mahk_webstah Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I don’t have a good feeling about this one. Big storms show early, generally, and when the ops waver it is no problem if the ens still look good. Clearly we need a shift in the data. The trend that we wake up to Tuesday morning will tell the tale for most while the eastern people hump, pump or jump every 6 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeSnowBOS Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I don’t have a good feeling about this one. Big storms show early, generally, and when the ops waver it is no problem if the ens still look good. Clearly we need a shift in the data. The trend that we wake up to Tuesday morning will tell the tale for most while the eastern people hump, pump or jump every 6 hours. What 06Z EPS look like? Worse then 12Z? Euro been offshore run after run unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 I don’t mind where it is at this stage. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 22 minutes ago, qg_omega said: She’s gone I picked up a foot from your last whiff call. Keep 'em coming. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 10 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: What 06Z EPS look like? Worse then 12Z? Euro been offshore run after run unfortunately Sort of looks like this when it comes to hitting the "target"..... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 13 minutes ago, JoeSnowBOS said: What 06Z EPS look like? Worse then 12Z? Euro been offshore run after run unfortunately Coming out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Gfs was basically all one s/w and no real phasing. Euro tries to phase. So two different ways to get something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 We go thru these same post every storm. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Hopefully this works out because that's it for snow chances for most given the warm Feb coming up. Only place that might snow after Jan is NNE. 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: We go thru these same post every storm. If we didn't, no one would be here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Guys cmon, signal is there. It’s a week away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: We go thru these same post every storm. Yup…and many never learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Yup…and many never learn. I guess we are looking for day 6-7 jacks. Those always work out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If we can get the s/w mossing off the Mid Atlantic at hr 114 on the 6z EPS, that leaves room to come closer. 6z EPS takes the s/w at the base of the trough and tries to blow it up at the end of the run. For 6 days out, I don’t have a huge issue. I get what the caveats are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Hopefully this works out because that's it for snow chances for most given the warm Feb coming up. Only place that might snow after Jan is NNE. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: H5 will tell you the whole story by 96 hours Flow is too fast for amplification I know Ray thinks big boys happen frequently in Ninas, but there’s a reason so few do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: I know Ray thinks big boys happen frequently in Ninas, but there’s a reason so few do They do for your area but this winter has been strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I know Ray thinks big boys happen frequently in Ninas, but there’s a reason so few do I don’t think anyone said that. But there are certain setups when they can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Did we all forget 12/17/20 and 2/2/21? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Did we all forget 2/2/21? 18 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yup…and many never learn. To be fair, the least impressive (as far as snow is concerned) guidance this year has been right. I get why people are apprehensive about doing this song and dance again, especially when there are flags that this may end up a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t think anyone said that. But there are certain setups when they can happen. No argument There. I just don’t think this is it. With no blocking and fast Pac jet.. progression is a dagger 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 06z eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: To be fair, the least impressive (as far as snow is concerned) guidance this year has been right. I get why people are apprehensive about doing this song and dance again, especially when there are flags that this may end up a fish storm. There is no point of getting excited anymore when any model shows something favorable past 200 hours. Some years storms trend favorable but this year it's different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No argument There. I just don’t think this is it. With no blocking and fast Pac jet.. progression is a dagger That's it Nothing to slow anything down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Also, that kicker on the west coast is trending in the wrong direction. Like many other storms this year, the turd in the punch bowl is trending more pronounced 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: 06z eps Congrats to the tuna out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 It’s not a progressive pattern guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Not a bad spot 6 days out 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Not a bad spot 6 days out WTTTE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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