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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS is an overrunning look. Might be good up north. Hopefully gradient is a little south.

 

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Long range is mild. Back broken. Doesn’t mean we can’t have snow though.

Kevin has called for March 2012 every year since March 12. A once in a lifetime month. Like calling for 2015 every winter. Total weenie 

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6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

Kevin has called for March 2012 every year since March 12. A once in a lifetime month. Like calling for 2015 every winter. Total weenie 

 

18 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hmm

How are the two major winter storms over the next 10 days that you mentioned the other day look? Post details!

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

With the MJO going in 4 , expect a warm March and a cold spring.

Oi! Oi! Oi! Oi! Oi! Oi!

Ain't got no snow
Ain't got no cold
But you can start a storm

'Cause I've got MJO! I feel alright
MJO! It'll win the fight
MJO! Don't care what the models show
MJO! MJO will make it snowwwww

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1 hour ago, Heat Miser said:

Happy first official day of "sun angle" season, everyone! 

Yup... this is the first day of "solar spring" :)  ... I'm looking forward to exit, personally.  

I've extolled in the past that once I've 'checked out' on winter?  Yuck.  It's really a psycho-babble switch for me.  No interest in looking back; exceptions need be extraordinary.  It is otherwise, very difficult to get me interested. 

There needs to be a some sort of unusually large, multi-interval standard deviation event to get pulled back in. 1888, perhaps 1956, ... 1993 ... 1997.  Maybe 2005, though I recall being both amazed and disappointed, when in a moment, as I parked outside a mini-mart, a gust of gelid wind rose snow off a flat roof at 1:30 pm one afternoon in mid April and momentarily dropped the visibility out car window to frappe.   

Otherwise, the daily charts are an uninspired tedious drag for me - particularly in this geographical area of Earth, where circumstantially... cold is enabled to "cheat," but seldom cheats enough.  I mean, ... that's what 38.4 in drizzle on April 10 in an air mass that smells like frozen salmon balls is, while it's 74 at Albany ... with the aroma of fresh cut lawns.   

 

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I'm leaning Scott's direction on the next two weeks ... once we get past the Looney "Ralph Phillips" blizzard in the foreground, the winter back's essentially broken.

That said, I'm not sure the other side of the "daydream" will exactly feature a balmy escape, either. 

Firstly, the warm up next week ... might be oversold in the operational model versions.  I've seen that in that in the past, where those types of eastern ridges start out as a 5 day long warm balm, suggested some 12 days in advance. Then by day 10, it's a 4 days... interrupted possibly by a BD.  Then by day 5 its been whittled down 2.5 days with an accelerated trending cold front.  The reason I suspect this type of modulation is in part because the numerical telecon spread in the GEFs isn't really presenting a strongly negative PNA. It's really more like, negative relative to present. It's actually more neutral.  Meanwhile, the graphic presentation of the EPS/GEFs means, they don't look very impressive with that ridge in the east, either.  They are rather flat and progressive. 

Secondly, didn't we just go through this back in mid January, ...when the Weeklies and the EPS ... even the GEFs for a little while, all signaled a warm pattern in February; actual temperatures records notwithstanding ... the pattern didn't seem to work out too well. I remember the PNA at CPC (GEF's based) at the time, did show the mean slump negative into the first week of February. But what actually took place was the PNA kept correcting back possitive.  So I guess this is verification trend argument.

There is a (perhaps) crucial difference now, though. According to the same CPC ( and statistical factual inference, either way..), the emerging Phase 3-4-5-6 side of the RMM is in constructive interference with the La Nina - this combination was not taking place back in mid January's prognostics.   So that alters the map a little...  If these two can couple and 'force' a more La Nina model hemisphere, then spring is maybe interpretive-split between this easterly biased La Nina vs just La Nina in general..  There's a bit of a signal difference there.  Frankly, I find that CC is screwing ENSO up enough anyway, that any reliance is getting iffier, but that's another debate altogether.   It's probably a smear between the two.   

Later on... the hemisphere probably seasonally slows down ( actual geostrophic base line velocities) deeper in March anyway...and when that happens, just like the last several years... I wonder if we don't go through some 'slosh back' blocking for a couple of weeks..

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Here's a hotdog post:

... if this days synopsis were to set up and play out a couple months from now...well, maybe sometimes in May, we might be dealing with some thunder -

You can tell by hi res vis imagery, lower level SW flow ... and then mid level W-E punching jet over NYS.

But yeah... 52 over a snow pack in a broken cloud day on Feb 10 is a sneaky warm day, not doubter

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25 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I guess in his defense we have a trough at H5 and BN 850s. Of course in April that can translate to near normal at the surface with enough sun.

Yeah departures in spring are mostly driven by onshore flow/diabatics...esp once past the first couple weeks (we can still get solid cold from deep layer advection in late March/early Apr but it loses it's punch really quick after that)

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