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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

So many people overlook that propagation aspect, which really is the smoking gun in the whole SSW ordeal....I mean, who cares if it gets toasty up at 60K if it doesn't make it down to where the weather synoptically materializes in the troposphere.

As far as this season goes, I am resigned to failure on that aspect of my work this past fall.

+Yep for you!

... It's the modus operandi of failing modernity.  Certainly there is a vapid dearth of postmodernism (will to even question) so how can society be saved when everyone's into the orgy.  There's too much 'who ever gets the information out first,' goal, and people want others to admire them ambition. Probably the natural destiny of culture that was carried on with celebrity adoration tendency, then being given tech that can disseminate egos at electronic speeds.  Outright personal ambition for ooh and ahs, and dreams that follow is prooobably going to supersede that annoying slow down thing called science.  ...  Americans are on the narcissist spectrum somewhere ... most of western civility is, or is becoming that way.   And shit, if everyone's doing it, fewer are likely to ask the insightful analytical, "healthy skeptical" checks. Just take me at face value as long as I "sound" cool and cogent 

- but don't mind me, I hate everybody.

 

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11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I can tell you and I are a a lot alike from the baseball league lol

Ha, yea. It’s a microcosm on how we approach life.

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Mine is gone but really solid pack in parts of town on my trip down 14. We refill soon so no worries.  Enjoy the Jan thaw.

I don’t see how we get to April 1st without a couple good to great events. 

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is one clown on which I do not care to jack. Knock yourself out, Bret.

I get the fascination with wind damage but I like to keep my house in tact and my family safe while Ditty would rather have his roof collapse and his kids running for safety while he sleeps off another bender. To each is own…

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Sooo... 

I will to stay on my anticipation for a bigger correction type event as we close out the month... Thinking after the 25th.  I'm pretty sure Will and others/we've been discussing - no revelation there.

Before that happens, we deal with two, PNA flat-line/modest negative index type systems,  ~ Tues/We ...then Fri/Sa 

What interests me about them is how they are spacing so close in time, and both moving so fast?  It's weird, because both have 1 ... 2 SD QPF and the atm should need longer interim recovery.   ... that should be weird to people.  Turning over big events at fantastic rate is like the atmosphere has rabies.   But, I've been bitching and raging myself about the fast plaguing Earth going back seasons ... not shocked.  I've also noticed that when it comes to d-drip seeking, questioning and/or observance of such oddities only gets in the way of actually getting the drug -lol 

Also, by virtue of them being large, and also being "stretched" along the x-coordinate, they take a while to transpire so it makes it seem slow.  But they are moving very fast...

I think one of those two systems gets us into a mix impact scenario. So long as the models are sending 1040 mb high pressures pregnant with -20 to -30 C 850 mb air masses through Quebec, I have problems with mid range tools placing warm fronts from Watertown NY to mid coast Maine. Yesterday's runs seemed to backing off that bad climate look, but overnight, they stalled.  Heh.  Okay...   It's possible the first is too far west, and the 2nd is too far south; the models are not going to send out physically impossible solution - wouldn't be of much use if they did.   At least the existence of both is in all the majors, and the ens means, to that's a good start on actually getting some some sense of continuity,and with cold of that magnitude that close, and the PNA being really more neutral than that negative, it don't know if the flow is going to bottom out so deep in the SW that these things can break physical law by going through 1050 mb f'n wall.   

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Sooo... 

I will to stay on my anticipation for a bigger correction type event as we close out the month... Thinking after the 25th.  I'm pretty sure Will and others/we've been discussing - no revelation there.

Before that happens, we deal with two, PNA flat-line/modest negative index type systems,  ~ Tues/We ...then Fri/Sa 

What interests me about that is just have those spaced so close, and both moving so fast.  It's weird, because by virtue of them being large, and also being "stretched" along the x-coordinate, they take a while to transpire so it makes it seem slow.  But they are moving very fast...  two back to back events, that are both some 2 SD QPF ... that should be weird to people.  Turning over big events at fantastic rate is like the atmosphere has rabies.   But, I've been bitching and raging myself about the fast plaging Earth going back seasons ... not shocked.  I've also noticed that when it comes to d-drip seeking, questioning and/or observance of such oddities only gets in the way of actually getting the drug -lol 

I think one of those two systems gets us into a mix impact scenario. So long as the models are sending 1040 mb high pressures pregnant with -20 to -30 C 850 mb air mass through Quebec, I have problems with mid range tool putting warm fronts from water town Ny to mid coast Maine. Yesterday's runs seemed to backing off that bad climate look, but overnight, they stalled.  Heh.  Okay...   It's possible the first is too far west, and the 2nd is too far south.  mm hm.  But existence of both is in all the majors, and the ens means, to that's a good start on actually getting some some sense of continuity,and with cold of that magnitude that close, and the PNA being really more neutral than that negative, it don't know if the flow is going to bottom out so deep in the SW that these things can break physical law by going through 1050 mb f'n wall.   

That fits better within the 3/1 to 3/15 window that I flagged back in my November diatribe, but it looked as of yesterday that the PNA incline was centered on about 2/24 to 2/26, or thereabouts.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That fits better within the 3/1 to 3/15 window that I flagged back in my November diatribe, but it looked as of yesterday that the PNA incline was centered on about 2/24 to 2/26, or thereabouts.

Yeah...I was just looking over indexes ...

Usually, the 'recorvery' events are on the front slope of the PNA jolts... and this certainly is taking place in this reeeasonably well concerted CPC coverage:

image.png.ea386d7e372c5915de29064e6066dbf0.png

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I don't mind windy days as long as it's 80 -

gusting winds while in the 50's isn't very romantic for me.  It may decimate snow this, and ruin winter delusions of perpetuity head games that... but it's a piece of shit f'ed up day that is annoying and unpleasant, being buffeted around by high winds at half the human body temperature.

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