EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 14 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Apparently we have the least snow between NJ and all points east. At least subsidence zones get good wind. 10 days of tracking for this, oy vey. oops, wrong thread Still a decent storm for us. Bridgeport reported 6.9 at 7 AM so we should be around 8. I have to measure but looks close to 8 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:51 AM, MJO812 said: This is the time range personally watching.. The aspect for D6/ overrunning is real. It's been trending E across the nation spanning 3.5 ( ~) run cycles across all guidance/means - obviously folks are onto to that so no need. But I'm interested in what happens after that - mentioned so at the end of the Jan thread ... D8-12 still looks so 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 NEW RULE: New Jersey low or piss off fk the gulf stream 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 27 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is the time range personally watching.. The aspect for D6/ overrunning is real. It's been trending E across the nation spanning 3.5 ( ~) run cycles across all guidance/means - obviously folks are onto to that so no need. But I'm interested in what happens after that - mentioned so at the end of the Jan thread ... D8-12 still looks so Don’t forget the mid week icestorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t forget the mid week icestorm True, but Quebec should probably have its own subforum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: True, but Quebec should probably have its own subforum The one in SNE 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The one in SNE mid week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Don’t forget the mid week icestorm well ..that's what I had in mind when I said D6 ... there's a wave of low presser involved that passes either NW, over head, or underneath ( tho less likely the latter) around that day, but ..yeah, if the colder solutions were to pan out than the leading boundary would likely end up suppressing south of the PIT-BOS line, and that enters a question of overrunning/mix .. ice from NW to SE, out ahead of any such wave of low pressure. It's a messy look, I'll give you that. It's hard to pin point this last coastal storm? Try pinning down an icer from this range. pretty much can't be done. Only trend recognition 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 That's all that's left of the big early Feb warm up we saw 10 days ago, huh - Fast flow hemisphere: it can also give back in that sense ( maybe) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z GFS was warmer for NNE but still plenty close and ensembles all look flatter to me. It’ll be a marginal event for sure but the ski areas could clean up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: CMC too...looks like that could have a chance (would like to see the A team show it though). I don't see anything happening mid-week with the dead shortwave to the south of us and the clipper well to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: well ..that's what I had in mind when I said D6 ... there's a wave of low presser involved that passes either NW, over head, or underneath ( tho less likely the latter) around that day, but ..yeah, if the colder solutions were to pan out than the leading boundary would likely end up suppressing south of the PIT-BOS line, and that enters a question of overrunning/mix .. ice from NW to SE, out ahead of any such wave of low pressure. It's a messy look, I'll give you that. It's hard to pin point this last coastal storm? Try pinning down an icer from this range. pretty much can't be done. Only trend recognition Ensembles/ EPS show a colder solution than the op. Either way.. the furnace snow melter is gone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Given the constant trend for SE, weak, and lame, I really want to see the next event take a more NW track at range. Anyone wishing for it to be “right where we want it” OTS five days out is crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's all that's left of the big early Feb warm up we saw 10 days ago, huh - Fast flow hemisphere: it can also give back in that sense ( maybe) Thanks Tip. Hopefully we can get some blocking at some point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 51 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: That's all that's left of the big early Feb warm up we saw 10 days ago, huh - Fast flow hemisphere: it can also give back in that sense ( maybe) One would think this would cause a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 CMC looks great next for NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
backedgeapproaching Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 22 minutes ago, PhineasC said: CMC looks great next for NNE. Yea, that would be nice. Has 2.5" QPF of snow/IP down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Euro coming in way southeast of 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: yeah, way too far out to really care unfortunately since it has like literally 0 margin for error. But that'd be a bigger event than today for almost everyone outside of EMA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Next week looks great for NNE. And it’s not a million hours away. And it’s not an incredibly complex offshore phasing setup. This may be the one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Euro looks great for Friday for those of us who just jacked. Euro called it for days in advance, so why would I doubt them on this next one. Ukie has a few inches here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 32 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Next week looks great for NNE. And it’s not a million hours away. And it’s not an incredibly complex offshore phasing setup. This may be the one. Ah yes ... it's always nicer to post-mortem our way out of an under-achiever ( relative to IMBY's of course - ), into another assurance for d-drip week, to keep us from crashing too hard. Haha... it's funny but true. I remember we use to talk about this up in the weather lab at UML back in college, how there's like a post-partum depression kinda of psycho babble after storms end. I mean you're in after glow but ... by the third day, that wears off and if you are looking at an anathemic pattern, that can be a bit of a withdraw likeness. But this GGEM solution just converted a thaw into an cold rain --> ice/mix --> snow ordeal ... Big too actually. You know regardless of whether that happens or not for IMBYs, where that does take place, that may last a full 24 hours to transition through that. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 It's an interesting system. It's what I like to call a maintenance event - it helps keep it cold but it isn't rooted in a pattern change that is going into cold(exit) from a milder(colder) regime. I don't know what that means - I have engagement fatigue and can't think straight. I'm just saying it sneaky in between the larger synoptic indicators. Tell you what..I'm gonna go look at the individual members of ens' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: The one in SNE I completely agree. The inland runner is trending east and there’s a very strong high to the north, despite all the warmth surging in at the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I’ll take a windless paster next. This is a great storm, but all the exposed bare ground drives me nuts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's an interesting system. It's what I like to call a maintenance event - it helps keep it cold but it isn't rooted in a pattern change that is going into cold(exit) from a milder(colder) regime. I don't know what that means - I have engagement fatigue and can't think straight. I'm just saying it sneaky in between the larger synoptic indicators. Tell you what..I'm gonna go look at the individual members of ens' the antecedent airmass is warm and stale but a high feeds in cold and it gradually turns to sleet and then to snow? something like that with a cold press? That's be a nice event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 35 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Euro looks great for Friday for those of us who just jacked. Euro called it for days in advance, so why would I doubt them on this next one. Ukie has a few inches here, too. actually .. it's so suppressed it almost doesn't exist. The frontal passage has sped up in time over the recent days' worth of runs ..but whether there is any return flow right away that runs over it and creates something mixy and what not was also a newness to the Fri/Thur time frame. This Euro run doesn't so much establish enough of that and just keeps the whole thing as a cold front with a wave S. but christ... who knows. I think we need watch the D 8-11 range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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