February 2022 Obs/Disco

[MJO812]

 

[Typhoon Tip]

An impressive array of indicators unfolding as of late, that's for sure.  Some of them are the traditional methods, but some are less than very easy to describe.  More "abstract" interpolation, but they are all pointed in the same direction. 

Short: I would not count on the Euro's warm up next week (132 -168 hr ~ ). In fact, I raise possibly at this point that whole warm up is already gone - perhaps we're just in wait of seeing it physically manifest on the actual model depictions as they grudgingly capitulate. 

Longer: Discretely, the PNA correcting upward has not been linear. It's log over the last three nights with apparent acceleration. As of last night, the numerical layouts over at CPC have 2/3rd of the members with what would almost have to be a prelude to whopper correction event over eastern N/A for D10 - yeah...a bit sooner than we surmised yesterday.  

Why do I think so?   More abstractly, trends originating from the different scope/dimentions.  That gets into more personal speculative methods so just leave it at that... I tell you what, I don't believe the emergence of coherent -EPO, being led by quasi -EPO-like cold loading happening as a presage physical circumstance, is a less than meaningful coincidence.  The hemisphere may have been morphing before our very cycle awareness.

Check out the overnight GFS/GGEM with 1050 to amost 1060 mb high pressure parked over mid Quebec province?   zomb!   Euro's stacked more than 1040 mb along similar transit timing and position, yet this latter model shows less inhibition placing it's sfc boundary ( mean ) from BUF-N VT-ME  ...uh,strikes me as vulnerable to a S correction - the fact that we are talking beyond 144 hours, notwithsanding.  Despite the verification scores and/or reputation earned, the GGEM is unfortunately a very possible layout, and that solution is probably ice when then adding to it, typical BL aspects at this sort of time lead.   So you have ALB in an ice storm, and ALB in a 70F ... in the operational variance.  

It's not impossible that we have a large scale (unsure of amplitude) ice/mix ordeal setting up from the Lakes to southern Onatrio to NNE spanning a couple days worth next week, with option S, in spite of the erstwhile expectation for huge warm up.  I am also curious about a bigger, powerful type cyclogenesis somewhere in the E...  perhaps 3 ... 4 days later.

 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

An impressive array of indicators unfolding as of late, that's for sure.  Some of them are the traditional methods, but some are less than very easy to describe.  More "abstract" interpolation, but they are all pointed in the same direction. 

Short: I would not count on the Euro's warm up next week (132 -168 hr ~ ). In fact, I raise possibly at this point that whole warm up is already gone - perhaps we're just in wait of seeing it physically manifest on the actual model depictions as the grudgingly capitulate. 

Longer: Discretely, the PNA correcting upward has not been linear. It's log over the last three nights with apparent acceleration. As of last night, the numerical layouts over at CPC have 2/3rd of the members with what would almost have to be a prelude to whopper correction event over eastern N/A for D10 - yeah...a bit sooner than we surmised yesterday.  

Why do I think so?   More abstractly, trends originating from the different scope/dimentions.  That gets into more personal speculative methods so just leave it at that... I tell you what, I don't believe the emergence of coherent -EPO, being led by quasi -EPO-like cold loading happening as a presage physical circumstance, is an less than meaningful.  The hemisphere may have been morphing before our very cycle awareness.

Check out the overnight GFS/GGEM with 1050 to amost 1060 mb high pressure parked over mid Quebec province?   zomb!   Euro's stacked more than 1040 mb along similar transit timing and position, yet this latter model shows less inhibition placing it's sfc boundary ( mean ) from BUF-N VT-ME  ...uh,strikes me as vulnerable to a S correction - the fact that we are talking beyond 144 hours, notwithsanding.  Despite the verification scores and/or reputation earned, the GGEM is unfortunately a very possible layout, and that solution is probably ice when then adding to it, typical BL aspects at this sort of time lead.   So you have ALB in an ice storm, and ALB in a 70F ... in the operational variance.  

 

I agree that next week is definitely vulnerable to a southward push of the boundary....moreso than this week was. The meridional flow out of the northwest territories/Yukon is much more pronounced next week than this week is, so there is definitely room to see model guidance push the sfc boundary further south. It's already pushed south a decent amount from progs 2 days ago.....we'll have to see if that continues.

There;s actually some weak Greenland ridging too early next week....it's not the driver, but it doesn't hurt. But you can see how much the flow out of NW Canada will want to press arctic cold south

 

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

March 2015 sucked ass for everyone not within 20 miles of the coast. Still, at least if it was going to be cold with little new snowfall, we had a monster pack to make it look nice. Mar 2014 was way worse....frigid but our pack got mostly wiped out by the 3/13/14 storm which was great for NNE.

I did go up to Sunday River that month in 2014 and it was epic.

March 14 one of my favorite SR trips. We just missed you guys by a day. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I actually did favor the Pacific becoming favorable again in early March, but like I said, the big SSW attributable blocking isn't materializing....from early last Novie:

March 2022 Outlook

 

March Analogs: 1956 (x2), 1984, 1996, 2006 (x2), 2001 (x3), 2018 (x2), 1975, 2011

 

The first half of March should be blocky with an improving Pacific. The month should feature both Miller A & B cyclogenesis, as there are signs that the subtropical jet may enter the scene in addition to the active northern stream. This could be a very volatile set up with immense storm potential should the two streams phase. There is a relatively strong chance of a KU magnitude event between March 1st and 15th. The failure risk is that the SSW does not materialize, which could alter the forecast dramatically.

Monthly departures anywhere from 1-3 degrees below average with the coldest across the interior and above average snowfall from the mid atlantic into New England. This should be a very active east coast pattern rivaling that of March 2018 and 2001, though with perhaps more southern stream involvement.

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I agree that next week is definitely vulnerable to a southward push of the boundary....moreso than this week was. The meridional flow out of the northwest territories/Yukon is much more pronounced next week than this week is, so there is definitely room to see model guidance push the sfc boundary further south. It's already pushed south a decent amount from progs 2 days ago.....we'll have to see if that continues.

There;s actually some weak Greenland ridging too early next week....it's not the driver, but it doesn't hurt. But you can see how much the flow out of NW Canada will want to press arctic cold south

....

 

It all counts ... absolutely.      See, it's part of the 'abstract' stuff I was hinting about.   I mean, these little blockings?  Those and the eventual onset of the coherent -EPO, all of it is like "prone to occur" in the hemispheric physical "foam" if you will. But prior to the actual  materialization of them - the given model run is probably less important than the fact that it keeps happening - because the latter signals that it's really coming, matter of when.  

I've referred to this in passing turn of phrase as "super synoptic" signaling.  Gets into fuzzy logic... 

Anyway, my experience in the past is that when this happens, the change then gets underway and it pays off faster rather than later.  I don't think we are waiting until yesterday's day 11 through 15 to see activity unfold. 

Regarding the other bold... this week - I suggested back then - had a chance to correct S, because we had already seen a similar one do so just 10 days prior... mm, the footprint pattern isn't hugely different to assume that wouldn't redux.  But I agree, this is a different kitten altogether, with these other conceptual aspects pushing against the levee of that front.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It all counts ... absolutely.      See, it's part of the 'abstract' stuff I was hinting about.   I mean, these little blockings?  Those and the eventual onset of the coherent -EPO, all of it is like "prone to occur" in the hemispheric physical "foam" if you will.   The materialization of them in the given model run is probably less important than the fact that it keeps happening - because the latter signals that it's really coming, matter of when.  

I've referred to this in passing turn of phrase as "super synoptic" signaling.  Gets into fuzzy logic... 

Anyway, my experience in the past is that when this happens, the change then gets underway and it pays off faster rather than later.  I don't think we are waiting until yesterday's day 11 through 15 to see activity unfold. 

Regarding the other bold... this week - I suggested back then - had a chance to correct S, because we had already seen a similar one do so just 10 days prior... mm, the footprint pattern isn't hugely different to assume that wouldn't redux.  But I agree, this is a different kitten altogether, with these other conceptual aspects pushing against the levee of that front.

John, what are your thoughts on the SSW failure? I suspect the sun activity uptick had an influence there. I was pretty confident we would see a SSW judging from my analogs, but clearly going to be  a miss.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

March 14 one of my favorite SR trips. We just missed you guys by a day. 

 

 

 

 

Yeah I found about 60" on the level up around the top of North Peak (just below in the woods)...probably was even higher in the woods of Oz/Aurora/Jordan. Even down at the base most spots had  over 40".

 

This was me actually at the old Evergreen Valley Inn about 25 minutes south of SR on that same trip. Even there in Stoneham, you can see it was about 3 feet on the level. Maybe a bit more in spots. There were a million snow mobilers there that year (you can even see part of a snow mobile in the foreground)

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I found about 60" on the level up around the top of North Peak (just below in the woods)...probably was even higher in the woods of Oz/Aurora/Jordan. Even down at the base most spots had  over 40".

 

This was me actually at the old Evergreen Valley Inn about 25 minutes south of SR on that same trip. Even there in Stoneham, you can see it was about 3 feet on the level. Maybe a bit more in spots. There were a million snow mobilers there that year (you can even see part of a snow mobile in the foreground)

 

 

What a sicko....I see the little sparkle in your eyes lol

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been trying to convince him all season that March wasn't going to Morch.

I don’t think the whole month looks wintry. There looks like a 2 week window first half of month to me.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I found about 60" on the level up around the top of North Peak (just below in the woods)...probably was even higher in the woods of Oz/Aurora/Jordan. Even down at the base most spots had  over 40".

 

This was me actually at the old Evergreen Valley Inn about 25 minutes south of SR on that same trip. Even there in Stoneham, you can see it was about 3 feet on the level. Maybe a bit more in spots. There were a million snow mobilers there that year (you can even see part of a snow mobile in the foreground)

 

 

There’s the Mighty Mac jacket with the T bar zipper! I knew it was still alive and well

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t think the whole month looks wintry. There looks like a 2 week window first half of month to me.

I agree. This was the next sentence:

The pattern may rapidly break down later in the month with an early spring to reward beleaguered residents of the northeast if the vortex does indeed weaken a bit earlier than the Euro guidance suggests, as forecast by Eastern Mass Weather.

Obviously the PV isn't going to play the crucial role that I thought it would, but I could still see a snap back to warmth later in the month.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

7" more right now then all of last year, Still running below normal.

Thru today we're 7.6" below ytd average.  Only need another 2.3" to pass 20-21, however.   (A very low bar.)   Chilly -12 this morning, might've gone for 20 had the cirrus not moved in.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Thru today we're 7.6" below ytd average.  Only need another 2.3" to pass 20-21, however.   (A very low bar.)   Chilly -12 this morning, might've gone for 20 had the cirrus not moved in.

Very low bar last year, Still need quite a bit of work to get to seasonal avg, Not sure its going to be doable though, -3.2°F was the low here but we've rebounded to 25°F already today.

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Very low bar last year, Still need quite a bit of work to get to seasonal avg, Not sure its going to be doable though, -3.2°F was the low here but we've rebounded to 25°F already today.

What is your average? 70-75"?

Very doable...

[MJO812]

Gfs is quicker with the cold air coming back next week

[Damage In Tolland]

HRRR rips roofs off in places tomorrow night 

[brooklynwx99]

So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the start of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent.

However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low:

So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP:

This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain:

I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking:

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

[dryslot]

35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What is your average? 70-75"?

Very doable...

76", Its doable, But we need another 24"

[tamarack]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

76", Its doable, But we need another 24"

89" here, would need another 39".  Only 5 of 23 snow seasons have met that goal here.

[ORH_wxman]

17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

So, there has been a lot of speculation as to why the pattern for the beginning of March has taken such a turn since just last week. I was pretty much in agreement with much of the meteorological community that the start of March would be quite warm as the pattern would be breaking down. It appeared that the tropical forcing would move into unfavorable areas of the Pacific for E US winter weather, like towards the Maritime Continent.

However, that tropical forcing has become less and less of a factor in the pattern, as the amplitude of the wave looks quite low:

 

So, instead, there must be another pattern driver that's led to such a dramatic change in the NH waveguide. It looks like the culprit is an extratropical cyclone over the W Pacific near Japan. It will develop by the beginning of next week, and it looks to become a highly anomalous cyclone, reaching over 4 sigma below normal SLP:

 

This cyclone will induce an extension of the Pacific jet and anticyclonic wave breaking, which leads to the anomalous ridging over the EPO domain:

 

I don't think that this is a head fake, and there is the potential for a significant high-latitude blocking event. It hinges on the strength of the cyclone in the Pacific, but there is tremendous agreement between models and their ensembles, so I do think that it's a legitimate pattern driver. Something similar to this also happened with Nuri at the end of October 2014, which was also a highly anomalous N Pacific cyclone. Nuri had a tremendous impact on the pattern in November 2014 with regards to N Pacific blocking:

 

Therefore, I do believe that the first couple (or perhaps few?) weeks of March hold elevated potential for a significant late-winter event. Time will tell, but things should start to ramp up once heading into the start of the month.

Yeah and this is a good reason to be skeptical of the MJO RMM charts too (Scott- coastal_wx has often made this point)....they are often incorrect anyway, but even when they technically are correct, they may not be driving the pattern. It was a while back, but I also remember something similar happening in 2013 as well...everyone was going full blown torch for late Feb 2013 into March because of tropical forcing forecasts and those ended up being a huge bust.

 

That type of anomalous cyclone you showed can also transfer a good amount heat into the upper troposphere of the arctic, so that will only help fuel any EPO blocking.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

37F.    That’s up 30° since sunrise.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is quicker with the cold air coming back next week

Big winter incoming.

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah and this is a good reason to be skeptical of the MJO RMM charts too (Scott- coastal_wx has often made this point)....they are often incorrect anyway, but even when they technically are correct, they may not be driving the pattern. It was a while back, but I also remember something similar happening in 2013 as well...everyone was going full blown torch for late Feb 2013 into March because of tropical forcing forecasts and those ended up being a huge bust.

 

That type of anomalous cyclone you showed can also transfer a good amount heat into the upper troposphere of the arctic, so that will only help fuel any EPO blocking.

There is definitely a robust signal for an environment in the upper level favorable for convection from maritime continent to dateline. Looks to propagate east, but not sure how close to the dateline. That definitely matters in determining a more dateline ridge, or something closer to the PNA domain. 

 

[Lava Rock]

32.4F. That'll be the last sub 32 for awhile. bye bye pack.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

HRRR rips roofs off in places tomorrow night 

Will you be awake and sober to see yours fly off?

[dryslot]

Don't know if the HRRR will rip some roofs off, But it has ripped a lot of folks off of snow this winter.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Will you be awake and sober to see yours fly off?

More clown maps.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More clown maps.

This time it’s real. SW wind direction roars. Losing some of the ocean influences 

[Typhoon Tip]

I don't doubt Scott's data there ...  I spoke about this a while ago when the RMM first began signaling a right side RMM wave momentum. However, I have a few caveats in tow. 

As CPC's publications noted at the time, the atmospheric circulation mode had uncoupled from the La Nina signal.    I have my own hypothesis about these ENSOs and how and why they have done that a lot in recent decade.   Warm or cool ENSO, both have demonstrated at times, poorer correlative behavior during the heart of the respective cold seasons hosting them. 

I mentioned that aspect last autumn to Ray/ et al in the ENSO thread over in the main forum space ( or perhaps here - can't recall specifically where).  I posited ( and still wonder - ) if the expanding Hadley Cell phenomenon that is documented and scienced as related to the on-going CC, may be tending to supplant the forcing ability of the underlying ENSO. 

The way it works ( in theory -):  HC expanding might go beyond and effectively engulf the the region that would otherwise/previously be the forcing interface with the westerlies. Once that happens, it does not force as readily... It's pretty simple: the expansion disconnects the ENSO forcing from R-wave dispersion. 

In any case, something is causing these uncoupled circulation modes. Regardless of what the universal cause is, that trend had me quite suspicious, if not suspecting, a similar observation to take place again this winter - here we are.  The blizzard and the events prior to it, they were all formulated during a poorer La Nina coupled state. 

That said...  10 days ago we were looking at robust RMM prognostic for wave strength in the GFS cluster ( it should be noted that the ECMWF was never as robust as the GFS/GEFs were ).   Risking hypocrisy,  I went ahead and agreed with CPC at the time. Because the right-side RMM wave spaces are correlated well with the La Nina so well, that presence of momentum passing through might be enough constructive interference to trigger the circulation mode to re-couple.  "IF" so... that would put an end to the cold loading... end to colder profile storm chances... effectively, ending winter do to it happening in mid to late February on top of an already stressing, CC-related early spring tendency - also a recurrent yearly observation.  

If the MJO wave is weakening ... which that present diagram now indicates ( new ), that changes that map a little ( imm abv paragraph).  That doesn't offer quite as much constructive interference..