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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I just happened to scroll through clown range on the GFS today....and this event caught my eye not because it's remotely going to happen, but because it's the type of event I would have expected more of this season but we just haven't seen them. We usually have at least 1 or 2 during a La Nina. Even cruddy La Ninas usually feature one.


Can't remember the last time we had a solid front end thump on a nice SWFE...maybe 2/12/19.

 

image.png.e6841ae8e09496cddfe035c7876fccd6.png

 

 

well Scott did mention an "overrunning look"

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1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

well Scott did mention an "overrunning look"

Yeah we could still get one...but I'm just surprised we haven't had them already this season. As I discussed with Ray earlier, we had a pretty good longwave pattern for them in December, but the -PNA just went a little too extreme on us. Like if that was "merely" -2 sigma instead of like -4 sigma, we probably clean up.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we could still get one...but I'm just surprised we haven't had them already this season. As I discussed with Ray earlier, we had a pretty good longwave pattern for them in December, but the -PNA just went a little too extreme on us. Like if that was "merely" -2 sigma instead of like -4 sigma, we probably clean up.

I envisioned something like 12/07, 12/08 or 12/71.

Oops.

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9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still feel like we will end up with a big interior event somehow....even in a shit pattern....like a spring bowling ball, or something. I just find it hard to believe that this season will end this paltry.

I do agree on this…or at least she’ll tease us  cuz this season is an evil beotch. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I envisioned something like 12/07, 12/08 or 12/71.

Opps.

Yeah when I started seeing the -PNA/-NAO pattern setting up on guidance, I was starting to think big things for the month, but it ended up being a harbinger of how this season has gone. Always something unforeseen and anomalous to screw up an otherwise great setup....whether its a double boob low turning a Feb '13 into an E MA CJ or having the -PNA decide to dig far enough south for Cabo San Lucas to freeze their balls off.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah when I started seeing the -PNA/-NAO pattern setting up on guidance, I was starting to think big things for the month, but it ended up being a harbinger of how this season has gone. Always something unforeseen and anomalous to screw up an otherwise great setup....whether its a double boob low turning a Feb '13 into an E MA CJ or having the -PNA decide to dig far enough south for Cabo San Lucas to freeze their balls off.

Missing out on those events in December, and the blizzard growing tits is the difference between where we are now, and where I expected the interior to be at this point of the season in terms of snowfall.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Missing out on those events in December, and the blizzard growing tits is the difference between where we are now, and where I expected the interior to be at this point of the season in terms of snowfall.

Yeah the interior is having a sneaky bad year....even a place like ORH who got nearly 15" in the blizzard and even got a pair of 6" events (1/7 mesoband and the 1/17 BGM storm front-ended them) before the blizzard....is taking it on the chin this winter. They are like 12" below normal now on the season and the deficit is only going to grow over the next week.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Missing out on those events in December, and the blizzard growing tits is the difference between where we are now, and where I expected the interior to be at this point of the season in terms of snowfall.

Yup.  The unforeseen is always lurking…and this year it has reared it ugly head.  As bad as it’s been for some of us…2/11 is always very dangerous to declare the winter done. She gonna torture some more I’m afraid. 

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully we can grab another 56F on the 3-4th of July again like last year.

ha hahhahaha... I was just thinking that -

What really made last year epic was that it started two Xmas' ago.. .with that dragon breath S gale on that holiday... Followed by Memorial Day massacre ... Followed by that 4th of July ordeal that really could only be out played by a species ending extinction event .. .Then, that not being enough, I'm pretty sure that Labor Day was at least half consecrated in rectal plaque -

I mean, that lotto winning ( or losing I guess - ) is in and of its self, a 500 year return rate -

wow

In fact ...fuggit!  may as well package this shit show winter up in that same craziness.  

By the way, even Harvey Leonard thinks this winter has been an extraordinary venture in wasted potential - it's not just affectation. It really did defy odds to in order to be a turd.

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12 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup.  The unforeseen is always lurking…and this year it has reared it ugly head.  As bad as it’s been for some of us…2/11 is always very dangerous to declare the winter done. She gonna torture some more I’m afraid. 

I do feel for those that missed out on the biggie a couple of weeks ago. I always hope for a more region wide event. I don't even care about jacking...as long as it's good snows...who cares. If I get 10-12" and someone gets 20", that's cool. 

 

I will say the last few years has lost some fun on the boards. Snow maps have ruined it. Before it was tracking the rain/sleet/snow lines. Now it's posting clown maps and obsessing with deformation bands. I just feel like it's taken away some fun. 

 

Even me, during the blizzard, I was obsessed with tracking the bands and looking to see what others were getting. I finally put the dam phone down and went outside to enjoy it. 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the interior is having a sneaky bad year....even a place like ORH who got nearly 15" in the blizzard and even got a pair of 6" events (1/7 mesoband and the 1/17 BGM storm front-ended them) before the blizzard....is taking it on the chin this winter. They are like 12" below normal now on the season and the deficit is only going to grow over the next week.

 

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yup.  The unforeseen is always lurking…and this year it has reared it ugly head.  As bad as it’s been for some of us…2/11 is always very dangerous to declare the winter done. She gonna torture some more I’m afraid. 

And can't forget about MLK, which would have been a great event in nine out of ten seasons.

This is that one-

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do feel for those that missed out on the biggie a couple of weeks ago. I always hope for a more region wide event. I don't even care about jacking...as long as it's good snows...who cares. If I get 10-12" and someone gets 20", that's cool. 

 

I will say the last few years has lost some fun on the boards. Snow maps have ruined it. Before it was tracking the rain/sleet/snow lines. Now it's posting clown maps and obsessing with deformation bands. I just feel like it's taken away some fun. 

 

Even me, during the blizzard, I was obsessed with tracking the bands and looking to see what others were getting. I finally put the dam phone down and went outside to enjoy it. 

Well, there is less to track in a CJ event....all of those lines were near Bermuda.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No. I will never be a heat guy.

idk...you already want to end winter early when it goes to hell in Feb/Mar so you may be one of those types that likes summer heat more as you get older and your body changes. I used to think like you, but then there's a year that comes where suddenly 90F kinda feels nice and 30F feels intolerable.

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