February 2022 Obs/Disco

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, there is less to track in a CJ event....all of those lines were near Bermuda.

That was more a deformation deal in the blizzard, but you know what I mean. Just enjoy the dam snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Don't think of it as "a heat guy" - ....

I think what Brian's trying for in spirit there, is that you will start to feel less uncomfortable at 78 ... then it's 82 ... ..87, etc.  eventually 90.   

Not that I matter - but for me ... 90/48 (maybe 52) with puffy cu offering occasional two minute shade intervals, is rather soothing.  Oh, I wouldn't wanna don my running kicks and bang out a 10K in that, no -but... puttsing around the yard and doing chores... or strolling with the lady friend around the landscape, day at the beach.. it's fine.  The gestation of life will put you there eventually... 

It's funny.. I was talking to some kid at the gym that effortlessly cycles through 20 rep chin ups with the fluid motion of an elevator, telling him 'wait 'till ur my age'.  He said, "I'll never lose this..." - I just grinned a little.    Everyone when they are young, says, "I'll never -" ... but no one since our species crawled out of primordial states died feeling hot. They don't call it the cold shroud for nothing -

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...you already want to end winter early when it goes to hell in Feb/Mar so you may be one of those types that likes summer heat more as you get older and your body changes. I used to think like you, but then there's a year that comes where suddenly 90F kinda feels nice and 30F feels intolerable.

I love the warmth and dews. I can be comfy at home when I need to, but it's not like I'm working outside in the summer paving driveways either. 

I hated it up to a few years ago. Now with the kids, they enjoy all things water, so bring the torch. It doesn't bother me like it used to.

[snowman19]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that isn't winter going away...that is winter lingering....too bad. I thought we would get that about a month earlier, a la 2018.

According to Dr. Lee, it’s not even a true SSWE being shown in mid-March, the models actually keep it strong into late March: 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

Dews are simply the best. And it’s not even arguable. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we could still get one...but I'm just surprised we haven't had them already this season. As I discussed with Ray earlier, we had a pretty good longwave pattern for them in December, but the -PNA just went a little too extreme on us. Like if that was "merely" -2 sigma instead of like -4 sigma, we probably clean up.

You and Scott and Ray said many times in Dec and Jan "that is a good gradient/overrunning look", and then Jerry would mention Leon, and Jeff start talking about SWFE climo...etc.  You have to wonder if we get some of that Atlantic blocking back and the PNA isn't quite so fierce....

[CoastalWx]

The strat stuff is so easy to predict in near term. I don't need to have a doctorate to know that when I see a clear, concentric vortex surrounded by warmer temps (obeys thermal wind laws) then I know that ain't going anywhere. 

Also, Spring has those final warming events....so is late March or April that unusual for it? 

So much voodoo out there. 

[PWMan]

First car-windows-down day of the season, and I finally cleared the last of the sleet-glacier from my driveway. Life is good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

idk...you already want to end winter early when it goes to hell in Feb/Mar so you may be one of those types that likes summer heat more as you get older and your body changes. I used to think like you, but then there's a year that comes where suddenly 90F kinda feels nice and 30F feels intolerable.

Big difference between not wanting 23 and windy in the absence of snow, and craving 94/71 swampass.

Bottom line is comfort in the absence of entertainment.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You and Scott and Ray said many times in Dec and Jan "that is a good gradient/overrunning look", and then Jerry would mention Leon, and Jeff start talking about SWFE climo...etc.  You have to wonder if we get some of that Atlantic blocking back and the PNA isn't quite so fierce....

ATL blocking looks dead to me....maybe it comes back in March....but I'm not counting on it. That said, we can still get plenty of overrunning events without ATL blocking. Essentially all of 2007-2008 had no blocking and ditto 1993-1994. '93-'94 had a great pacific though...'07-'08 was a little more muddled but we had great timing on so many events to keep the highs to our north.

[mahk_webstah]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the interior is having a sneaky bad year....even a place like ORH who got nearly 15" in the blizzard and even got a pair of 6" events (1/7 mesoband and the 1/17 BGM storm front-ended them) before the blizzard....is taking it on the chin this winter. They are like 12" below normal now on the season and the deficit is only going to grow over the next week.

It is weird because I am only in the low 30s with an average of 70 inches, but it has felt like deep winter up here for close to 2 months.  Many days below 0, and several below -10.   The pack stayed and kept thickening.  It is softening now, but still quite glacial.  Even after tomorrow, I'll still have 10-12 in the woods and full field snow cover I think, and then it will freeze up good again.  So by one measuring a sucky winter, but by others (pack and temp) a very good winter.

[mahk_webstah]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

ATL blocking looks dead to me....maybe it comes back in March....but I'm not counting on it. That said, we can still get plenty of overrunning events without ATL blocking. Essentially all of 2007-2008 had no blocking and ditto 1993-1994. '93-'94 had a great pacific though...'07-'08 was a little more muddled but we had great timing on so many events to keep the highs to our north.

there should be plenty of cold left in canada, and will the vortex totally consolidate or will we get pulses or stretches that give us cold?

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That was more a deformation deal in the blizzard, but you know what I mean. Just enjoy the dam snow. 

That event was not enjoyable at all for me. Nobody wants to be among the more mundane totals in a truly high end event. 18-20" while someone gets 30" is one thing, but 12" in a storm like that just blows.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That event was not enjoyable at all for me. Nobody wants to be among the more mundane totals in a truly high end event.

I get it, but a foot is dam respectable. At least it's not like the whole areas got widespread 2"+ and you missed out. Just a narrow area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I get it, but a foot is dam respectable. At least it's not like the whole areas got widespread 2"+ and you missed out. Just a narrow area.

Most peak depth measurements were like 8-10", with some spots blown to grass blades.....in a blizzard like that? 'Cmon....drop the lipstick and back away from the pig.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The strat stuff is so easy to predict in near term. I don't need to have a doctorate to know that when I see a clear, concentric vortex surrounded by warmer temps (obeys thermal wind laws) then I know that ain't going anywhere. 

Also, Spring has those final warming events....so is late March or April that unusual for it? 

So much voodoo out there. 

Yeah...I'm not overly impressed with that March signal - outlined a bunch of reasons earlier.  A lot of that could be gestational climo norms for Spring.  Once it happens that late, by the time the time-lag catch up to doing anything it's too late - April mangles the R-wave layout and the arctic domain loses it's connection with the mid latitudes.   Ovah!

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hey…is poor folk in the hinterlands only got 6-10” in the “blizzard”.   Some businesses out here rely on snow 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hey…is poor folk in the hinterlands only got 6-10” in the “blizzard”.   Some businesses out here rely on snow 

A real pet peeve of mind are subby zones in those dry, powdery windbag storms......everyone self-sodomizes to wind gusts and minimum central pressure...and you look out your window, and see grass blades on one side of your lawn, and a minimally altered landscape on the other. Its as if mother nature is partaking in a challenge to have all hell break loose in the atmosphere without anyone realizing it within 10 miles of said back yard. And to top it off, there are no precip type dillienations to speak of, and there is no sense tracking a coastal front pinned to the Bourne Bridge....nothing to distract from the sensible dissapointment that ensues.

12/5/03, PD II, Boxing Day & 1/29/22 all fit that bill to me...though the fiest two were less about pressure and wind.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hey…is poor folk in the hinterlands only got 6-10” in the “blizzard”.   Some businesses out here rely on snow 

Meh, just make the snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

According to Dr. Lee, it’s not even a true SSWE being shown in mid-March, the models actually keep it strong into late March: 

 

He's correct .... I do not posses a P.H.D.,  but this corroborates everything I've read and studied since 15 years ago when I first began taking interest in that area of Meteorology.  So take fwiw -

I also have a working hypothesis related to the faster than normal base-line geostrophic wind velocities that we've been observing, all over the winter hemispheres of the planet, a phenomenon that began some 20 years ago and has been a leitmotif with only increasing tendencies ever since.  I call it "slosh back" in the springs... Basically the way it works:  fast flow abandons pretty quickly as March gets under way, due to normal radiative forcing beginning the neutralization of the winter-time gradient... "quickly" in the relative sense, mind you.   As that happens, for a brief transient week or two, there is a tendency for warm deposition into upper latitudes, and we see blocking nodes pop off ... This is probably thesis work level stuff, but just spatially from orbit, it is not theoretically impossible.. it just needs the data and calc to demo how passing from high velocity to a nominal one, could cause mid/u/a height response.   When the normal PV state ( AO mode) of winter weakens from an abnormally strength state, it may trigger a stronger than normal -AO lapse, albeit transient. 

[mahk_webstah]

One of the observations I've made after living up here for more than a dozen years is that it can snow big in a shitty looking pattern.  Unless the pattern is so overwhelmingly bad (was it Dec 2016?), we can get a scooter high, a miller b, some transient blocking...whatever, and end up with a foot of snow.  Many times we get to our average very late in the season.

[weathafella]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Chewables 

Which ones?   Not a more than a few times a year user of those or beer/wine.  Coffee however daily.

[CoastalWx]

Man the anger from the interior is palpable. I may not even log on next winter if it's the outside of 495 crush jobs and avoid the chest thumping and curb stomping that they'll do. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Man ... Sunday's gonna suck prison balls at shiv point 

I mean, yeah yeah ...just enjoy today and tomorrow - I got it..  But MET has FIT and ASH 30 F Sunday afternoon...and with clouds tending along the southern skies, that'll be shade mid day gelid hell compared to what it will be like tomorrow. 

By the way, I did not check MOS 'products leading today - oops. meant to do that... I'm curious how they did in this, because this is just an exquisite set up to bust the MOS too cool.

[Cold Miser]

Need a pick me up.

Any long range clowns that show snow coming for SNE would be greatly appreciated...Even if only for the lolz.

Thanks again for your cooperation.

[Lava Rock]

37 minutes ago, PWMan said:

First car-windows-down day of the season, and I finally cleared the last of the sleet-glacier from my driveway. Life is good.

thye'll be teeing off at riverside before too long

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the anger from the interior is palpable. I may not even log on next winter if it's the outside of 495 crush jobs and avoid the chest thumping and curb stomping that they'll do. 

You would think at some a January 2003 pattern would present itself, but who knows....I'm sick of saying it headed into every season like a broken record.

[Great Snow 1717]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That event was not enjoyable at all for me. Nobody wants to be among the more mundane totals in a truly high end event. 18-20" while someone gets 30" is one thing, but 12" in a storm like that just blows.

 

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That event was not enjoyable at all for me. Nobody wants to be among the more mundane totals in a truly high end event. 18-20" while someone gets 30" is one thing, but 12" in a storm like that just blows.

I enjoyed the storm. It verified as a blizzard for our area.  

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You would think at some a January 2003 pattern would present itself, but who knows....I'm sick of saying it headed into every season like a broken record.

It will. Funny I was thinking about that back in December. What a tough pill to swallow that was. At least we made up ground that year. 

[Torch Tiger]

16 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Need a pick me up.

Any long range clowns that show snow coming for SNE would be greatly appreciated...Even if only for the lolz.

Thanks again for your cooperation.