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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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hey ... know what guys ?

This 180 hour depiction off the 12z GFS looks remarkably similar to the way the sleet event also looked when it, too, was  7.5 days away...  You might recall?  Then as we got closer, the GFS tried to argue more snow... but it ended up being a drab rain a 2" sleet fest...  Just sayn' ... we may not want to be sold on this thin cutting quite a proficiently as it now looks, because it certainly was negotiable on the last event.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

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23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hey ... know what guys ?

This 180 hour depiction off the 12z GFS looks remarkably similar to the way the sleet event also looked when it, too, was a 7.5 days away...  You might recall?  Then as we got closer, the GFS tried to argue more snow... but it ended up being a drab rain a 2" sleet fest...  Just sayn' ... we may not want to be sold on this thin cutting quite a proficiently as it now looks, because it certainly was negotiable on the last event.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

One after it looks more fruitful, but jeez 10.5 days out...

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

hey ... know what guys ?

This 180 hour depiction off the 12z GFS looks remarkably similar to the way the sleet event also looked when it, too, was  7.5 days away...  You might recall?  Then as we got closer, the GFS tried to argue more snow... but it ended up being a drab rain a 2" sleet fest...  Just sayn' ... we may not want to be sold on this thin cutting quite a proficiently as it now looks, because it certainly was negotiable on the last event.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

Take the warmer rain and run because the option is probably a colder rain and crud.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

In the 11-15 day. Sort of overrunning look.

Not perfect but I would take that and run, nothing wrong with a bunch of smaller 6-12 type deals. We have been missing that this year. I would like to see one more big one before winter ends, but it looks like if we get one it’s going to wait until March. This mid month threat just doesn’t want to cooperate.

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13 minutes ago, George001 said:

image.thumb.png.ecb6c3eaa68ac9501cd1d492626951ed.pngThis looks like an interesting setup for the 20th. Not great, looks too flat but with a few adjustments maybe we have something. It looks like we are going to torch after this so maybe we were looking at the wrong system for the big pattern changing storm.

Meh... that look, at that range, has been all but a permanent fixture on the ens clustered means ever since the hemisphere decoupled from the La Nina model and became a bitter divorce proceeding ...lasting about a month's worth of mid, now into late winter.  

I mean it could nest an event in there ...but, with other signals now coming into constructive interference with La Nina, it may reconcile differences and have make up sex, giving birth to no more winter.   ... Which isn't that far fetched, considering we've sported 80 F in a lot of Feb and Mar going back 7 years of late winter and early springs without those kind of converging signals.   Ouch.   

All I'm saying is take the normal reduction in probability going forward, and slope it a little more badly.  Start there, and filter everything through it ..and fortunately for us there won't be any opportunities to use the term blizzard.  In fact, right here ... in this moment, I almost hope CC stops that word from every being said again.  interesting...

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 hint hint ...I think the suppression idea has merit - I'm not merely bullshitting for fun.  We'll see if keeps going, but there are (large systemic synoptic circumstances + trend)/2 = reasons to at least keep that option in mind. 

If not, it would alter the fact that of those circumstances and reasons - we'll see.

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