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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I looked at the 925 mb thermal layout and it ranges from -2C along the S.Coast shore to -7 SE VT-S NH on average, at 120 hours.  With a 1028 to 1032 mb high pearled out N of Maine, and lowering sfc pressure approaching the S.Coast, that is plenty of BL resistance implied by those factors. 

I'm sure other's have different data sources, and or dissenting opinions, but I don't see that as a limitation ( as of right now of course!) my self.

This storm is not 'making it's own cold' good lord. 

I think we're making shit up as defensive posturing LOL... .hey man, whatever it takes.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 1/24/2022 at 3:26 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

I looked at the 925 mb thermal layout and it ranges from -2C along the S.Coast shore to -7 SE VT-S NH on average, at 120 hours.  With a 1028 to 1032 mb high pearled out N of Maine, and lowering sfc pressure approaching the S.Coast, that is plenty of BL resistance implied by those factors. 

I'm sure other's have different data sources, and or dissenting opinions, but I don't see that as a limitation ( as of right now of course!) my self.

 

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Look at Friday for example. It's in the 30s and fairly mild all things considered. It's not like we have highs in the teens and 20s prior to the storm arrival, with a big fat high north of New England. That's all I mean.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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Posted
  On 1/24/2022 at 3:25 PM, JC-CT said:

this is all true. also why some of these deep ensemble members showing up haven't actually been that great region-wide. But there is something historic about a storm that strong that is cool in its own right.

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For sure. And I get the love for them because of the wind potential but that just ends up screwing snow growth and ratios and essentially if you aren't under one of those bands...you're sucking pixie dust (or something just above that). 

This is where QPF huggers really need to keep a realistic perspective here. This is a situation where mesoscale and very high-resolution models get their pay because they will really do a good job at painting this picture. 

I just remember these type of storms being a pain b/c it is really impossible to portray the type of gradients that develop within forecast snow maps. one town can get like 20'' and a few towns away like 8'' lol. 

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SnoSki14

SnoSki14

Posted
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  On 1/24/2022 at 3:32 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

I'm riding the blitzkrieg model until it surrenders to the allied forces (GFS, UK, EURO). 

Have a feeling this storm is going to make or break some people on this board. Those who haven't learned by now to temper expectations. 

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I mean it's hard to complain when the region has gotten multiple KU storms over the past couple decades

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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  On 1/24/2022 at 3:31 PM, weatherwiz said:

For sure. And I get the love for them because of the wind potential but that just ends up screwing snow growth and ratios and essentially if you aren't under one of those bands...you're sucking pixie dust (or something just above that). 

This is where QPF huggers really need to keep a realistic perspective here. This is a situation where mesoscale and very high-resolution models get their pay because they will really do a good job at painting this picture. 

I just remember these type of storms being a pain b/c it is really impossible to portray the type of gradients that develop within forecast snow maps. one town can get like 20'' and a few towns away like 8'' lol. 

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if the rapid deepening happens up here at our latitude, it should be fine. but yeah, nobody wants a storm that is already occluded before it gets here

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ma blizzard

ma blizzard

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  On 1/24/2022 at 2:53 PM, wxeyeNH said:

I have a couple of questions.  Just went through all the posts to see if someone already asked.

What is the deepest cyclone in mb at the latitude of the Cape/Boston?  Would the Euro  946mb be a record?  Sure would seem like it.

Blizzard of 78 was 984mb (I think) but a stronger high out west.  What has been the steepest pressure gradient over New England for a winter storm?

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2049851229_ScreenShot2022-01-24at10_40_44AM.thumb.png.fa5a184a156f404f5d0f4d81cfb8ad79.png

I believe this is the record low pressure for lower 48 / non-hurricane 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
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  On 1/24/2022 at 3:37 PM, JC-CT said:

if the rapid deepening happens up here at our latitude, it should be fine. but yeah, nobody wants a storm that is already occluded before it gets here

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Bingo...that's exactly what we would want...rapid deepening to occur at our latitude. This would also limit any potential for warmer air streaming into the region in the event of a coastal hugger. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 1/24/2022 at 3:45 PM, radarman said:

I like how the baroclinic zone sets up near the coast out ahead of the system behind the departing HP to the east and the incoming N stream s/w. Bodes well for heavy precip... on top of that associated with the rapid deepening of course.

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Yeah unlike the last storm that tracked through BGM, the sfc front gets pretty well established early on over the coast or just SE of the coast depending on the solution.

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