ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:24 PM, CoastalWx said: Yeah that is a no verbatim. But then again it yes to this weekend at this time. Expand And recall why it was a yes….it dumped the energy in the southwest and waited for the northern stream to outrun it and then amplify behind it. If that same bias is in play here, then it corrects to a big hit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:11 PM, PhineasC said: I only have total precip maps but I assume that must be one hell of a low slamming into New England. Expand I was just referring to the coarse product at Tropical Tidbits to make for some humor.... Still, it took a ..I dunno, 996 mb low near the S.C. coast, and 24 hours later, it was like 960 in the GOM... In order to get between those two locations, while heights fell some 30 dm at the trough core in stride ... means their somebody gets that ass handed to them 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: And recall why it was a yes….it dumped the energy in the southwest and waited for the northern stream to outrun it and then amplify behind it. If that same bias is in play here, then it corrects to a big hit. Expand That’s a good point too. It wouldn’t take much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Euro holds the energy back in the southwest too much so the trough doesn’t go negative early enough. Definitely a concern, but that is one of its biases and hopefully we see the EPS step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Hopefully EPS moves west and shows a nice hugger cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I think it's fair to ask, if holding the energy back in the sw is a bias specific to the Euro OP, then why is the GFS OP even more pronounced with it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 For George. NAVGEM misses by 500 miles. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:29 PM, PhineasC said: Hopefully EPS moves west and shows a nice hugger cluster. Expand I was just looking at the GEFs mean trough on this 12z at 144 hours, and comparing it to the two previous. It's interesting because this run has it deeper, and more W, ... Meanwhile, the mslp/members product is showing the pressure contours continue to bow NW where there are very deep members in that spread vector, around that same hour. That's intriguing...The former being more west ( deeper no less) ... sort of gives opportunity to the spread members to be on to something. I just suspect this not being inside the Euro wheelhouse of < 4.5 days may not be ideally advantageous for that particular model. So there are some moving parts in the early determinism philosophy here - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:32 PM, weathafella said: For George. NAVGEM misses by 500 miles. Expand 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 5:31 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s too perfect for the WOR crowd. Oh well. Expand I'm sorry--what is WOR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 5:51 PM, wxsniss said: Someone earlier this season alluded to the Idaho peak of the ridge axis as a great setup for EC hit A lot of irrational panics about this last night. 6 days away. And I weigh Euro op maybe just a little more than just another ensemble member this far out. We're in a good spot. Expand I'm not sure which posts were irrational.....trends last night weren't great, and that was acknowledged. If anyone punted day 6-7 potential, please quote and 5 post 'em. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:38 PM, moneypitmike said: I'm sorry--what is WOR? Expand West of River 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:30 PM, JC-CT said: I think it's fair to ask, if holding the energy back in the sw is a bias specific to the Euro OP, then why is the GFS OP even more pronounced with it Expand Relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. If we just view the southern energy by itself then the gfs looks worse but when we view it relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. GFS is slower overall in the flow so the northern stream isn’t running as far out ahead of it as the euro is. At 108h, the GFS has the southern energy near the 4 corners region but the northern vortmax is near the Iowa/Nebraska border…the Euro though has the southern energy a little bit east in NM, but that northern vortmax is over Detroit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:38 PM, moneypitmike said: I'm sorry--what is WOR? Expand WOR What is it good for? Absolutely nothing 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure which posts were irrational.....trends last night weren't great, and that was acknowledged. If anyone punted day 6-7 potential, please quote and 5 post 'em. Expand Hope you're in the process of a write-up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:48 PM, Henry's Weather said: Hope you're in the process of a write-up! Expand The staff are gathering necessary facts before he writes it. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:32 PM, weathafella said: For George. NAVGEM misses by 500 miles. Expand Yesterday someone said we have the NAVGEM right where we want it. We still do, lol. I guess we have the JMA and the GGEM right where we want them. That should lock this in - . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:39 PM, ORH_wxman said: Relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. If we just view the southern energy by itself then the gfs looks worse but when we view it relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. GFS is slower overall in the flow so the northern stream isn’t running as far out ahead of it as the euro is. At 108h, the GFS has the southern energy near the 4 corners region but the northern vortmax is near the Iowa/Nebraska border…the Euro though has the southern energy a little bit east in NM, but that northern vortmax is over Detroit. Expand That trailing s/w coming out of Canada that phases in late to really nuke the system and tilt the trough negative is similarly timed though on both models. At 138h it’s over Lk Superior on both models. I feel like the GFS dragging that SW s/w out slower let’s that Canadian s/w phase in sooner westward whereas the wave spacing on the euro is larger and hence a later phase. The GGEM starts to really take on a different look after 102h. That western ridge really amplifies and the energy diving out of Canada comes in much steeper (N/S) and sooner and the whole system starts going bonkers early. so even though the southern s/w ejects out of the SW faster than the euro it’s getting the Canadian phasing sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 6:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm not sure which posts were irrational.....trends last night weren't great, and that was acknowledged. If anyone punted day 6-7 potential, please quote and 5 post 'em. Expand I mean, I did...but I was joking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 EPS looks like it must have some decent members. Again not bad this far out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 EPS says the OP is kind of out to lunch? I do like that both GFS/Euro OPs were on the wide right envelope of their ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 7:07 PM, CoastalWx said: EPS looks like it must have some decent members. Again not bad this far out. Expand Yeah, I mean...da fook? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 What's not to like? Game is still on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 7:09 PM, JC-CT said: Yeah, I mean...da fook? Expand GEFS for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 7:09 PM, JC-CT said: Yeah, I mean...da fook? Expand Op is drunk from partying last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 7:11 PM, MJO812 said: Op is drunk from partying last night Expand The counterpoint is the OPs agree with each other on which side of the ensembles they are on, which also agree with the germans and the british (which notoriously do not like to agree, as many historians have noted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 4:22 PM, JC-CT said: No, they cant Expand Fired up my TRS-80 to run the MM5 as I writes this. Will post when completed. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 On 1/23/2022 at 7:04 PM, dendrite said: That trailing s/w coming out of Canada that phases in late to really nuke the system and tilt the trough negative is similarly timed though on both models. At 138h it’s over Lk Superior on both models. I feel like the GFS dragging that SW s/w out slower let’s that Canadian s/w phase in sooner westward whereas the wave spacing on the euro is larger and hence a later phase. The GGEM starts to really take on a different look after 102h. That western ridge really amplifies and the energy diving out of Canada comes in much steeper (N/S) and sooner and the whole system starts going bonkers early. so even though the southern s/w ejects out of the SW faster than the euro it’s getting the Canadian phasing sooner. Expand Bringing some serious analysis. You’re on the verge of a major investment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 THE KING HAS SPOKEN 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 For the detail-oriented... (and I don't think this kind of scrutiny this early is informative... so much will change in the next few days): 12z (green) vs. 0z EPS: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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