February 2022 Obs/Disco

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. It’s practically over, winter that is.

Basically ... it would not surprise me if the ambiance of the month ended up tinting that way - perhaps while no one is looking. Then wake on the 20th having been seduced from realizing how sore their butts were made along the way.  Tries to get spring past us LOL.  I'm not leaning that way now, but if in retrospect we were conned, at least one of us saw it coming.  m'er f'er

No but I don't think the climate signals are gone.  I think they start rearing again, IF IF IF the -EPO- like cold dumps stop servicing like the Euro cuts off.  I wonder if the EPS does that too, but we'll see - Euro could be bogus

I guess I just don't see how/why we don't observe the same sort of aggressive temperature returns like we have spanning a lot of recent springs whenever that above took place, Feb-Mar. 

It's been repeating ...  It seems we warm up when the fast flow lengthens the trough depths, and we get some early dry ridging... Then, mid late March the flow relaxes ( seasonally..) and for a month we get a 'slosh back' blocking that sets us up for packing pellets flurries on May 1. 

I                           hate                               it

 

[IowaStorm05]

1 hour ago, KEITH L.I said:

The greatest storm for Long Island and New England. I was 19 years old in Babylon Long Island. Parts of the Long Island Expressway was closed for 3 days. Drifts must have been 5 to 6 feet. Way above garage door. The most snow I have ever seen.

Hey 19. No we can’t dance together. No we can’t talk at all. Please take me along when you slide on down.

[Cold Miser]

Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

Hey 19. No we can’t dance together. No we can’t talk at all. Please take me along when you slide on down.

The youn'ins won't get the reference.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

...now gone ...  

The GEF based telecon lost the +PNA surge too - and the individual members, one can see why.  It's like the hemisphere up and abandoned.

Here comes spring D9/10 on this 12z Euro run ...Deep cold retreats N of 55 across Canada and everyone S of the border is above 0C at 850 with continental conveyor from NM to Maine...  Talking low 60s in mid Feb sun - not what winter enthusiasts want to see/hear.   

The last 6 years have seen some eerily warm spell events in February's and March's ... despite years having snow storms during those months - understood ... - the frequency began increasing going back really to 2012... I remember April was 90 on Easter sunday one of those years.  

Anyway, not saying that is the destiny this month, but I have been kind of waiting as a sidecar for early detection in the long range.  The AO is positive.  The NAO is positive.   The PNA is holding out, but lost the surge... If the latter slumps negative I'm not sure I see how we don't soar, given the "local climate era" - not delving into cause.. just monkey see monkey do    

Let's soar....if winter is going to suck, then just end it-

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let's soar....if winter is going to suck, then just end it-

50+ in DSD areas later this week .

[HIPPYVALLEY]

36 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Let's soar....if winter is going to suck, then just end it-

I’m really hoping we can pull off another decent storm or two for the interior but not really feeling that optimistic right now with the pattern. 
We were up in Southern Vermont yesterday and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so little snow in the southern Greens this time of year.

 

 

[George001]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

 

Yuck I hope that’s transient 

[Yukon Cornelius]

25 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m really hoping we can pull off another decent storm or two for the interior but not really feeling that optimistic right now with the pattern. 
We were up in Southern Vermont yesterday and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen so little snow in the southern Greens this time of year.

 

 

It sucks, but walking in the woods isn’t bad right now. No post holing and no mosquitoes 

[George001]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea. It’s practically over, winter that is.

It’s still the first week of Feb there is roughly a month and a half left. It looks like the models support a warmup in late Feb, but who knows how long that will last.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Basically ... it would not surprise me if the ambiance of the month ended up tinting that way - perhaps while no one is looking. Then wake on the 20th having been seduced from realizing how sore their butts were made along the way.  Tries to get spring past us LOL.  I'm not leaning that way now, but if in retrospect we were conned, at least one of us saw it coming.  m'er f'er

No but I don't think the climate signals are gone.  I think they start rearing again, IF IF IF the -EPO- like cold dumps stop servicing like the Euro cuts off.  I wonder if the EPS does that too, but we'll see - Euro could be bogus

I guess I just don't see how/why we don't observe the same sort of aggressive temperature returns like we have spanning a lot of recent springs whenever that above took place, Feb-Mar. 

It's been repeating ...  It seems we warm up when the fast flow lengthens the trough depths, and we get some early dry ridging... Then, mid late March the flow relaxes ( seasonally..) and for a month we get a 'slosh back' blocking that sets us up for packing pellets flurries on May 1. 

I                           hate                               it

 

We can bank on spring muck. It’s a NewEng staple. 

[ineedsnow]

11 minutes ago, George001 said:

It’s still the first week of Feb there is roughly a month and a half left. It looks like the models support a warmup in late Feb, but who knows how long that will last.

until January 2023

[ORH_wxman]

Quite the model war for the long range. GEFS are still very meridional and cold into 2nd half of February while EPS torches us. 

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Quite the model war for the long range. GEFS are still very meridional and cold into 2nd half of February while EPS torches us. 

We've had multiple torch looks this winter that have yet to appear.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, kdxken said:

We've had multiple torch looks this winter that have yet to appear.

I will say that the GEFS defeated the EPS for early February. Doesn’t mean they will win this time but the EPS kept trying to torch us in early February for awhile until they finally caved.

[PWMan]

Almost afraid to say this out-loud in here, but I'm hoping for a pattern shift since I'm heading out to MT on the 19th for skiing and snowmobiling with family. They've had quite a snow drought after a good start to the season, and the next 7-10 days look like a continuation of very mild and dry conditions out there. The saving grace in the Rockies is that they don't generally get wet Grinch storms that wipe everything out....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 hours ago, George001 said:

It’s still the first week of Feb there is roughly a month and a half left. It looks like the models support a warmup in late Feb, but who knows how long that will last.

Yes I do have a calendar but it looks pretty boring next 2wks and then if eps is right, winter ends for most. Anything can happen, sure, but I’d rather not wish for long shots and mentally prepare for spring instead.

[#NoPoles]

16 hours ago, powderfreak said:

-17F.

Fak me.  This winter has been absurd for cold nights.

You're telling me...-22

 

[weathafella]

GFS cooking up pd3 in clown range.

[George001]

2 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yes I do have a calendar but it looks pretty boring next 2wks and then if eps is right, winter ends for most. Anything can happen, sure, but I’d rather not wish for long shots and mentally prepare for spring instead.

Hopefully we get at least one more big one before spring. I wouldn’t say it looks boring the next 2 weeks though, the mid month period has potential. Just need the energy to eject faster. The recent guidance is burying the energy out west, so the storm gets squashed. After that though yeah it looks like it’s going to get mild late Feb. I do think the eps is onto something with the warm up late month.

[greenmtnwx]

5 hours ago, PWMan said:

Almost afraid to say this out-loud in here, but I'm hoping for a pattern shift since I'm heading out to MT on the 19th for skiing and snowmobiling with family. They've had quite a snow drought after a good start to the season, and the next 7-10 days look like a continuation of very mild and dry conditions out there. The saving grace in the Rockies is that they don't generally get wet Grinch storms that wipe everything out....

I’m headed to Big Sky 15-21 and was hoping for the Western trough 

[George001]

Euro brought the storm back, It has a low now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It does now have ensemble support. That looks like it’s the pattern changer and we end winter a few days after with Western trough and huge SE ridge .

[mahk_webstah]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It does now have ensemble support. That looks like it’s the pattern changer and we end winter a few days after with Western trough and huge SE ridge .

The Stark difference between the GFS and the EPS ensembles argues for a delayed pattern change. Maybe we make it through the 25th?  I don’t know with a Canadian ensembles say

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It does now have ensemble support. That looks like it’s the pattern changer and we end winter a few days after with Western trough and huge SE ridge .

It’s really weak support IMO on the ensembles. I just looked. 
I will say the EPS got a little cooler in the long range and the GEFS holding firm. The op run is really cold in the mid west which can be good for us. So all is not lost.

[Damage In Tolland]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s really weak support IMO on the ensembles. I just looked. 
I will say the EPS got a little cooler in the long range and the GEFS holding firm. The op run is really cold in the mid west which can be good for us. So all is not lost.

Hopefully onto something. They’ll probably meet in the middle ultimately 

[WinterWolf]

She ain’t gonna let us out. 

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, George001 said:

Euro brought the storm back, It has a low now. 

Negative AO rising

A storm is coming 

[EastonSN+]

Hmmm. What does this look like (special thanks and regards to the MA thread).

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

I’d like to see some non-euro guidance show this system today. Even the EPS was like warm as Scott said so we need to increase support. 
 

There’s a decent western ridge so it has some larger scale support but that in itself isn’t going to make the storm happen. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s really weak support IMO on the ensembles. I just looked. 
I will say the EPS got a little cooler in the long range and the GEFS holding firm. The op run is really cold in the mid west which can be good for us. So all is not lost.

Trending colder with little support for a storm is essentially a gun blast to the temple.