powderfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 That EURO run is what we all love to see though for sure. Hot cutter late week. Then arctic cold over the weekend. Then hot cutter again by day 9-10. What a sequence. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 minutes ago, powderfreak said: 70F in February would be funny to be honest. If it's not going to snow, might as well go for broke. oH believe me ... and it's a repeating climate signal at this point. ENSO cool/warm aside... didn't matter. We've put up 70 to 80 episodes in Feb and Mar during an unsettling number of those months spanning that last 15 years, to much to be ignored - though given the bias in here, it tends to be LOL. No, but I take looks like that seriously these days, at this time of year, because the elephant in the room also added to that. We're on the fence with index/indicators... Seems every couple run cycles the modeling veneer finishes warm, then cool...oscillatory error. We know whatever transpires over the next 2 weeks of the month, it's not going to be 'on the fence' so one way or the other will likely win. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 hours ago, snowfan said: I’m supposed to be snowmobiling in the whites next weekend. How concerned should I be? Pretty concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, powderfreak said: That EURO run is what we all love to see though for sure. Hot cutter late week. Then arctic cold over the weekend. Then hot cutter again by day 9-10. What a sequence. It seems like this winter none of these events drop upslope after they pass either. So you can't even get the 3" of fluff to cover the ground as the arctic air moves back in. That hasn't really happened much this winter at all after any of the events so far. A little spotty stuff here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It seems like this winter none of these events drop upslope after they pass either. So you can't even get the 3" of fluff to cover the ground as the arctic air moves back in. That hasn't really happened much this winter at all after any of the events so far. A little spotty stuff here and there. Yeah it’s been a very light upslope season on the whole. Usually there are a couple distinct events or like 4-8” upslope after a cutter… we can survive a winter on that sometimes ha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: That EURO run is what we all love to see though for sure. Hot cutter late week. Then arctic cold over the weekend. Then hot cutter again by day 9-10. What a sequence. After today winter precip is done for my area. Sucks to see those above normal temps up north though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 17 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Yeah it’s been a very light upslope season on the whole. Usually there are a couple distinct events or like 4-8” upslope after a cutter… we can survive a winter on that sometimes ha. Hopefully the cutters dampen out a bit and we can limp into late month for a turnaround. Would be nice to build a pack back up to ensure a decent spring season with something other than just a handful of manmade groomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Not gonna believe a warm up until we actually see it. The majority of day 10 torches have vanished just as many times as the day 10 blizzards this season since the pattern switch in early January. Sure eventually it will happen but there’s too much flip flopping to believe anything verbatim at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Not gonna believe a warm up until we actually see it. The majority of day 10 torches have vanished just as many times as the day 10 blizzards this season since the pattern switch in early January. Sure eventually it will happen but there’s too much flip flopping to believe anything verbatim at the moment. What about the last 3 days furnace? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I understand that this is a 378hr operational GFS map that has no true meaning, but I think it is fascinating to see a discharge of arctic air from the heart of Greenland into our neck of the woods. Exotic stuff: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Is 49/53/57 a furnace? Above normal def. I’m more referring to the 70 degree weather previously mentioned… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Not gonna believe a warm up until we actually see it. The majority of day 10 torches have vanished just as many times as the day 10 blizzards this season since the pattern switch in early January. Sure eventually it will happen but there’s too much flip flopping to believe anything verbatim at the moment.I like that attitude. Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Right - I was mentioning this earlier ... Almost don't have to look at the index numerology with those occasional -30C 850 mb cold plumes that keep loading over the Canadian Shield, they get there by EPO deposition ( neg phase)... Question is whether that influence into the mid latitudes and below over the CONUS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 hours ago, wx2fish said: I could see atleast one angry post when MHT hits 55F 6+ hours before Tilton. lol…the real anger will start when I’m lagging behind guidance with mixing out. Or when Gene spikes to 50° while I’m still 36°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 4 hours ago, powderfreak said: That EURO run is what we all love to see though for sure. Hot cutter late week. Then arctic cold over the weekend. Then hot cutter again by day 9-10. What a sequence. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Looks like a New Jersey High school yearbook from the 80's 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: This post wins the thread. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LSC97wxnut Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Christ... I can see the ozone being depleted in that photo... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 46 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Funny to see NW Maine border so below normal. The models have hammered that area with digital snow many times but I guess it never worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 13 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Funny to see NW Maine border so below normal. The models have hammered that area with digital snow many times but I guess it never worked out. Toss the low values up there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Toss the low values up there. I’m suspicious of the 37” in the N Berks too. Seems high unless they had some big total in December that I missed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m suspicious of the 37” in the N Berks too. Seems high unless they had some big total in December that I missed. Probably nickle and dime upslope? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Probably nickle and dime upslope? That or isolated jack zone that got lucky a few times? I have been out that way a couple times this winter and the snow cover has not been impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 44 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m suspicious of the 37” in the N Berks too. Seems high unless they had some big total in December that I missed. That is probably pretty close to correct honestly. There were a couple 6-8" events i think. No biggies, but then add in these little nickel and dime uplsope/streamers/etc events that can add up over time as dendrite mentioned. Little stuff that you don't even realize is happening probably where you are. For example I had 3 separate days just this past week of little less than 1" each time. These little dinkers spread out won't make for impressive snowcover, especially with with a few rainers mixed in, but the actual totals will add up. 37" is still pretty low for N Berks mid FEB with not much on horizon either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 hour ago, dendrite said: Toss the low values up there. NOHRSC use color code Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I’m suspicious of the 37” in the N Berks too. Seems high unless they had some big total in December that I missed. Numbers are from stations Coops NWS etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Numbers are from stations Coops NWS etc. That’s what I figured but the 61” I’ve me seems a little high. I think I have 53” but I’m probably not the most diligent measurer. 8” seems like a lot for me to have missed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Not the most accurate map Buffalo is at 74.9" and Rochester at 62.8". That shows KBUF NWS recording station at 58". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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