A Moonlit Sky Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Wind is great. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's annoying and unpleasant outside right now here in Ayer. There's just enough high clouds to dim the sun to a glow and not really warm feeling. Meanwhile, it's windy. So 42 may as well be 24 ... Helluva way to kick off a warm spell. heh anyway, not surprised. It didn't look "nice" out in the charts scoping this prefrontal environment. It looked to windy then. Agreed 100%….not very nice out there at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: thing of beauty Wow that’s quite the merideonal flow….hopefully that can ignite something for us? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Wow that’s quite the merideonal flow….hopefully that can ignite something for us? I would be surprised if there wasn't a significant overrunning/coastal storm in the E US with that waveguide... suppression quite far S could be a risk though. it's happened before in these kinds of setups where even DC cashes in 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would be surprised if there wasn't a significant overrunning/coastal storm in the E US with that waveguide... suppression quite far S could be a risk though. it's happened before in these kinds of setups where even DC cashes in Fits the season…DC/mid Atlantic cashing in. Oh boy…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would be surprised if there wasn't a significant overrunning/coastal storm in the E US with that waveguide... suppression quite far S could be a risk though. it's happened before in these kinds of setups where even DC cashes in I think the PV would have to drop really far to the south for that, which would be difficult given how potent it is right now....this is entirely Pacific driven. I don't see this as a suppression issue for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Fits the season…DC/mid Atlantic cashing in. Oh boy…. Doubt it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the PV would have to drop really far to the south for that, which would be difficult given how potent it is right now....this is entirely Pacific driven. I don't see this as a suppression issue for SNE. I don't think it would be an issue, per se, but it would not shock me to see a beefy system slam DC as the cold press strengthens. I think this pattern favors pretty much all of the E US that split flow is a nice asset as well... ups the phasing possibilities 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: I don't think it would be an issue, per se, but it would not shock me to see a beefy system slam DC as the cold press strengthens. I think this pattern favors pretty much all of the E US This I agree with.....but I do not envision a PD 1, Feb 2010 or Jan 2016 deal, where it gets shunted south of us. Believe me, the way that this winter has gone for me, I would call for that at least excuse imaginable...but I just do not see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I actually did favor the Pacific becoming favorable again in early March, but like I said, the big SSW attributable blocking isn't materializing....from early last Novie: March 2022 Outlook March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011 The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically. Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement. YES. Agree.....I am actually glad that the blocking has not materialized, or we may have more of an issue up here. 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I don't think it would be an issue, per se, but it would not shock me to see a beefy system slam DC as the cold press strengthens. I think this pattern favors pretty much all of the E US that split flow is a nice asset as well... ups the phasing possibilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Interesting . Some shingles blew off my garage roof from the last wind storm we had so inland can have the wind this around lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Interesting . Some shingles blew off my garage roof from the last wind storm we had so inland can have the wind this around lol WTTTE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Hope it's right 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Hope it's right Yeah all of us here do 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/02/why-coming-thaw-does-not-portend-end-of.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Hope it's right gas up the genny? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2022/02/why-coming-thaw-does-not-portend-end-of.html I'm hoping for a 2018 finish....though the pattern isn't really 2018....more 1993 than 2018. Hopefully it doesn't end up like Mar 2015, though my guess is we'd do better in that pattern if we rolled the dice again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 DT on board for winter to return a big way at the end of this month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I’m surprised how breezy it is already here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: DT on board for winter to return a big way at the end of this month. Time to install. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm hoping for a 2018 finish....though the pattern isn't really 2018....more 1993 than 2018. Hopefully it doesn't end up like Mar 2015, though my guess is we'd do better in that pattern if we rolled the dice again. What's wrong with 93? Just a little more East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: DT on board for winter to return a big way at the end of this month. Great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 21 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: What's wrong with 93? Just a little more East. I didn’t say anything was wrong with 1993. That march is the snowiest on record for both ORH and BOS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 There’s this impression that PHL/DC/BWI/RIC has been slammed. To date: PHL: 12.5”. 25% below normal DCA: 12.3”. 25% above normal BWI: 14” Less than an inch above normal RIC: 4.3”. 35% below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: There’s this impression that PHL/DC/BWI/RIC has been slammed. To date: PHL: 12.5”. 25% below normal DCA: 12.3”. 25% above normal BWI: 14” Less than an inch above normal RIC: 4.3”. 35% below normal It’s Delaware /MD shore/ Jersey shore to BOS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm hoping for a 2018 finish....though the pattern isn't really 2018....more 1993 than 2018. Hopefully it doesn't end up like Mar 2015, though my guess is we'd do better in that pattern if we rolled the dice again. Yea, I agree. That is from my outlook back in November....the SSW/blocking didn't work out, but sensible result could still be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I didn’t say anything was wrong with 1993. That march is the snowiest on record for both ORH and BOS. Yea, I said earlier...with that PAC look, not sure we would want an NAO block this far north. I mean, I guess we could still get porked by a stray lobe, but its tougher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: There’s this impression that PHL/DC/BWI/RIC has been slammed. To date: PHL: 12.5”. 25% below normal DCA: 12.3”. 25% above normal BWI: 14” Less than an inch above normal RIC: 4.3”. 35% below normal It's because the area got a few consecutive storms that brought snow... But I am betting some parts of Virginia are well about normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 24 minutes ago, weathafella said: There’s this impression that PHL/DC/BWI/RIC has been slammed. To date: PHL: 12.5”. 25% below normal DCA: 12.3”. 25% above normal BWI: 14” Less than an inch above normal RIC: 4.3”. 35% below normal Not slammed, but a decent winter considering la nina. Hit all of my ranges down there, except for Philly....still time, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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