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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs and cmc looks good mid to long range

Euro takes the MJO to 4 while the gefs doesn't 

The models have had a storm on and off around the mid Feb timeframe for a bit. I’m hoping to see that signal strengthen on the ensembles especially over the next few days. If we can get the MJO to stall in 3, that would extend our favorable window even longer. In prime snow climo (roughly last week of Jan to like 3rd week of Feb at least for my area), even an extra couple of weeks of a favorable pattern can make a big difference. 

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Heh ..that Euro run looks similar to a couple of sale attempts it leveled at us prior to the blizzard last week ... 3 days before hand.

This was a 'carte blanche run'   ... basically, it only sees the potential, noting else, so is free to ceiling.   I like the 6-8"/hr band with lightning from PSM to HFD on hour 216 on Pivotal's rendition - that'd be a hoot.  But the most eye popping aspect about this Euro run is that by hr 222, that particular frame would have severe winter storm criteria simultaneously occurring from DCA to PHL-NYC-BOS.  Now that's hard to do that...  Usually, it's tapering PHL S when it's raging up this way...That "artistic" carte blanche solution concurrently locks the megaplex - right out my 9th grade math notebook LOL

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