Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[mahk_webstah]

I don’t have a good feeling about this one.  Big storms show early, generally, and when the ops waver it is no problem if the ens still look good.  Clearly we need a shift in the data.  The trend that we wake up to Tuesday morning will tell the tale for most while the eastern people hump, pump or jump every 6 hours.

[JoeSnowBOS]

  On 1/23/2022 at 12:36 PM, mahk_webstah said:

I don’t have a good feeling about this one.  Big storms show early, generally, and when the ops waver it is no problem if the ens still look good.  Clearly we need a shift in the data.  The trend that we wake up to Tuesday morning will tell the tale for most while the eastern people hump, pump or jump every 6 hours.

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What 06Z EPS look like?  Worse then 12Z? Euro been offshore run after run unfortunately 

[CoastalWx]

I don’t mind where it is at this stage. 

[Hoth]

  On 1/23/2022 at 12:31 PM, qg_omega said:

She’s gone 

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I picked up a foot from your last whiff call. Keep 'em coming.

[Great Snow 1717]

  On 1/23/2022 at 12:43 PM, JoeSnowBOS said:

What 06Z EPS look like?  Worse then 12Z? Euro been offshore run after run unfortunately 

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Sort of looks like this when it comes to hitting the "target".....

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 12:43 PM, JoeSnowBOS said:

What 06Z EPS look like?  Worse then 12Z? Euro been offshore run after run unfortunately 

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Coming out now

[CoastalWx]

Gfs was basically all one s/w and no real phasing. Euro tries to phase. So two different ways to get something. 

[dryslot]

We go thru these same post every storm.

[SnoSki14]

Hopefully this works out because that's it for snow chances for most given the warm Feb coming up. 

Only place that might snow after Jan is NNE. 

 

[moneypitmike]

  On 1/23/2022 at 12:59 PM, dryslot said:

We go thru these same post every storm.

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If we didn't, no one would be here.

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Guys cmon, signal is there. It’s a week away. 

[dendrite]

  On 1/23/2022 at 12:59 PM, dryslot said:

We go thru these same post every storm.

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Yup…and many never learn. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:04 PM, dendrite said:

Yup…and many never learn. 

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I guess we are looking for day 6-7 jacks. Those always work out.

[CoastalWx]

If we can get the s/w mossing off the Mid Atlantic at hr 114 on the 6z EPS, that leaves room to come closer. 
6z EPS takes the s/w at the base of the trough and tries to blow it up at the end of the run. For 6 days out, I don’t have a huge issue. I get what the caveats are. 

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:01 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Hopefully this works out because that's it for snow chances for most given the warm Feb coming up. 

Only place that might snow after Jan is NNE. 

 

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LOL

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/23/2022 at 12:29 PM, MJO812 said:

H5 will tell you the whole story by 96 hours

Flow is too fast for amplification

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I know Ray thinks big boys happen frequently in Ninas, but there’s a reason so few do 

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I know Ray thinks big boys happen frequently in Ninas, but there’s a reason so few do 

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They do for your area but this winter has been strange.

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:10 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

I know Ray thinks big boys happen frequently in Ninas, but there’s a reason so few do 

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I don’t think anyone said that. But there are certain setups when they can happen.

[CoastalWx]

Did we all forget 12/17/20 and  2/2/21?

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:12 PM, CoastalWx said:

Did we all forget 2/2/21?

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18 inches here

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:04 PM, dendrite said:

Yup…and many never learn. 

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To be fair, the least impressive (as far as snow is concerned) guidance this year has been right. I get why people are apprehensive about doing this song and dance again, especially when there are flags that this may end up a fish storm.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:11 PM, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think anyone said that. But there are certain setups when they can happen.

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No argument There. I just don’t think this is it. With no blocking and fast Pac jet.. progression is a dagger 

[ORH_wxman]

06z eps

 

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:14 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

To be fair, the least impressive (as far as snow is concerned) guidance this year has been right. I get why people are apprehensive about doing this song and dance again, especially when there are flags that this may end up a fish storm.

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There is no point of getting excited anymore when any model shows something favorable past 200 hours.  Some years storms trend favorable but this year it's different.

[MJO812]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

No argument There. I just don’t think this is it. With no blocking and fast Pac jet.. progression is a dagger 

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That's it

Nothing to slow anything down

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Also, that kicker on the west coast is trending in the wrong direction. Like many other storms this year, the turd in the punch bowl is trending more pronounced 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:15 PM, ORH_wxman said:

06z eps

 

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Congrats to the tuna out there 

[CoastalWx]

It’s not a progressive pattern guys. 

[ORH_wxman]

Not a bad spot 6 days out 

[CoastalWx]

  On 1/23/2022 at 1:18 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Not a bad spot 6 days out 

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WTTTE