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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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I can't get enough of these events with pixie dust snow growth and temps pinned at 14 degrees, while the heavy snow bands remained pinned to rt 128 like body paint. Every now and then, a hopeless romantic from the interior will hallucinate westward migration, while demonstrating zero insight to the fact that we have cycled through same faux ob three times over.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Now, you're talking...you know how to get me all hot and bothered.

Maybe next week is the one....currently wide right miss....start backing it up slowly over the next 2-3 cycles...then all of the sudden it shows a region-wide crushing at D3-4 and everyone gets excited and you have a meltdown about a dendrite to Berkshires jackpot when the 78 hour NAM dryslots you with the low over PYM, and then it starts to leak east again inside of 60 hours leaving Scooter to Taunton in the bullseye.

Maybe tonight, I'll have a more detailed description of the sequence of events so you have something to look forward to.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe next week is the one....currently wide right miss....start backing it up slowly over the next 2-3 cycles...then all of the sudden it shows a region-wide crushing at D3-4 and everyone gets excited and you have a meltdown about a dendrite to Berkshires jackpot when the 78 hour NAM dryslots you with the low over PYM, and then it starts to leak east again inside of 60 hours leaving Scooter to Taunton in the bullseye.

Maybe tonight, I'll have a more detailed description of the sequence of events so you have something to look forward to.

:lol:  

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The important news is eps caved.  Plenty of snow and cold left.  

Still trying to torch a little at the end of the run but it caved pretty bad before that in the D10-12 range. You can even see the higher heights up there on the d15 prog despite it trying to show milder. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies still furnace, but honestly they have been abysmal. Probably will change on Thursday's issuance.

I don’t think the weeklies have any 12z ingest, do they? They always show up as “00z” for initialization. But I’m not 100% on the inner workings of the weeklies. 

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's not like we haven't been free of screwjies. December 2019 and then last Feb 2021 were really pork jobs. 

Again.....what is on the scoreboard at the end of the season. I'm talking seasonal totals....not saying there hasn't been one event that is screwed se MA in 4 years.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Weeklies still furnace, but honestly they have been abysmal. Probably will change on Thursday's issuance.

I’m not sure I’ve seen them so bad before as they have been this winter. They weren’t great last winter either but they had their moments…esp with the January NAO blocking…but this year has been an utter tire fire. 
 

Kevin Martin’s chemtrail analysis would have probably been more accurate than the weeklies this year. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don’t think the weeklies have any 12z ingest, do they? They always show up as “00z” for initialization. But I’m not 100% on the inner workings of the weeklies. 

Yeah supposedly 00z? So if this holds, Thursday likely will be a colder version. Not that it means much anyways, the whole euro suite of guidance has been real suspect this season.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I’m not sure I’ve seen them so bad before as they have been this winter. They weren’t great last winter either but they had their moments…esp with the January NAO blocking…but this year has been an utter tire fire. 
 

Kevin Martin’s chemtrail analysis would have probably been more accurate than the weeklies this year. 

Its almost like they have kept trying to default to torch la nina climo, which was never a good idea with an east-based event.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its almost like they have kept trying to default to torch la nina climo, which was never a good idea with an east-based event.

It’s probably struggling with the tropical forcing for sure. Typically when LR models are way off, I’ve often noticed them trying to go with some big tropical forcing and then it just ends up weaker than they thought and other factors override it. I wonder if the euro is trying to push the forcing into unfavorable areas but keeps getting rejected by reality….I haven’t looked super close at the MJO/convection progs in the last week but I do know that the GEFS and EPS were differing there.  

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Maybe next week is the one....currently wide right miss....start backing it up slowly over the next 2-3 cycles...then all of the sudden it shows a region-wide crushing at D3-4 and everyone gets excited and you have a meltdown about a dendrite to Berkshires jackpot when the 78 hour NAM dryslots you with the low over PYM, and then it starts to leak east again inside of 60 hours leaving Scooter to Taunton in the bullseye.

Maybe tonight, I'll have a more detailed description of the sequence of events so you have something to look forward to.

Well, I'm like that because I have been so snake bitten past few years, and it happened yet again...so tell me that it wasn't warranted.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I'm like that because I have been so snake bitten past years, and it happened yet again...so tell me that it is wasn't warranted.

Welcome to our world. A good amount of 10-16” events since 13 but enough ‘what could have beens’ to keep the frustrations at the forefront. 

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10 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Welcome to our world. A good amount of 10-16” events since 13 but enough ‘what could have beens’ to keep the frustrations at the forefront. 

Best part is that all the guys that judge are near the bullseye for every event.....Will, Steve, Scott.... 

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