February 2022 Obs/Disco

[UnitedWx]

52 here in Simsbury already. Any pack that was left yesterday is gone. Keeping an eye on the end of next week

[PhineasC]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yep let's dance the line with the devil. 

I hope all of March is a 30 degree firehose here.

Praying it doesn't get cold for a spell and then go bone dry like last March here.

[Ginx snewx]

@PhineasCThis was near your area on this date in 17. 4 to 5 feet OTG. Special week up there. Wildcat was off the hook

[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Snow to ice to drizzle seems more likely? 

Looks to me like more zr/ sleet with snow NNE

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks to me like more zr/ sleet with snow NNE

I'm shocked you'd side with ice. One day kid, one day.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 hours ago, George001 said:

Could be interesting for the 2nd half of March and possibly even early April. If the pattern is good enough, it can and will snow even late March and early April. Winter is going out with a bang, not like last years sorry excuse for a winter.

There is a warm intrusion taking place above that level, in the 5 hPa. 

I use the thermal metric for early detection/surmise on those - after all, they are referred to as sudden stratospheric warming event.  However, since the planetary wave decaying at high altitude/latitude, is the initial event in the total SSW sequence, it's fine to use that. 

It is not in the 10 hPa, yet, but is modeled to do so by D10 ( from 00z this last night...).  

That sinking motion is absolutely everything in the total SSW consideration. The problem is, it doesn't continue to sink beneath that altitude ( at least ) in the GFS.  

Primer: If it does not propagate downward like this,

there is a high correlation between that failure and Joe B having used it to aggrandize his celebrity, by getting his constituency to go, "ooh, ah, wow..."   

Here were the time-lagged, corresponding AO numbers that took place 30 days after the initial onset of the January event you see there: 

2006  January -0.170;  February -0.156;  March;   -1.604;  April  0.138;  May 0.156   ... I haven't looked this up, down to the discrete weekly numbers, but by these month coarse means provide by CPC, there was a clear and coherent very large negative Arctic Oscillation mode in the early spring of 2006/March.  It may have, in fact, begun earlier toward the end of February that year. 

The Arctic Oscillation can also meander into a negative mode, without this above total planetary scaled event.   So, there are examples in the database where it is both negative(positive) with no apparent downward propagating thermal wave and associated wind reversal taking place.  But in every case where there is a very coherent example, the AO exhibited a marked decline in numerical phase between 20 and 30 days after the initial onset.

So we'll see if that changes in the next week's worth ... 5 and 10 hPa are both showing some intense thermal flashing beginning in 5 .. actually in just 3 days ..but by D6 ... 10 begin to exhibit the warm plume.  This "might" signal a propagation, however, looking ahead into 30 .. 50 and so forth, these sigma levels do not demonstrate ( modeled ) any intrusion taking place, through 360 hours. That means ( based on the GFS ), there is no current prognostic for that all important aspect to take place.    Not sure what the Euro and gang thinks.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

49 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@40/70 Benchmark might get his revenge 

Hopefully I get a good stretch. If not, I'm over it. Really no excuse do get obnoxious about it, either way. I get carried away sometimes.

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm shocked you'd side with ice. One day kid, one day.

I’d prefer snow but it looks icier to me in SNE

[Ginx snewx]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a warm intrusion taking place above that level, in the 5 hPa. 

I use the thermal metric for early detection/surmise on those - after all, they are referred to as sudden stratospheric warming event.  However, since the planetary wave decaying at high altitude/latitude, is the initial event in the total SSW sequence, it's fine to use that. 

It is not in the 10 hPa, yet, but is modeled to do so by D10 ( from 00z this last night...).  

That sinking motion is absolutely everything in the total SSW consideration. The problem is, it doesn't continue to sink beneath that altitude ( at least ) in the GFS.  

Primer: If it does not propagate downward like this,

there is a high correlation between that failure and Joe B having used it to aggrandize his celebrity, by getting his constituency to go, "awe, wow..."   

Here were the time-lagged, corresponding AO numbers that took place 30 days after the initial onset of the January event you see there: 

2006  January -0.170;  February -0.156;  March;   -1.604;  April  0.138;  May 0.156   ... I haven't looked this up, down to the discrete weekly numbers, but by these month coarse means provide by CPC, there was a clear and coherent very large negative Arctic Oscillation mode in the early spring of 2006/March.  It may have, in fact, begun earlier toward the end of February that year. 

The Arctic Oscillation can also meander into a negative mode, without this above total planetary scaled event.   So, there are examples in the database where it is both negative(positive) with no apparent downward propagating thermal wave and associated wind reversal taking place.  But in every case where there is a very coherent example, the AO exhibited a marked decline in numerical phase between 20 and 30 days after the initial onset.

So we'll see if that changes in the next week's worth ... 5 and 10 hPa are both showing some intense thermal flashing beginning in 5 .. actually in just 3 days ..but by D6 ... 10 begin to exhibit the warm plume.  This "might" signal a propagation, however, looking ahead into 30 .. 50 and so forth, these sigma levels do not demonstrate ( modeled ) any intrusion taking place, through 360 hours. That means ( based on the GFS ), there is no current prognostic for that all important aspect to take place.    Not sure what the Euro and gang thinks.

 

 

http://www.pa.op.dlr.de/arctic/ecmwf.php?im=4

[CoastalWx]

I see some warming at 10mb, but so far I don't see anything exciting. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There is a warm intrusion taking place above that level, in the 5 hPa. 

I use the thermal metric for early detection/surmise on those - after all, they are referred to as sudden stratospheric warming event.  However, since the planetary wave decaying at high altitude/latitude, is the initial event in the total SSW sequence, it's fine to use that. 

It is not in the 10 hPa, yet, but is modeled to do so by D10 ( from 00z this last night...).  

That sinking motion is absolutely everything in the total SSW consideration. The problem is, it doesn't continue to sink beneath that altitude ( at least ) in the GFS.  

Primer: If it does not propagate downward like this,

there is a high correlation between that failure and Joe B having used it to aggrandize his celebrity, by getting his constituency to go, "awe, wow..."   

Here were the time-lagged, corresponding AO numbers that took place 30 days after the initial onset of the January event you see there: 

2006  January -0.170;  February -0.156;  March;   -1.604;  April  0.138;  May 0.156   ... I haven't looked this up, down to the discrete weekly numbers, but by these month coarse means provide by CPC, there was a clear and coherent very large negative Arctic Oscillation mode in the early spring of 2006/March.  It may have, in fact, begun earlier toward the end of February that year. 

The Arctic Oscillation can also meander into a negative mode, without this above total planetary scaled event.   So, there are examples in the database where it is both negative(positive) with no apparent downward propagating thermal wave and associated wind reversal taking place.  But in every case where there is a very coherent example, the AO exhibited a marked decline in numerical phase between 20 and 30 days after the initial onset.

So we'll see if that changes in the next week's worth ... 5 and 10 hPa are both showing some intense thermal flashing beginning in 5 .. actually in just 3 days ..but by D6 ... 10 begin to exhibit the warm plume.  This "might" signal a propagation, however, looking ahead into 30 .. 50 and so forth, these sigma levels do not demonstrate ( modeled ) any intrusion taking place, through 360 hours. That means ( based on the GFS ), there is no current prognostic for that all important aspect to take place.    Not sure what the Euro and gang thinks.

 

 

So many people overlook that propagation aspect, which really is the smoking gun in the whole SSW ordeal....I mean, who cares if it gets toasty up at 60K if it doesn't make it down to where the weather synoptically materializes in the troposphere.

As far as this season goes, I am resigned to failure on that aspect of my work this past fall.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see some warming at 10mb, but so far I don't see anything exciting. 

Yea, ninjad.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man long range does look interesting.

I probably should throw it out there, that many of these systems could be messy too. The op runs are hinting at this. I know you don’t forecast based on op runs, but I think it’s a good proxy to what might happen. 

As others have said, I would definitely roll the dice in that look more than a few times, and take my chances. That’s a nice look, with lots of cold around.  Let’s dance. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

As others have said, I would definitely roll the dice in that look more than a few times, and take my chances. That’s a nice look, with lots of cold around.  Let’s dance. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Such a great tune.

[jbenedet]

Lol ASH up to 56 as of 8:50 a.m.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, jbenedet said:

Lol ASH up to 56 as of 8:50 a.m.

80 by 2pm?

[40/70 Benchmark]

48 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

52 here in Simsbury already. Any pack that was left yesterday is gone. Keeping an eye on the end of next week

Already 60 here in Chelsea, and 57 back home in Methuen.

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

80 by 2pm?

Standard take the way under or are  we concerned?

[jbenedet]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

80 by 2pm?

50 by 2 p.m.?
 

Snow cover FTL?

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Already 60 here in Chelsea, and 57 back home in Methuen.

Records under siege. AWT.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Standard take the way under or are  we concerned?

HRRR models winds well. It’s been consistent with those gusts the last 6 runs 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Standard take the way under or are  we concerned?

That is one clown on which I do not care to jack. Knock yourself out, Bret.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Such a great tune.

Good one lol. Always loved that song…from the moment it came out.  Was about 15 when that came out. Fun times. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Standard take the way under or are  we concerned?

It still looked inverted a bit even on the GFS. I dunno...the LLJ surges at the same time temps do aloft. My guess is this will be a lot of 50-60, with some 65mph gusts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would lop about 10mph off of that map across the board....just my guess.

[CoastalWx]

If that LLJ occurred at like 2-4pm, we'd be in big trouble. 

[CoastalWx]

Best ( or close to) srly wind event was the one in Jan 2006. Max jet occurred with breaks of sun, winds went insane.

[jbenedet]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Standard take the way under or are  we concerned?

This to me is highlighting strong thunderstorm risk.

If you see a line of strong thunderstorms marching west to east this evening take those high wind probs way up.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would lop about 10mph off of that map across the board....just my guess.

You’ll likely lose power for a day or two there in Metheun