40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s probably struggling with the tropical forcing for sure. Typically when LR models are way off, I’ve often noticed them trying to go with some big tropical forcing and then it just ends up weaker than they thought and other factors override it. I wonder if the euro is trying to push the forcing into unfavorable areas but keeps getting rejected by reality….I haven’t looked super close at the MJO/convection progs in the last week but I do know that the GEFS and EPS were differing there. I thought they were both pretty much in agreement on emerging in phase 3... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Judge what? I think you are being clouded by recent memory bias. Okay...what do you average, 35-40"? List your seasonal totals past 4 years...this year you must already be exceeding average. I'm 40" below for starters...let's revisit last year. I ended up with 51" with just about 63" avg. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Off the top of my head, I would say the ratter year of 2019-2020 is the exception. While still well below average with about 48", I did better than you did mostly bc of the 12/2019 event. 2018-2019 you also did better...I had 44". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: It's not like we haven't been free of screwjies. December 2019 and then last Feb 2021 were really pork jobs. Feb 2021 was really bad in eastern mass. I got 8 inches, then I drive 30 minutes to Framingham and what do ya know, they got 18 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Okay...what do you average, 35-40"? List your seasonal totals past 4 years...this year you must already be exceeding average. I'm 40" below for starters...let's revisit last year. I ended up with 51" with just about 63" avg. There’s no way he averages high 30s… I average low 40s… he’s gotta be high 40 anyway. His area has done pretty well though, if there’s a big storm, expect Weymouth to be near the top of accums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 This is pretty cool.. weather balloon tracking https://sondehub.org/#!mt=Mapnik&mz=5&qm=1h&mc=53.46751,-2.23389 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: There’s no way he averages high 30s… I average low 40s… he’s gotta be high 40 anyway After the past 4 seasons, he probably averages 50" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, George001 said: Feb 2021 was really bad in eastern mass. I got 8 inches, then I drive 30 minutes to Framingham and what do ya know, they got 18 inches. Right...but what did you end with on the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: After the past 4 seasons, he probably averages 50" My 30 yr avg is about 50". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Actually it may be a bit more than that because Hingham is almost 53" Although not sure how the "M" counts in those. Anyways going back to 1960..."Ms" or not, but whatever...you have a good sample size...the avg there is 50". So I might be a tick better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right...but what did you end with on the season? High 40s or so, not terrible but not great either. This winter so far I’m in the low 30s, which is very good for this time of the year. On pace to finish in the high 50s to low 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Actually it may be a bit more than that because Hingham is almost 53" Although not sure how the "M" counts in those. Anyways going back to 1960..."Ms" or not, but whatever...you have a good sample size...the avg there is 50". So I might be a tick better. Sounds right. I tend to mistakenly refer back to when Boston averaged around 42" for a long time, but it's gone up. Anyway, all I meant was I am sure you are safely above average in the aggregate over past 4 seasons. From you, to Will to Steve has been on a heater. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Off the top of my head, I would say the ratter year of 2019-2020 is the exception. While still well below average with about 48", I did better than you did mostly bc of the 12/2019 event. 2018-2019 you also did better...I had 44". I guess you are looking back at some big events and comparing, but I've had some tough ones. Hell even the March 2018 blizzard sort of screwed me with 16" as I got caught in a subby zone. I get when looking at it from a "normal" snowfall standpoint it has screwed you moreso, but this area has a much larger standard deviation for snowfalls. So given that, one would expect some variation and it gets tougher to use normal snowfall for a comparison. I will say we have been fortunate at times, I don't dispute that and I'm sure the tide will turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I guess you are looking back at some big events and comparing, but I've had some tough ones. Hell even the March 2018 blizzard sort of screwed me with 16" as I got caught in a subby zone. I get when looking at it from a "normal" snowfall standpoint it has screwed you moreso, but this area has a much larger standard deviation for snowfalls. So given that, one would expect some variation and it gets tougher to use normal snowfall for a comparison. I will say we have been fortunate at times, I don't dispute that and I'm sure the tide will turn. Agree 100% with this post. Great point about larger SD, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, George001 said: High 40s or so, not terrible but not great either. This winter so far I’m in the low 30s, which is very good for this time of the year. On pace to finish in the high 50s to low 60s. I thought you did better, but makes since since you got boned some on 2/1. The gravy train last year was a bit NW of you, near Will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I thought you did better, but makes since since you got boned some on 2/1. The gravy train last year was a bit NW of you, near Will. Yeah my area to ORH was above average last year. I had like 70”…ORH had 77”. They got nearly 10” in the 12/5 event when I got 4” which was the difference in our season…though even my 4” was pretty good in that one as most of the areas east of me got 1-2” of slop. It should be noted that ORH is running way below average this season. They got less than you did in the 1/29 event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually it may be a bit more than that because Hingham is almost 53" Although not sure how the "M" counts in those. Anyways going back to 1960..."Ms" or not, but whatever...you have a good sample size...the avg there is 50". So I might be a tick better. I can't believe Hingham averages that much, I'm pretty sure Greenfield only averages 60". The Valley robs so surrounding hilltowns are probably 10-15" more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah my area to ORH was above average last year. I had like 70”…ORH had 77”. They got nearly 10” in the 12/5 event when I got 4” which was the difference in our season…though even my 4” was pretty good in that one as most of the areas east of me got 1-2” of slop. It should be noted that ORH is running way below average this season. They got less than you did in the 1/29 event. Dave in Hubbardston is at 29" which I would think is probably fairly below average for YTD for N ORH Co. Only about 16" here so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 Judging by the conversation, as I wait to get off the plane Back for the first time in 3 weeks, it SEEMS there are No threats at all.... Outside of this GOD AWFUL Rain & Fog right now out the window Melting the Snow!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 BOS new 30 year normal is 48. Ray thinks he has the climate of Concord while Scooter that of Hyannis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its almost like they have kept trying to default to torch la nina climo, which was never a good idea with an east-based event. Which would be an interesting trick considering the atmosphere has apparently divorced it's self from the La Nina ocean ... now dating back three weeks. ... according to CPCs analysis - 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 41 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOS new 30 year normal is 48. Ray thinks he has the climate of Concord while Scooter that of Hyannis. Yeah I’m likely somewhere near 48-52ish give or take. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 57 minutes ago, TheSnowman said: Judging by the conversation, as I wait to get off the plane Back for the first time in 3 weeks, it SEEMS there are No threats at all.... Outside of this GOD AWFUL Rain & Fog right now out the window Melting the Snow!! Correct. Just a bunch of hopes and wishes for two shortwaves to somehow come together in time to get naked on vday without mother Hadley Cell’s presence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2022 Share Posted February 7, 2022 50 minutes ago, weathafella said: BOS new 30 year normal is 48. Ray thinks he has the climate of Concord while Scooter that of Hyannis. What’s BDL’s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 13 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What’s BDL’s? 51.7” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: BOS new 30 year normal is 48. Ray thinks he has the climate of Concord while Scooter that of Hyannis. Jerry, I stated what my average is, so I'm not sure where your confusion lies. People love to imply it's in my head, blah, blah, but everytime I ask someone to list the seasonal totals for Weymouth area compared to average the past 4 seasons, no one ever does it. If it's in my head, then prove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 BTV 87.5” ORH 72.9” MQE 69.7” PWM 68.7” CON 67.7” BDL 51.7” BOS 49.2” PVD 36.6” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: BTV 87.5” ORH 72.9” MQE 69.7” PWM 68.7” CON 67.7” BDL 51.7” BOS 49.2” PVD 36.6” Thanks. Wow, ORH is more than I thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Thanks. Wow, ORH is more than I thought. The breakdown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 8, 2022 Share Posted February 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: The breakdown. Yea, wasn't doubting...just suprised. I'll have to try to find a decent site near Weymouth tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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