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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
  On 1/23/2022 at 6:24 PM, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that is a no verbatim. But then again it yes to this weekend at this time. 

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And recall why it was a yes….it dumped the energy in the southwest and waited for the northern stream to outrun it and then amplify behind it. If that same bias is in play here, then it corrects to a big hit. 

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
  On 1/23/2022 at 6:11 PM, PhineasC said:

I only have total precip maps but I assume that must be one hell of a low slamming into New England.

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I was just referring to the coarse product at Tropical Tidbits to make for some humor....

Still, it took a ..I dunno, 996 mb low near the S.C. coast, and 24 hours later, it was like 960 in the GOM... 

In order to get between those two locations, while heights fell some 30 dm at the trough core in stride ... means their somebody gets that ass handed to them

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 1/23/2022 at 6:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

And recall why it was a yes….it dumped the energy in the southwest and waited for the northern stream to outrun it and then amplify behind it. If that same bias is in play here, then it corrects to a big hit. 

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That’s a good point too. It wouldn’t take much. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
  On 1/23/2022 at 6:29 PM, PhineasC said:

Hopefully EPS moves west and shows a nice hugger cluster.

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I was just looking at the GEFs mean trough on this 12z at 144 hours, and comparing it to the two previous.  It's interesting because this run has it deeper, and more W, ...

Meanwhile, the mslp/members product is showing the pressure contours continue to bow NW where there are very deep members in that spread vector, around that same hour.

That's intriguing...The former being more west ( deeper no less) ... sort of gives opportunity to the spread members to be on to something. 

I just suspect this not being inside the Euro wheelhouse of < 4.5 days may not be ideally advantageous for that particular model. 

So there are some moving parts in the early determinism philosophy here -

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
  On 1/23/2022 at 5:51 PM, wxsniss said:

Someone earlier this season alluded to the Idaho peak of the ridge axis as a great setup for EC hit

A lot of irrational panics about this last night. 6 days away. And I weigh Euro op maybe just a little more than just another ensemble member this far out.

We're in a good spot.

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I'm not sure which posts were irrational.....trends last night weren't great, and that was acknowledged. If anyone punted day 6-7 potential, please quote and 5 post 'em.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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  On 1/23/2022 at 6:30 PM, JC-CT said:

I think it's fair to ask, if holding the energy back in the sw is a bias specific to the Euro OP, then why is the GFS OP even more pronounced with it

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Relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. If we just view the southern energy by itself then the gfs looks worse but when we view it relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. GFS is slower overall in the flow so the northern stream isn’t running as far out ahead of it as the euro is. 
 

At 108h, the GFS has the southern energy near the 4 corners region but the northern vortmax is near the Iowa/Nebraska border…the Euro though has the southern energy a little bit east in NM, but that northern vortmax is over Detroit. 

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Henry's Weather

Henry's Weather

Posted
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  On 1/23/2022 at 6:38 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure which posts were irrational.....trends last night weren't great, and that was acknowledged. If anyone punted day 6-7 potential, please quote and 5 post 'em.

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Hope you're in the process of a write-up!

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
  On 1/23/2022 at 6:39 PM, ORH_wxman said:


Relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. If we just view the southern energy by itself then the gfs looks worse but when we view it relative to the northern stream it doesn’t. GFS is slower overall in the flow so the northern stream isn’t running as far out ahead of it as the euro is. 
 

At 108h, the GFS has the southern energy near the 4 corners region but the northern vortmax is near the Iowa/Nebraska border…the Euro though has the southern energy a little bit east in NM, but that northern vortmax is over Detroit. 

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That trailing s/w coming out of Canada that phases in late to really nuke the system and tilt the trough negative is similarly timed though on both models. At 138h it’s over Lk Superior on both models. I feel like the GFS dragging that SW s/w out slower let’s that Canadian s/w phase in sooner westward whereas the wave spacing on the euro is larger and hence a later phase. 

The GGEM starts to really take on a different look after 102h. That western ridge really amplifies and the energy diving out of Canada comes in much steeper (N/S) and sooner and the whole system starts going bonkers early. so even though the southern s/w ejects out of the SW faster than the euro it’s getting the Canadian phasing sooner. 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
  On 1/23/2022 at 7:04 PM, dendrite said:

That trailing s/w coming out of Canada that phases in late to really nuke the system and tilt the trough negative is similarly timed though on both models. At 138h it’s over Lk Superior on both models. I feel like the GFS dragging that SW s/w out slower let’s that Canadian s/w phase in sooner westward whereas the wave spacing on the euro is larger and hence a later phase. 

The GGEM starts to really take on a different look after 102h. That western ridge really amplifies and the energy diving out of Canada comes in much steeper (N/S) and sooner and the whole system starts going bonkers early. so even though the southern s/w ejects out of the SW faster than the euro it’s getting the Canadian phasing sooner. 

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Bringing some serious analysis.  You’re on the verge of a major investment 

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