February 2022 Obs/Disco

[ORH_wxman]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is we have a shot in March. Some indicators of the tropics  trying to help.

Looks like cold—>warm—>cold again (low chance of storm?) and then back to mild to finish February.

EPSis back to a furnace to end February. But it’s been showing that off and on for weeks and it never seems to verify. But might be a little more plausible this time…they still disagree though with GEFS over what’s happening in the EPO region. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPSis back to a furnace to end February. But it’s been showing that off and on for weeks and it never seems to verify. But might be a little more plausible this time…they still disagree though with GEFS over what’s happening in the EPO region. 

Yeah still disagreement there. I do feel like it will be mild, but it would be nice to get a couple of events in before the month closes. We’ll see I guess. 
 

Stinks to lose this Sunday thing. Yeah maybe some light snow, but with the cold coming in, a fresh blanket of white would be nice. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah still disagreement there. I do feel like it will be mild, but it would be nice to get a couple of events in before the month closes. We’ll see I guess. 
 

Stinks to lose this Sunday thing. Yeah maybe some light snow, but with the cold coming in, a fresh blanket of white would be nice. 

In all honesty, I'm pulling for the EPS....no desire for piggy lipstick, consolation 2-5" events at this stage. I'm just done and ready for this labor agreement to get done.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah still disagreement there. I do feel like it will be mild, but it would be nice to get a couple of events in before the month closes. We’ll see I guess. 
 

Stinks to lose this Sunday thing. Yeah maybe some light snow, but with the cold coming in, a fresh blanket of white would be nice. 

Man there are places in my hometown in protected valleys with 6 plus still OTG. Amazing differences within hundreds of feet depending on exposure.  Also it's epic frozen highway waterfalls. I know you love these. Rt 6 in Columbia 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Man there are places in my hometown in protected valleys with 6 plus still OTG. Amazing differences within hundreds of feet depending on exposure.  Also it's epic frozen highway waterfalls. I know you love these. Rt 6 in Columbia 

Surprisingly, decent coverage still in my hood.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

In all honesty, I'm pulling for the EPS....no desire for piggy lipstick, consolation 2-5" events. I'm just done and ready for this labor agreement to get done.

A nice 2 to 3 inch white blanket with the cold for a couple days will certainly be welcome with open arms. The beauty just makes me feel nostalgic and with no doubt is a mood enhancer during stick brown grass season.

[Ginx snewx]

7 hours ago, ice1972 said:

If you still don’t think it’s the worst winter in the record check again lol…..I called it back in December…..

36 inches in 2 weeks. Have had very much worse and it ain't over. 

[Ginx snewx]

12 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Starting to think most of SNE has seen last snowfall 

Drunk?

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

there's a few that were worse

2001-02 is at the top for worst winters going by the WSI.  1997-98 is up there too.  More recently 2011-12 makes the list, Octosnow notwithstanding.

 

This one is up there for me in terms of snowfall deficits...not warmth. But with respect to snowfall....its along side 2011-2012, 1994-1995, 1991-1992 an 1988-1989. I'm only 4.6" over my futility record of 1979-1980.

This is about as bad as it gets here, and I'm not sure some realize just how bad it has been when I got shit on for complaining after the blizzard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

A nice 2 to 3 inch white blanket with the cold for a couple days will certainly be welcome with open arms. The beauty just makes me feel nostalgic and with no doubt is a mood enhancer during stick brown grass season.

I def understand that.

[Lava Rock]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My guess is we have a shot in March. Some indicators of the tropics  trying to help.

Looks like cold—>warm—>cold again (low chance of storm?) and then back to mild to finish February.

By mid-March in any given year regardless how much sn we have otg, I'm ready to pack it in and start the warming trend. Late season snows are great for the ski areas to extend the season, but everywhere else, it's pretty useless other than to pad the season. I was feeling pretty good about where we were as of a couple weeks ago. Right up until last wknd, there was a good pack nearly everywhere up here, but the higher sun angle and warmer temps this week have taken a toll. Near 50F tomorrow will do some more damage. I'd be pissed if the rest of the month goes out without either a good (6-10+') storm or a couple smaller events. Too early to grade this winter, but I'd give it a B/B- at this point. If it weren't for the extended Jan cold and ability to preserve the glacier, it would be a C-.

[mreaves]

5 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

You really are autistic aren't you?  Don't make fun of two of the greatest musical artists of all time dude.  Their other senses more than made up for whatever you think they lacked.

@LibertyBellpretty insensitive and dickish response don't you think?  You've posted enough in OT and AMPol to know that using the R word is a bannable offense, do you really think using autism is any better?

[UnitedWx]

8 minutes ago, mreaves said:

@LibertyBellpretty insensitive and dickish response don't you think?  You've posted enough in OT and AMPol to know that using the R word is a bannable offense, do you really think using autism is any better?

I agree. It's basically saying the same thing. Personally I'm not one to be offended by the words people use, I just can't stand someone being a dick...

[Typhoon Tip]

42 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

By mid-March in any given year regardless how much sn we have otg, I'm ready to pack it in and start the warming trend. Late season snows are great for the ski areas to extend the season, but everywhere else, it's pretty useless other than to pad the season. I was feeling pretty good about where we were as of a couple weeks ago. Right up until last wknd, there was a good pack nearly everywhere up here, but the higher sun angle and warmer temps this week have taken a toll. Near 50F tomorrow will do some more damage. I'd be pissed if the rest of the month goes out without either a good (6-10+') storm or a couple smaller events. Too early to grade this winter, but I'd give it a B/B- at this point. If it weren't for the extended Jan cold and ability to preserve the glacier, it would be a C-.

Agreed.. Not much tolerance for cold my way ... to which snow chances need?  Thus, the latter ends up annoying for me as well. 

That said, I admit to some hypocrisy based in either of two circumstances.  

The first being, it's an unusual .. call it near or at historic March run, such that the in situ pattern is compensating for seasonal change close to complete proficiency - certainly ...excessively high percentage stoppage.   I have never seen that, but March 1956 apparently did that. 

The second being, a single extraordinary event ... upper bound standard deviation, ... return rate of over a 30+ years.  Like 1993...  1888 ... arguably, 1997, probably May 1977.   Those are worth the sit through, both educational, exciting, and d-dripping (lol.. making a joke about 'dopamine drip' and addiction to this shit).  Anyway, lob one of these at me and I can check back in for a brief stay.  The thing about one-and-done March+ bombs and/or assorted rareness, usually within 10 days your shirt sleeves are short again, and actually .. it can be interesting dichotomous affect with open field snow patches at 70 F ... I've seen that only a few times and is also a rare gem.  Basically, if the in situ circumstance is significant enough -

If the season, by destiny, will not host one of those two circumstances... I'd rather it be 70+ until next mid October.  

Despite these druthers ... rest assured, whatever happens it will most certainly figure out how to achieve the geometric unlikeliness of getting equal distance from three distinct points amid a perspective plain - essentially ... the ext center away from a circle of joy.

[MJO812]

 

[Ginx snewx]

13 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies Have a +AO. What blocking?

Awesome cold late March and April.  Those wishing winter goes away pay the price with 40s 50s dark dank and rainy., oh joy.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Awesome cold late March and April.  Those wishing winter goes away pay the price with 40s 50s dark dank and rainy., oh joy.

Yup…that’s the fear. When we don’t want it. 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Yup…that’s the fear. When we don’t want it. 

If I  controlled it we would be stormy snowy until late March then flip the switch to dry sunny for weeks with 60s into April  but if wishes were dishes...

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Awesome cold late March and April.  Those wishing winter goes away pay the price with 40s 50s dark dank and rainy., oh joy.

Well, that isn't winter going away...that is winter lingering....too bad. I thought we would get that about a month earlier, a la 2018.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

If I  controlled it we would be stormy snowy until late March then flip the switch to dry sunny for weeks with 60s into April  but if wishes were dishes...

I mean, if its going to produce, lovely....

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, that isn't winter going away...that is winter lingering.

Always seems to be a lag but some years just spring from March 1st to May. Hope we do that if it isn't cold and snowy. March 12 and March 18 are the spectrum ends, somewhere in the middle is our reality. Teased by warmth,# backdoored by Mainiacs and  Cannucks rotting snow cold air.

[WxWatcher007]

Meh. A torch would be nice. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Ah ... I dunno 'bout that. 

1 .. that is so late in the year, by then it may be too late.  There is a time lag of ~ 20-days ( minimum..) before a downwelling warm wave begins to mechanically suppress, subsequently stabilize the PV, which --> -AO.   Three weeks past March 11 is already into April?  By then, the mid latitude R-wave distribution manifold is already seasonally disrupted too much.  That means the polar domain events are decoupled(ing) from the mid latitudes - and the former forcing vector goes with it.   I have seen those very late events in the catalogue at CPC, found here: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/   ... and the AO's do not respond as coherently as they do when SSWs occurred earlier in the respective seasons. 

2 .. even if that is a legit warming event ... is it downward propagating?   This question is crucial.  If it just bounces around and doesn't demonstrate a downwelling behavior, it's not enough to just exist.  This latter aspect is routinely either negated, or not understood.  People bandy the SSW's about without doing that determination, too much - not saying that is Mike, but there's not enough there indicating a extrapolation from the onset of that.   It's a moot question as to how it effects if it's not doing that behavior if no.

3 .. if the EPS long range for this is anything comparable in performance as the EPS has been in the other scopes of the total planetary system, I'd say the chances of that initial onset of that is iffy at best.   I dunno though - maybe it is amAzing just doing this one aspect... 

All this suggests for me there is a 90% chance that is meaningless.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Amazing resiliency to our snowpack in ESNE. That sleet layer is still frozen and you can still walk on the snow. Southern exposures are torched but protected valley areas are 100% covered.

[DavisStraight]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Drunk?

I think he said that before the blizzard too, might be a reverse psychology thing.

[Allsnow]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPSis back to a furnace to end February. But it’s been showing that off and on for weeks and it never seems to verify. But might be a little more plausible this time…they still disagree though with GEFS over what’s happening in the EPO region. 

Pv going to couple as all the cold retreats to the pole. With the mjo  moving into the warm phases I would expect a warm finish to February 

[wxeyeNH]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

36 inches in 2 weeks. Have had very much worse and it ain't over. 

More snow than I have this season, but still 12" of glacier otg.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Pv going to couple as all the cold retreats to the pole. With the mjo  moving into the warm phases I would expect a warm finish to February 

mm hm, that's the way it looks ..but the magnitude is an interesting question for me. 

One take:  the dailies handling, the PNA telecon, is presently not hugely negative coming from the GEF cluster. 

I'm not sure what the EPS curves look like - are they concerted or dispersive?   are they showing a mean that is deeper(shallower) than the GEFs (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif )..   Just for confidence's sake, cross guidance support ..etc. 

Anyway, the oscillatory behavior coming out of the last several cycles of the operational runs et al that other's are noting, really actually fits a more neutral PNA suggestion.  

take two:  The AO is forecast to be loudly positive, as is the NAO... well into the end of month.  So, even modestly negative PNA may end up with a disproportionately N displaced exit latitude of the continental westerlies.  That's code for, more eastern ridging, more so than the models are showing at this time.   There may be a subtle correction vector to raise eastern heights, in which case, that occurs over time as an emergent property...

Yet a third take ... year over year seasonal trend.  We've observed some startlingly warm events to 45 N across eastern N/A in recent late winters and early springs.   This has taken place pretty much regardless of ENSO this, or polar index tendencies...  So there's some sort of causal root that's difficult to ascertain - it could just have been dumb luck that we've had so many of those over the last 10 years.  Having said that, it does make one wonder:  if we map 'take two' over this local climate signal, what happens then?   Actually, superimposing 'take one' over that may hedge warmer yet. 

Lastly, this is all predicated on the assumption that these telecon spreads are stable outlooks. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

36 inches in 2 weeks. Have had very much worse and it ain't over. 

You have about double what the Berkshires have.  Crazy gradient this winter.  I would have to imagine you were ahead of Mitch in the snow department this year.

[CoastalWx]

19 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You have about double what the Berkshires have.  Crazy gradient this winter.  I would have to imagine you were ahead of Mitch in the snow department this year.

Nah he’s ahead of us.