Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

70F in February would be funny to be honest.  If it's not going to snow, might as well go for broke.

oH believe me ... and it's a repeating climate signal at this point.    ENSO cool/warm aside... didn't matter.  We've put up 70 to 80 episodes in Feb and Mar during an unsettling number of those months spanning that last 15 years, to much to be ignored - though given the bias in here, it tends to be LOL.   No, but I take looks like that seriously these days, at this time of year, because the elephant in the room also added to that. 

We're on the fence with index/indicators...  Seems every couple run cycles the modeling veneer finishes warm, then cool...oscillatory error.  We know whatever transpires over the next 2 weeks of the month, it's not going to be 'on the fence' so one way or the other will likely win.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That EURO run is what we all love to see though for sure.

Hot cutter late week.  Then arctic cold over the weekend.  Then hot cutter again by day 9-10.

What a sequence.

 

 

It seems like this winter none of these events drop upslope after they pass either. So you can't even get the 3" of fluff to cover the ground as the arctic air moves back in. That hasn't really happened much this winter at all after any of the events so far. A little spotty stuff here and there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It seems like this winter none of these events drop upslope after they pass either. So you can't even get the 3" of fluff to cover the ground as the arctic air moves back in. That hasn't really happened much this winter at all after any of the events so far. A little spotty stuff here and there.

Yeah it’s been a very light upslope season on the whole.  Usually there are a couple distinct events or like 4-8” upslope after a cutter… we can survive a winter on that sometimes ha.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

That EURO run is what we all love to see though for sure.

Hot cutter late week.  Then arctic cold over the weekend.  Then hot cutter again by day 9-10.

What a sequence.

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-t850-5153200.thumb.png.1641fc8339378dd2f92f3b390c55217b.png

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-t850-5336800.thumb.png.292b3ee784ef39461273bbfe08c5b313.png

ecmwf-deterministic-neng-t850-5596000.thumb.png.d121fc76f910ec5060e73dfcbc6fc075.png

 

After today winter precip is done for my area.  Sucks to see those above normal temps up north though

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s been a very light upslope season on the whole.  Usually there are a couple distinct events or like 4-8” upslope after a cutter… we can survive a winter on that sometimes ha.

Hopefully the cutters dampen out a bit and we can limp into late month for a turnaround. Would be nice to build a pack back up to ensure a decent spring season with something other than just a handful of manmade groomers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Not gonna believe a warm up until we actually see it. The majority of day 10 torches have vanished just as many times as the day 10 blizzards this season since the pattern switch in early January. Sure eventually it will happen but there’s too much flip flopping to believe anything verbatim at the moment.

What about the last 3 days furnace?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not gonna believe a warm up until we actually see it. The majority of day 10 torches have vanished just as many times as the day 10 blizzards this season since the pattern switch in early January. Sure eventually it will happen but there’s too much flip flopping to believe anything verbatim at the moment.
I like that attitude.

Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

received_473045487654199.jpeg

Right - I was mentioning this earlier ...  Almost don't have to look at the index numerology with those occasional -30C 850 mb cold plumes that keep loading over the Canadian Shield, they get there by EPO deposition ( neg phase)...   Question is whether that influence into the mid latitudes and below over the CONUS. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m suspicious of the 37” in the N Berks too.   Seems high unless they had some big total in December that I missed. 

That is probably pretty close to correct honestly. There were a couple 6-8" events i think. No biggies, but then add in these little nickel and dime uplsope/streamers/etc events that can add up over time as dendrite mentioned.  Little stuff that you don't even realize is happening probably where you are. For example I had 3 separate days just this past week of little less than 1" each time.  These little dinkers spread out won't make for impressive snowcover, especially with with a few rainers mixed in, but the actual totals will add up. 37" is still pretty low for N Berks mid FEB with not much on horizon either. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...