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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's insane how much time I spend starting in the fall...its easy to drive yourself nuts.

It's a passionate hobby that practically no one understands. 

Stay even keel. Eventually the ship will right itself. Growing up in swri I learned how to handle snow frustration quickly. 

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19 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

More like the FV3, never quite completely right but never quite completely wrong.  Your baseball posts remind me of the classic line from Bob Ueker in Major League. Welcome to the start of the Indians season, Ball one and... the season is over

That’s not true.

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51 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ahh, sorry to hear that.
 

Ya, I’m very much in wintertime mode in mid February.  Heading up north Friday for some big riding, so for me this is the height of the season.    I’d love to come home mid next week, and have things evolving in a wintry way as we head toward the end of the week.  That would be great after returning from a big sledding trip.  But that’s just me. 

Yeah I hear ya. Like I said, usually I’m still in winter mode. I mean it’s still winter. Just not feeling it. Not even frustration really, January was good here. 

37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Yea ok

Hope you’re right lol

I’m not even really punting. I’m just kinda out of it. 

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I'm a new lurker here (is that a thing?).  I have two interests - storms and severe clear.  I like amateur astronomy and I like digging out.  If we could have deep snow on full moons, and calm jets on new moons, I'd be very happy!  Just a note to say thanks to all of you for informative input, regardless of the outcome!

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, it's insane how much time I spend starting in the fall...its easy to drive yourself nuts.

I’m passionate about everything that I invest time and energy on. I’m not wired to just get it done and be average. I want to be the best at it…but that also leads to obsession at times, especially when it doesn’t go my way. I’ve learned to take it more in stride though and accept less desirable outcomes. And this hobby is especially flush with those and considering we have zero control over it anyway…I can easily let go unlike some of my other hobbies.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

We’ll to be fair…when you’re in the bullseye of a huge blizzard…it’s much easier to be optimistic afterwards.  And also, one should be satiated after experiencing such an event.  
 

But I agree, it’s is much nicer than the constant whining and mehing all the time. 
 

Hopefully the effects are long lasting….? 

Oh don’t worry, short memory. I’ll be back to normal next November, book it.

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34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’m passionate about everything that I invest time and energy on. I’m not wired to just get it done and be average. I want to be the best at it…but that also leads to obsession at times, especially when it doesn’t go my way. I’ve learned to take it more in stride though and accept less desirable outcomes. And this hobby is especially flush with those and considering we have zero control over it anyway…I can easily let go unlike some of my other hobbies.

Yea, I can tell you and I are a a lot alike from the baseball league lol

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.66b65bc1a46563a004dd5c9faf51d69f.pngCould be interesting for the 2nd half of March and possibly even early April. If the pattern is good enough, it can and will snow even late March and early April. Winter is going out with a bang, not like last years sorry excuse for a winter.

Ya know George, I have to say... Many people thought you were over hyping storm events ( myself included ), but you've done pretty darn well with the end results ( and never wavered much at all. ). With that said, I AM paying attention to what you say about the upcoming pattern change for the east. Kudos to you kiddo!

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23 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ya know George, I have to say... Many people thought you were over hyping storm events ( myself included ), but you've done pretty darn well with the end results ( and never wavered much at all. ). With that said, I AM paying attention to what you say about the upcoming pattern change for the east. Kudos to you kiddo!

Thanks, I appreciate the support. I have definitely had my share of busts, but feel like I am learning a lot from the mets and experienced posters here. I definitely still have a long way to go, and will continue to learn and improve. I have made some significant adjustments to how I analyze the models this winter, and will keep making adjustments as I learn. I have a post coming up about the late Feb-early March period. The mid March to early April period, I’ve been keeping a close eye on the models over the past few days and like what I see. It’s still early for that though, and would like to see the signal for a polar vortex weakening to move up in time and strengthen on the guidance over the next couple of weeks. I’m thinking even if the polar vortex stuff doesn’t pan out, we are going to get something nice in the first half. If it does pan out, I’m thinking we could have things really get wild with multiple big events such as March 2018, Jan 2011, or even a redux of this January. We need a lot to go right for something like that to happen, so I’m going to pump the breaks a bit on forecasting something like that for now. Either way, I’m just happy that we likely aren’t getting shut out like it appeared week ago.

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