Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[CoastalWx]

As I said earlier, a few different ways to get something. 

[mahk_webstah]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:15 PM, ORH_wxman said:

06z eps

 

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A lean west but still the lean is outside 40-70

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

It’s not a progressive pattern guys. 

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Then how comes the models can't amplify anything?

[dendrite]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:19 PM, MJO812 said:

Then how comes the models can't amplify anything?

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They’ve been modeling 950mb lows a week out…wtf?

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:20 PM, dendrite said:

They’ve been modeling 950mb lows a week out…wtf?

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I'm talking about closer to the coast instead of not phasing.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:19 PM, MJO812 said:

Then how comes the models can't amplify anything?

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They are… but for eastern Canada 

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:22 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

They are… but for eastern Canada 

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They are phasing too late

Which means the pattern is still too progressive for us. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:18 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not a bad spot 6 days out 

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Yes, thank you Will. 
 

Everybody wants to see it in a perfect spot 6-7 days out. WTF?  It’s fine where it is at the moment.  
 

the modeling doesn’t have every major player modeled perfectly at a week out. Not even remotely close. You change one lil thing and it’s east or west etc etc of where it is today.  The signal is there still. Let’s keep it like that for a bit longer. 

[MJO812]

My area sucks for snow but your area shouldn't really be struggling in this pattern.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:19 PM, MJO812 said:

Then how comes the models can't amplify anything?

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Because perhaps the ridg/trough placement isn’t ideal for a specific location. But progressive patterns are ones that offer weak or no cyclogenesis. This one is going to have a strong system offshore. 

[CoastalWx]

I’m not sure what you guys expect 6+ days out.  I want nothing to do with a jackpot 6 days out. Kiss of death. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:23 PM, MJO812 said:

My area sucks for snow but your area shouldn't really be struggling in this pattern.

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Just because it’s not putting the system right where you think it should be at a week out, doesn’t mean it’s a progressive pattern at all. There’s a big ridge out west, and a deep trough along the east coast…all you need to see a week out imo. 

[powderfreak]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:25 PM, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure what you guys expect 6+ days out.  I want nothing to do with a jackpot 6 days out. Kiss of death. 

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Maybe seeing it be 970mb over SYR would be better at this time frame?  

[Damage In Tolland]

The best thing to plan on is a light to moderate event. It will snow , but can it get far enough NW to go Hammertime ?

[NotSureWeather]

LOL at everyone. ❄️

[dryslot]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:04 PM, dendrite said:

Yup…and many never learn. 

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Some are acting like this is east of bermuda heading to England, Its clipping the eastern areas and i would say that's a good place right now for it, Still 6+ days out and we only need a 75-100 mi shift over that period.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:29 PM, powderfreak said:

Maybe seeing it be 970mb over SYR would be better at this time frame?  

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Right!   I mean everybody all upset cuz it’s a bit east at a week out. Holy jeez.  Every single big boy we’ve ever gotten in the last 20 yrs has gone through this same cycle.  
 

If it were right on us at 6-7 days out, would that make people feel better?  I mean, if it were right where we wanted it today, it’s gonna stay right there for us for another week right?  Lmao….    This thing has some major evolving yet to come..Buckle up. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:25 PM, CoastalWx said:

I’m not sure what you guys expect 6+ days out.  I want nothing to do with a jackpot 6 days out. Kiss of death. 

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Yeah this season has thrown so many people on tilt. Literally throwing tantrums about sub-970 scrapers at D6. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think anyone said that. But there are certain setups when they can happen.

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It is HE who said big boys don’t happen in nina’s, they never do, which we proceeded to prove him wrong. So now he spins it. Ya can’t trust him.

[Ginx snewx]

Posted in wrong thread but 850 actually doesn't look bad

[ORH_wxman]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:37 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It is HE who said big boys don’t happen in nina’s, they never do, which we proceeded to prove him wrong. So now he spins it. Ya can’t trust him.

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Well he did sleep through most of the KUs in 2011 so you can’t totally blame him. Maybe when he woke up he thought he was shoveling several 3-6” events?

[Ginx snewx]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:36 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this season has thrown so many people on tilt. Literally throwing tantrums about sub-970 scrapers at D6. 

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We will wait for the NAM again for proper mid levels??

[dendrite]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:34 PM, dryslot said:

Some are acting like this is east of bermuda heading to England, Its clipping the eastern areas and i would say that's a good place right now for it, Still 6+ days out and we only need a 75-100 mi shift over that period.

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Weenies get scared. They need to see all models crushing their area on every run for a week straight. T minus 12 hours from go-time and we start getting the “all models suck” posts when the storm evolution looks nothing like it did at d7. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:38 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Well he did sleep through most of the KUs in 2011 so you can’t totally blame him. Maybe when he woke up he thought he was shoveling several 3-6” events?

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That's awful

Who sleeps through KU events ?

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:37 PM, Ginx snewx said:

Posted in wrong thread but 850 actually doesn't look bad

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Everything looks about where it should for almost a week out in time. We track and monitor. That’s all we can ask for at this juncture. It’s gonna ebb and flow over the next few days…more revelations coming with this. 

[dryslot]

I hope we start getting some HV runner tracks like the last one so the ones whining about it whiffing now will switch gears and whine about it tainting.

[WinterWolf]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:41 PM, dryslot said:

I hope we start getting some HV runner tracks like the last one so the ones whining about  whiffing now  will switch gears and whine about it tainting.

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Exactly.   Oh ya…that’s coming soon.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

The best thing to plan on is a light to moderate event. It will snow , but can it get far enough NW to go Hammertime ?

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Who are you?!?   

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:47 PM, HoarfrostHubb said:

Who are you?!?   

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He is I and I is him.. slim with the tilted brim 

[qg_omega]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:29 PM, powderfreak said:

Maybe seeing it be 970mb over SYR would be better at this time frame?  

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Yes very much so