Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/23/2022 at 9:40 PM, mreaves said:

I’ll tell you what, I’ll take your place in London. I have no idea what you do and am most likely not qualified but my name is Mark and I love London. I think I can fake it enough so you can be here if there is a storm. 

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My Dad says that all the time.  Believe some days, I'd like to switch places!  I'm happy to finally get back to travelling globally.  I own a consulting firm that specialized in inclusive leadership.

[dryslot]

All but one of those lows that are east of the mean are weak too.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/23/2022 at 10:46 PM, Baroclinic Zone said:

Bigly

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Smallz?

[ORH_wxman]

One more image for our NNE peeps

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 1/23/2022 at 10:50 PM, dryslot said:

That's shift west on the 18z GEFS

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Nice cluster just outside BM

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Love tracking the big dawgs, let’s FN GO!!!!

[JC-CT]

Does anyone have panels of the indies

[dryslot]

  On 1/23/2022 at 10:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nice cluster just outside BM

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Looking at the panel that Will just posted looks like they tracked north from there too.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/23/2022 at 10:59 PM, dryslot said:

Looking at the panel that Will just posted looks like they tracked north from there too.

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This is one of those lows that will go north into the gulf of maine if it can track near the BM

[JC-CT]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of those lows that will go north into the gulf of maine if it can track near the BM

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good, so if it tracks over me, dryslot can enjoy his flooding rains

[Hoth]

Impressively deep solutions in the ensembles. Just tickle it west in the coming days 

[dryslot]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:00 PM, ORH_wxman said:

This is one of those lows that will go north into the gulf of maine if it can track near the BM

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As it gets captured we've seen the curl west on these runs, That's why i don't mind seeing where this has been, Its not trying to escape ENE as its gaining latitude, My longitude helps in this instance.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:03 PM, Hoth said:

Impressively deep solutions in the ensembles. Just tickle it west in the coming days 

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Tickle it, just a lil bit. I wanna see you…

[Ginx snewx]

[wxsniss]

Oh Brady how we miss you

Agree with ORH, this has the potential to snap back abruptly with just a touch more/earlier northern stream interaction

[eduggs]

Remember when the GFS op was an extreme outlier with respect to every single GEFS member for run after run in the medium range?... last weekend... How'd that turn out?

I have no confidence in the GEFS signaling the correct outcome or even which way to hedge. If the GFS and Euro don't start looking better at H5 by 0z, that should be a caution flag for sure.

[dryslot]

TB12 doing TB12 things.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/23/2022 at 10:58 PM, JC-CT said:

Does anyone have pictures of my undies

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I don't but I have these

[Johnno]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:20 PM, dryslot said:

TB12 doing TB12 things.

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Goat

[JC-CT]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:21 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I don't but I have these

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thx, what I suspected

[dryslot]

What a game, WOW.

[DavisStraight]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:20 PM, dryslot said:

TB12 doing TB12 things.

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Not enough but what a game, TB's the best ever

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:21 PM, Ginx snewx said:

I don't but I have these

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Solid big boy hits 

[dryslot]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:20 PM, eduggs said:

Remember when the GFS op was an extreme outlier with respect to every single GEFS member for run after run in the medium range?... last weekend... How'd that turn out?

I have no confidence in the GEFS signaling the correct outcome or even which way to hedge. If the GFS and Euro don't start looking better at H5 by 0z, that should be a caution flag for sure.

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They all don't work out that way though in most instances, There is still changes to go at this lead,

[Hoth]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:20 PM, eduggs said:

Remember when the GFS op was an extreme outlier with respect to every single GEFS member for run after run in the medium range?... last weekend... How'd that turn out?

I have no confidence in the GEFS signaling the correct outcome or even which way to hedge. If the GFS and Euro don't start looking better at H5 by 0z, that should be a caution flag for sure.

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Repeat after me: "Past performance is not indicative of future results."

[JC-CT]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:33 PM, Hoth said:

Repeat after me: "Past performance is not indicative of future results."

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In most things it is

[eduggs]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:29 PM, dryslot said:

They all don't work out that way though in most instances, There is still changes to go at this lead,

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I think the GFS OP resolution matters. And I also think the GEFS tend to shift with the OP, rendering them relatively unpredictive of true spread and likely trend. The 18z GFS was pretty ugly. There's still time, but once this gets inside 5 days or so, you don't want to have to rely on massive model errors.

[Hoth]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:35 PM, JC-CT said:

In most things it is

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That's the trap people fall into. It works until it doesn't.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The GEPS mean is right over the BM, or even a hair inside of it.

[JC-CT]

  On 1/23/2022 at 11:36 PM, Hoth said:

That's the trap people fall into. It works until it doesn't.

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in weather modeling, sure, because it's completely chaotic