Posted
Posted

Has there every been any really good regression analysis done on model lead time "locking" in on the big storms?   I recognize one of the intangibles has been improved forecasting technology (I'm eyerolling as I write it too...but the trend vs 20-30 years ago is improved).

 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, dryslot said:

That was where i was going to get serious with this, But model consensus is quite high even now other then some nuances.

Today has really started narrowing the clusters on the ensembles and OP runs for 5 day lead time....confidence is definitely higher than normal at D5 for this one. Still have to be cautious obviously, but given the model guidance and also the larger scale pattern that is driving this evolution, we can afford to be a little more confident. It's not like some shortwave coming in slightly stronger or weaker is going to drastically change the solution....because its the larger scale features that are driving this the most.

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DavisStraight

DavisStraight

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Must be the season of (witch) "Noreasters"  
Don't look now but, Pattern locked, reloads and there she blows.
Always thought this winter would deliver in a short timeframe!
Could be a memorable February.   

Despite all the kvetching we have enough time to pull off a good winter.

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