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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
Just now, JC-CT said:

Maybe it's where you want it. It's not where I want it.

At some point the "it's right where we want it" line starts to ring more and more hollow as every run misses day after day. If the solution envelope really included a coastal hugger, you'd expect to see that appear in some random runs along the way. Sort of like the CMC did.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
Just now, PhineasC said:

At some point the "it's right where we want it" line starts to ring more and more hollow as every run misses day after day. If the solution envelope really included a coastal hugger, you'd expect to see that appear in some random runs along the way. Sort of like the CMC did.

We have a few cycles before it matters a lot. This system is still like 5.5-6 days out and there’s plenty of ensemble support still. 
 

I do think a regression on the 00z suite would be a bad sign but status quo wouldn’t necessarily be awful. 

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PhineasC

PhineasC

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We have a few cycles before it matters a lot. This system is still like 5.5-6 days out and there’s plenty of ensemble support still. 
 

I do think a regression on the 00z suite would be a bad sign but status quo wouldn’t necessarily be awful. 

I think it's a good sign that there is still a strong storm on these runs. Weak shredded bitch low sliding due east is a bigger red flag. This is still a big low on a NE heading, just needs to adjust west. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We have a few cycles before it matters a lot. This system is still like 5.5-6 days out and there’s plenty of ensemble support still. 
 

I do think a regression on the 00z suite would be a bad sign but status quo wouldn’t necessarily be awful. 

Yeah, I say that a little tongue in cheek. But I feel like a lot of the "oh it's going to trend this way or that way because x or y model bias or because of z pattern recognition" is usually either anecdotal or at best a relatively minor factor when compared to "the models are often just wrong, in any and every way imaginable." So I'd ALWAYS rather be in the bullseye, because who knows which adjustments will happen and which ones will offset, etc etc. Not wanting to be in the bullseye at N hours out is, to me, a bit superstitious.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah, I say that a little tongue in cheek. But I feel like a lot of the "oh it's going to trend this way or that way because x or y model bias or because of z pattern recognition" is usually either anecdotal or at best a relatively minor factor when compared to "the models are often just wrong, in any and every way imaginable." So I'd ALWAYS rather be in the bullseye, because who knows which adjustments will happen and which ones will offset, etc etc. Not wanting to be in the bullseye at N hours out is, to me, a bit superstitious.

Yeah I think sometimes though you can gauge the pattern and correction probabilities…but this may not be one of those cases. 
 

Like, for example, in a SWFE setup, I don’t want to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. They definitely tick north more often than not. Doesn’t happen all the time but I’ll play the odds. 
 

As for this system, I feel like this has the ability to slingshot sharply north so I don’t mind it being a little offshore. I want the scenarios to be a whiff or a crushing. No BGM or ALB tracks. I get that further west in western MA and W CT might feel differently. 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think sometimes though you can gauge the pattern and correction probabilities…but this may not be one of those cases. 
 

Like, for example, in a SWFE setup, I don’t want to be in the bullseye 3-4 days out. They definitely tick north more often than not. Doesn’t happen all the time but I’ll play the odds. 
 

As for this system, I feel like this has the ability to slingshot sharply north so I don’t mind it being a little offshore. I want the scenarios to be a whiff or a crushing. No BGM or ALB tracks. I get that further west in western MA and W CT might feel differently. 

It's an interesting conversation...maybe someday we will figure out a way to start tracking and measuring these kind of things. It's probably doable with some manual effort. It's like, at what point does the inherent odds of an adjustment one way vs another exceed the benefit of simply having the most room for adjustment while still getting a decent outcome that you get with the bm-like track? I'm not sure the answer. I'd also say, with the caveat that I know it's an obvious thing to say, that there's a difference between wanting it to be a scraper because you think it will trend west vs saying you are happy with it being 500 miles east of the benchmark because "they come west." Like, there's a limit there to what I'd be comfortable with. Some of those 12z OP runs were starting to push it a little.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

It's an interesting conversation...maybe someday we will figure out a way to start tracking and measuring these kind of things. It's probably doable with some manual effort. It's like, at what point does the inherent odds of an adjustment one way vs another exceed the benefit of simply having the most room for adjustment while still getting a decent outcome that you get with the bm-like track? I'm not sure the answer. I'd also say, with the caveat that I know it's an obvious thing to say, that there's a difference between wanting it to be a scraper because you think it will trend west vs saying you are happy with it being 500 miles east of the benchmark because "they come west." Like, there's a limit there to what I'd be comfortable with. Some of those 12z OP runs were starting to push it a little.

Yeah there is definitely an anecdotal element to it for sure. But in some cases (like maybr this one?), you can use ensemble spread to hedge as well. Like right now, there’s considerable spread to the west which is frequently a red flag in coastals. 

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