Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Now i am Changing from long shot to short shot.

It’s too perfect for the WOR crowd. Oh well.

[EastonSN+]

I hope this turns into repeat of 2015 model war. 

It's hard to beat a team twice as they say (really it's a third time but whatever).

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I was describing the ridge morphology and how it looked to me like some guidance were stretching the L/W trough down stream of the ridge too prodigiously, to JC' ( heh, gave him some 101 diagrams because I am an excruciating nerd lol)... but, I'm all for any run that does not stress that geometry to the boundary of believability.

I say again ...the flow winds at basal state are slowing, and upstream...the NE Pac is entering the AB phase..  Those two are likely related indirectly, but should factor in how the trough orients E of ~ 100 W across mid latitudes.  

I'm not trying to be some Gomer trying buck for the amp runs.  Tell me where that's wrong.

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s too perfect for the WOR crowd. Oh well.

I live model run to model run. 

[cleetussnow]

Yeah. 29 spot at my house on the GGEM.

if this thing goes down anywhere near that I vote we call this storm George.  

 

Twc will probably name it eugene.  

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Would be nice to see ANY support from the Euro.

It’s not what it once, was so it’s solution goes into the basket with all the others.

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s too perfect for the WOR crowd. Oh well.

I'm fine with it being modeled to nail eastern NE. Heck, Feb 2013 was modeled to drop like 6-10" on the WOR crowd, and look how that turned out.

[dryslot]

Its just another wrench in the tool box.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

36 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

Up and dancing 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s not what it once, was so it’s solution goes into the basket with all the others.

Why did they downgrade it?

[wxsniss]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The larger scale trough positions have improved since 00z. We’re still working out the nuances with the two pieces of energy but I like where the larger features are at the moment. We’ve had some huge New England specials with the ridge axis over Dakotas/Wyoming/Colorado. Feb 2013 Mar 2001, and Feb 1978 come to mind off the top of my head but I’m sure there are others. 

Someone earlier this season alluded to the Idaho peak of the ridge axis as a great setup for EC hit

A lot of irrational panics about this last night. 6 days away. And I weigh Euro op maybe just a little more than just another ensemble member this far out.

We're in a good spot.

[Typhoon Tip]

Let's do a model prediction head game ...

Euro - comes in at 12z with no storm at all.  ...that's a neat trick.  Flattened so much that ECMWF head-quarters must now face the moment of decision: do we take this p.o.s. off line and APB a disclaimer.  They opt out, because ( phew!) it's absolutely nailing the highs and lows out in the middle of the Saharan dune country of N Aftrica, and they can always fall back on besting all other models "where it really counts" - there, and 75 mi N of Utqiagvik AK, and the regions immediately adjacent to western Europe.

GGEM loses it at 00z, but ...being the GGEM ..that's kinda okay?   We know that it's kind of like Ralph Phillips from Looney Tunes ( kinda like George01 in a way now that I think about it -) and we just pat it on the back, and it goes, "..Oh, sorry," and it jumps perhaps 70% back on board tomorrow morning..

UKMET plots bombs between the BM and Cape Hatteras and ALB, but wins the best aggregate/ n- placements that happen to average out to the best scores.  But  we like that..., because it offers solutions for the subversive trollers when they need to reach for content, but also delivers the best support in closing arguments of the equally irritating over-optimists...

GFS ... is just an asshole - what do we expect from an American A.I. design.  I mean, art reflects the wielder of the paint in that sense.

JMA is under the radar perfect on this one storm ( see yesterday's 12z ..which ironically, is the best conceptual behavior that fits everyone's salient critical observations..) *but*, since it has been perfectly wrong on everything else ... like ever, it never set its self up to really be seen.

ICON?  ... anyway -

 

 

[Henry's Weather]

36 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I really think a little piece of James' soul broke off and embedded in Georgie. Like an undying horcrux of weather weenieness. 

it's a comforting thought

[Henry's Weather]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Let's do a model prediction head game ...

Euro - comes in at 12z with no storm at all.  ...that's a neat trick.  Flattened so much that ECMWF head-quarters must now face the moment of decision: do we take this p.o.s. off line and APB a disclaimer.  The opt out, because it's absolutely nail the highs and lows out in the middle of the Saharan dune country of N Aftrica, and they can always fall back on besting all other models "where it really counts" - there, and 75 mi N of Utqiagvik AK, and the regions immediately adjacent to western Europe.

GGEM loses it at 00z, but ...being the GGEM ..that's kinda okay?   We know that it's kind of like Ralph Phillips from Looney Tunes ( kinda like George01 in a way now that I think about it -) and we just pat it on the back, and it goes, "..Oh, sorry, and it jumps perhaps 70% back on board tomorrow morning..

UKMET plots bombs between the BM and Cape Hatteras and ALB, but wins the best aggregate/ n- placements that happen to average out to the best scores.  But  we like that..., because it offers solutions for the subversive trollers when they need to reach for content, but also delivers the best support in closing arguments of the equally irritating over-optimists...

GFS ... is just an asshole - what do we expect from an American A.I. design.  I mean, art reflects the wielder of the paint in that sense.

JMA is under the radar perfect on this one storm ( see yesterday's 12z ..which ironically, is the best conceptual behavior that fits everyone's salient critical observations..) *but*, since it has been perfectly wrong on everything else ... like ever, it never set its self up to really be seen.

ICON?  ... anyway -

 

 

mannnn I hope youre right about the 12z JMA from yesterday being the most synoptically congruent because I'll take 3 inches of noreaster QPF imby

[Ginx snewx]

37 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The larger scale trough positions have improved since 00z. We’re still working out the nuances with the two pieces of energy but I like where the larger features are at the moment. We’ve had some huge New England specials with the ridge axis over Dakotas/Wyoming/Colorado. Feb 2013 Mar 2001, and Feb 1978 come to mind off the top of my head but I’m sure there are others. 

Feb 13 actually had a neg pna if you recall

[PhineasC]

I just looked at the JMA for the first time in forever and yeah it's really wet.

[Modfan2]

3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I just looked at the JMA for the first time in forever and yeah it's really wet.

That’s what she said! Lol

[Henry's Weather]

Just now, Modfan2 said:

That’s what she said! Lol

Yeah maybe if she was a snow weenie obsessing over QPF model output 6 days out. But who are we to blame her?

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

I just looked at the JMA for the first time in forever and yeah it's really wet.

Yeah ...she's a team player

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

That’s what she said! Lol

I was debating how to phrase that to see if I could avoid the easy jokes but there was just no way. LOL

She was moist as hell at 12z, no sugarcoating it.

[PhineasC]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...she's a team player

I only have total precip maps but I assume that must be one hell of a low slamming into New England.

[Henry's Weather]

BOX AFD:

"It is Fri night into Sat night where the confidence in the forecast really starts to dwindle. Recent deterministic global model runs have showed varying solutions both in track and strength pertaining to a developing coastal storm near the SE US coast, induced by a potent shortwave trough along the Gulf Coast or Carolina coast. The deep amplitude and location of the longwave trough near the western slope of the Appalachians in most models indicates an inland track is a less favored outcome. This is reflected in GEFS/GEPS/EPS ensemble mean low track being more offshore near or SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. Only a small minority of individual members show an inland track; while most members reflect a coastal/offshore track, there`s large spread in the members in terms of how close to the SNE coast the storm may get. Have mention of PoP across all of SNE for Fri night into Sat night; but sided PoP to slight or low chance northwest of I-95; then to more solid Chance (30-40%) near the coastal plain to the offshore waters. This isn`t the final answer, and expect changes to come to these as well. However this should be a good starting point with adjustments up or down as more coherent and consistent trends develop in the coming days. What we can say is that it is looking like a coastal storm should be somewhere either over the Eastern US coast or offshore in the Fri night to Sat night timeframe, but it`s far too uncertain to lock into any solution given the location and strength spread in the ensembles. Sunday however looks dry or with improving conditions but uncertainty from Fri-Sat night lingers into Sunday too. Stay tuned!"

 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

mannnn I hope youre right about the 12z JMA from yesterday being the most synoptically congruent because I'll take 3 inches of noreaster QPF imby

Well ...it was at the time, relative to the synoptics.. Frankly still is a reasonable solution - huge this or that imby, aside.   The synoptics can change though, and that would render that not such a good fit - so...it's not a 'you're right' or wrong ...I'm not using the JMA for any determinism by using it to make a joke with. Lol

[Typhoon Tip]

You know a model is giddy when it's graphics are so intense one can no longer make out the state lines... It's like in Space Balls, "We've gone to plaid!"

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Dr No has returned.

[Hoth]

I'll tell you one thing I like about this one. The high is not diving towards Bermuda.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks like a mess at 114h. Southern energy dragging like it has an anchor attached to its ass. 

[weathafella]

Yeah somehow if euro gets it done it will be in a different format 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Dr No has returned.

Yeah that is a no verbatim. But then again it said yes to this weekend at this time. 

[dryslot]

Euro just loves to hold back s/w in the SW US.