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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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ORH_wxman
ORH_wxman

I’m deleting all that crap. Anyone make a political references in the wx thread again, I’ll just can them for 5 days. We are the most lenient subforum on here….but everyone should know better than to

bristolri_wx
bristolri_wx

My apologies if this is off topic… As we hit 380 pages on this thread, and we wait for the 18z Euro, I just want to express my gratitude to everyone who participates in these threads. The communi

George001
George001

Ok I’ve seen enough to make my preliminary forecast. Now that the Navy is on board, I am very confident that this low isn’t going to disappear. The question is not going to be out to sea or benchmark

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Why would I stay up at night when you can't see anything?  Makes no sense at all in my mind. Get your sleep.

Lol I was out cleaning snow in Jan 11 during 60 mph gusts with thunder and lightning and zero visibility one of the most surreal experiences. Another one the Jan 15 blitz at night with snow whipping so hard it stung. Glorious nights alone in the midst. You can sleep when you are dead. Alive is the time for the surreal experiences. They don't come often. Window watching Charlie Brown style ain't my thing.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Full disclosure my way ...I'd call the purpose of this engagement a success if while we close the gap on days this remains relevant. 

The purpose of this thread, to put it nicely,... is the philosophy and recognition, early synoptic super structures and those facets therein that lend to increasing possibilities.   Going to the casino to play the game of chance can be a certainty; whatever happens there is not.  We should be able to maintain some semblance of cogent categorization, and not behave as irresponsible throngs storming the White House as malcontent nimrods. And yes ... of course, snark and jokes are always welcome lol..  But, just to be clear, it's not intended for assessing whether a system impacts one's back yard, nor to advance any expectation for week's worth of dependable d-drip on some kind of e-psychotropic cinema addiction.  If those are the expectations, your likely to be disappointed more than stoned - just warnin'  

1 ..  high confidence for a significant event, for one analytic, the other symbolic. Analytically, this system has a deep history in the ensemble means.  It really began ( arguably...) showing up when this was 300 hours back in the day. I remember commenting that there was a large signal beyond the two events were covering at the time. Symbolic and a-priori, bigger events in the atmosphere, sometimes show at unusually long leads.  It seems this system festering in the clusters regardless of where, might be a candidate.

2 .. where is in question - not trying to cop out. I was clear last night that I was not sure what to make of the yo-yoing gong on between west and east positions - but it's also f'ing D8 at the time.  I will note that the Euro has yet to put out that big dawg solution. I almost wonder if there's a sneaky value-add to see that at least once, ... before of course it summarily then loses it as though ECMWF corporate intended to send the psychosis meter pressed toward the fever pitch end - I dunno, maybe they're just trying to find the best time place the tack on the chair. Ha! 

3 .. there are still reasons on the table for the present overnight EPS/GEFs means to plot back NW ... Lest we recall, just prior to the last event, these guidance were persistently situating deep solutions over ACK to the BM, run after run ..after run, and it ended up W of the Hudson.  Not sure this won't eventually manifest that same sort of error.   We are heading it would seem, ...into an impressive -EPO.  In fact, the event in question happens as that is emerging.  That's interesting ... Even though the block associated with the former, is where it is, and we are way over here.. that does provide and interesting non-linear suggestion for subtracting the W-E bias of the field down stream of it.  That's a fuzzy concept for some most likely, but just think of that as systems down stream respond to a more N-S exertion that isn't really observable on the weather map. This is advance wave mechanics/theory, non-linear forcing.  Linear wave forcing is when A --> B --> C ... D, directly, but non is when A --> D, but B and C may not observe any influence. 

5 .. it has a bigger risk upside than other systems this year, so at 50/50 It has that 'it' factor, where if things come together, we're likely seeing a system evolve pretty far above the mere middling.  

Those are deterministic values for now... 

My personal observation of the overnight is that the < L/W mechanics spaces are also weaker.  Weaker in this scenario is not helping matters for west enthusiasts, because a stronger system would propagate a S/W ridge component out ahead, and that would help feed-back toward the left. 

Also, I'm not confident the flow structure down stream of the W ridge is handled quite right - possibly related to that. It's not progressive, so it gives the allusion that the runs are trying to stretch the L/W into an less likely X-coordinate length.

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Also, I'm not confident the flow structure down stream of the W ridge is handled quite right - possibly related to that. It's not progressive, so it gives the allusion that the runs are trying to stretch the L/W into an less likely X-coordinate length.

Would you mind elaborating a little on what this means? I genuinely don't understand.

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Snowcrazed71

Snowcrazed71

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure what you guys expect 6+ days out.  I want nothing to do with a jackpot 6 days out. Kiss of death. 

I couldn't agree more. When I look at this 06z model run oh, I see a great opportunity 4 a great storm chance. Not wishful thinking. Too many of you Debbie Downers here because you're so sad about not having snow crying about what we didn't get. All it will take is one big snow storm for everyone to feel excited and satisfied. We still have all of February and most of March not at the least giving up on this one yet. Great potential still

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PhineasC

PhineasC

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I was surprised to see a powerful storm still on the models at least, albeit offshore. This has a different look than the usual OTS whiff scenarios where the storm turns into a weak POS and just kinda drifts away out of view. I could see this creeping towards the coast. GFS already hooks it back into ME and NNH a little as it is. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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1 hour ago, JC-CT said:

Would you mind elaborating a little on what this means? I genuinely don't understand.

Sure ...

image.png.645519a95eabefef9d9c25c41fc48865.png

... for L/Ws left unperturbed,they will tend to become orderly and symmetric like above.

When L/W are no longer in stasis... i.e., a S/W space enters the left side and propagate through, it will stress ( 'stretch') this shape,  and the symmetry is reduced while that is taking place, but since mass in the atmosphere is not lost or destroyed, the integral masses will remain the same - constantly being restored by the wind/air motion...  

So, using this basic precept:   our ridge in the west bumps maybe a half a time-zone E, just because it too is answering to outside forcing. But the short-wave spacing that it is propelling out ahead ( the driver for our 'would-be' storm of interest), runs out ahead by almost double. It can happen... because the long wave may simply end up taking on an orientation like this,

image.png.a3302ea67ce30a8b30a26ca2c14240a7.png See.. here the 'Y' region in the west, and the 'X' region in the east look less mirrored, but don't violate the integrals ...  The trough is pulled in the west to east direction ( which I called the x-coordinate) ... that may not seem problematic to the lay-person, but I don't see why the stretching has to happen at the end of this week, because: Stretching can happen and does when the flow is fast.  However, the flow as modeled appears to be slowing. Seems that's a little off... ( maybe-) to pull that flow structure.

There is a strongly coupled relationship between long wave structure, and the short wave structures that modulate because of the former.  If this L/W is being pulled in the east to west direction down stream of the western ridge, too much, than it will feed back negatively on S/W entering trough part of the total L/W space in the east. 

 

 

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JC-CT

JC-CT

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sure ...

image.png.645519a95eabefef9d9c25c41fc48865.png

L/W is left unperturbed will tend to become orderly and symmetric.

When L/W are no longer in stasis... i.e., a S/W space enters the left side and propagate through, it will stress ( 'stretch') this shape,  and the symmetry is reduced while that is taking place, but since mass in the atmosphere is not lost or destroyed, the integral masses will remain the same - constantly being restored by the wind/air motion...  

So, using this basic precept:   our ridge in the west bumps maybe a half a time-zone E, just because it too is answering to outside forcing. But the short-wave spacing that it is propelling out ahead ( the driver for our 'would-be' storm of interest), runs out ahead by almost double. It can happen... because the wave may simply end up taking on an orientation like this,

image.png.a3302ea67ce30a8b30a26ca2c14240a7.png See.. here the 'Y' region in the west, and the 'X' region in the east look less mirrored, but don't violate the integrals ...  The trough is pulled in the west to east direction ( which I called the x-coordinate) ... that may not seem problematic to the lay-person, but I don't see what the stretching has to happen at the end of this week.  Stretching can happen and does, when the flow is fast, but the flow is slowing. Seems that's a little off... ( maybe-)

There is a strongly coupled relationship between long wave structure, and the short wave structures that modulate because of the former.  If this L/W is being pulled in the east to west direction down stream of the western ridge, too much, than it will feed back negatively on S/W entering trough part of the total L/W space in the east. 

Let me test my understanding...the "pulling" of the long wave trough east is possible but not necessarly "standard." If the lw trough does get pulled east, it would probably deamplify the sw, thus limiting the pulling of the trough axis?

What about the dynamic of a strong sw raising heights out in front of it...isnt that a factor that typically is a natural limiter of a strong sw destroying the lw trough it is embedded in?

Usually we are talking about other factors besides the main sw being the culprits of moving around the 500mb trough.

Also thank you for taking the time to answer my question, really appreciate it.

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Rain, snow, blizzard whatever if this happens on Saturday ice festival at lake Winne I’m going to be pissed.

Hoping this becomes a Friday event.

Yeah, we have a big W MA, outdoor Cub Scout event on Saturday but the timing pretty much points to that day no matter what the final solution is. 

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