Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Didn’t realize FZFG was a potential this morning. Ran into it on Rt 14 in Scotland at 630 it was like oh shit the road went from dry to ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 16 hours ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is an overrunning look. Might be good up north. Hopefully gradient is a little south. 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Long range is mild. Back broken. Doesn’t mean we can’t have snow though. Kevin has called for March 2012 every year since March 12. A once in a lifetime month. Like calling for 2015 every winter. Total weenie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Kevin has called for March 2012 every year since March 12. A once in a lifetime month. Like calling for 2015 every winter. Total weenie 18 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Hmm How are the two major winter storms over the next 10 days that you mentioned the other day look? Post details! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 You know what everyone needs right now? Another covid variant outbreak. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: How are the two major winter storms over the next 10 days that you mentioned the other day look? Post details! NAM looks good lol. Pretty sure I never said anything but there was a chance but you roll with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 5 hours ago, ice1972 said: Nobody wants that lol we want 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: NAM looks good lol. Pretty sure I never said anything but there was a chance but you roll with that. Happy 70th bday ! Enjoy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 There's a lot of water in the pack up here. I'd take a core, but I wouldn't be able to get the can through it. This will be me going out to my run in a month. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: With the MJO going in 4 , expect a warm March and a cold spring. Oi! Oi! Oi! Oi! Oi! Oi! Ain't got no snow Ain't got no cold But you can start a storm 'Cause I've got MJO! I feel alright MJO! It'll win the fight MJO! Don't care what the models show MJO! MJO will make it snowwwww 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 22 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: NAM looks good lol. Pretty sure I never said anything but there was a chance but you roll with that. Just like getting struck by lightning...There's always a chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I know we’re all moving on to spring down here! Next weekend looks like it could end up decent for the NNE peeps. Maybe some room to trend for down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 The "if it's not gonna snow let's just have 75 every day" tantrums are early this year. People should just move to Colorado. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Miser Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Happy first official day of "sun angle" season, everyone! 4 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Heat Miser said: Happy first official day of "sun angle" season, everyone! Yup... this is the first day of "solar spring" ... I'm looking forward to exit, personally. I've extolled in the past that once I've 'checked out' on winter? Yuck. It's really a psycho-babble switch for me. No interest in looking back; exceptions need be extraordinary. It is otherwise, very difficult to get me interested. There needs to be a some sort of unusually large, multi-interval standard deviation event to get pulled back in. 1888, perhaps 1956, ... 1993 ... 1997. Maybe 2005, though I recall being both amazed and disappointed, when in a moment, as I parked outside a mini-mart, a gust of gelid wind rose snow off a flat roof at 1:30 pm one afternoon in mid April and momentarily dropped the visibility out car window to frappe. Otherwise, the daily charts are an uninspired tedious drag for me - particularly in this geographical area of Earth, where circumstantially... cold is enabled to "cheat," but seldom cheats enough. I mean, ... that's what 38.4 in drizzle on April 10 in an air mass that smells like frozen salmon balls is, while it's 74 at Albany ... with the aroma of fresh cut lawns. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Heat Miser said: Happy first official day of "sun angle" season, everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 On 2/9/2022 at 8:10 AM, Lava Rock said: so winter will basically be 4-6wks long this year. Sweet. That's still longer that a NNE Summer 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Cfs has a cool April 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 I'm leaning Scott's direction on the next two weeks ... once we get past the Looney "Ralph Phillips" blizzard in the foreground, the winter back's essentially broken. That said, I'm not sure the other side of the "daydream" will exactly feature a balmy escape, either. Firstly, the warm up next week ... might be oversold in the operational model versions. I've seen that in that in the past, where those types of eastern ridges start out as a 5 day long warm balm, suggested some 12 days in advance. Then by day 10, it's a 4 days... interrupted possibly by a BD. Then by day 5 its been whittled down 2.5 days with an accelerated trending cold front. The reason I suspect this type of modulation is in part because the numerical telecon spread in the GEFs isn't really presenting a strongly negative PNA. It's really more like, negative relative to present. It's actually more neutral. Meanwhile, the graphic presentation of the EPS/GEFs means, they don't look very impressive with that ridge in the east, either. They are rather flat and progressive. Secondly, didn't we just go through this back in mid January, ...when the Weeklies and the EPS ... even the GEFs for a little while, all signaled a warm pattern in February; actual temperatures records notwithstanding ... the pattern didn't seem to work out too well. I remember the PNA at CPC (GEF's based) at the time, did show the mean slump negative into the first week of February. But what actually took place was the PNA kept correcting back possitive. So I guess this is verification trend argument. There is a (perhaps) crucial difference now, though. According to the same CPC ( and statistical factual inference, either way..), the emerging Phase 3-4-5-6 side of the RMM is in constructive interference with the La Nina - this combination was not taking place back in mid January's prognostics. So that alters the map a little... If these two can couple and 'force' a more La Nina model hemisphere, then spring is maybe interpretive-split between this easterly biased La Nina vs just La Nina in general.. There's a bit of a signal difference there. Frankly, I find that CC is screwing ENSO up enough anyway, that any reliance is getting iffier, but that's another debate altogether. It's probably a smear between the two. Later on... the hemisphere probably seasonally slows down ( actual geostrophic base line velocities) deeper in March anyway...and when that happens, just like the last several years... I wonder if we don't go through some 'slosh back' blocking for a couple of weeks.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Tickling 50F here with sun and little wind. Love the snow but these days are always very welcomed toward the back half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 hours ago, Cold Miser said: Just like getting struck by lightning...There's always a chance. Well it's not like saying there is a chance your hair grows back, these were legitimate chances based on how the hemisphere lined up. Win some lose some. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Cfs has a cool April bundle up 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Well it's not like saying there is a chance your hair grows back, these were legitimate chances based on how the hemisphere lined up. Win some lose some. I need chia seeds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said: bundle up I guess in his defense we have a trough at H5 and BN 850s. Of course in April that can translate to near normal at the surface with enough sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: I guess in his defense we have a trough at H5 and BN 850s. Of course in April that can translate to near normal at the surface with enough sun. Oh yeah, I was just light trolling. Didn't look "cold", maybe coolish and yeah those 850s can be deceiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Sn0waddict said: Tickling 50F here with sun and little wind. Love the snow but these days are always very welcomed toward the back half of winter. Wind has started ripping here the last hour. What a waste of 48-50F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 10, 2022 Author Share Posted February 10, 2022 50.7 what a day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: Wind has started ripping here the last hour. What a waste of 48-50F. Stay safe, and keep the women and children inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 Here's a hotdog post: ... if this days synopsis were to set up and play out a couple months from now...well, maybe sometimes in May, we might be dealing with some thunder - You can tell by hi res vis imagery, lower level SW flow ... and then mid level W-E punching jet over NYS. But yeah... 52 over a snow pack in a broken cloud day on Feb 10 is a sneaky warm day, not doubter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 25 minutes ago, dendrite said: I guess in his defense we have a trough at H5 and BN 850s. Of course in April that can translate to near normal at the surface with enough sun. Yeah departures in spring are mostly driven by onshore flow/diabatics...esp once past the first couple weeks (we can still get solid cold from deep layer advection in late March/early Apr but it loses it's punch really quick after that) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2022 Share Posted February 10, 2022 After George’s blizzard takes hold of the region on SB Sunday, where do we go from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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