February 2022 Obs/Disco

[RDRY]

9 hours ago, George001 said:

I disagree. We have seen a trend towards more big ones yes, which explains why seasonal snowfall averages have increased. However, it seems like it’s harder and harder to get marginal systems to go our way. I do think climate change is a big part of this, as the warmer oceans help beef up storms, which helps us get more big ones. However, a warmer background state also works against us in more marginal events where we don’t have those dynamics. Although snowfall averages have increased here, they have decreased in areas to the south. The earth is getting warmer, and the rate of that warmth is accelerating. There’s a reason why every year we hear “this year is a top 10 warmest year on record”. 2021 was tied for the 6th warmest year on record in a goddamn raging La Niña. La Niña is a cyclical weather oscillation that favors COOLER average global temps, yet last year still was one of the warmest on record globally. You aren’t wrong about cyclical weather cycles, but climate change plays a huge role as well, and that role is getting bigger and bigger every year. 

The Earth has been spinning for over 4 billion years. The "warmest year on record" trope that encompasses a couple hundred years is absurd. But it makes for an excellent sound bite.

[Great Snow 1717]

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Meh. The winters are getting disrupted, period.
 
Making climate numbers off over producing minor systems that are benefitting from a theta-e bloated ambiance, meanwhile winters leaving huge potential consummately untapped … is a weirdly reduxing behavior and is different.  And a random Feb or Mar that didn’t leave as much on the table …? Yay  Those are exceptions to the rule and don’t abase the longer term.

I can’t allow myself to hide behind climate numbers to avoid admitting an unwanted change - that elides the reality. 

You are correct 

[UnitedWx]

12 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Cc is real 

end discussion

 

Of course it is...how old is the earth. Been going on a very long time. I feel many forget that because of media and monetary narratives Edit: Sorry, I thought I was in the banter thread!

[ineedsnow]

6z CMC had a pretty good snowstorm for some   kind of the only model showing it though

[mahk_webstah]

Some suggestions for how to boundglobal warming conversations in pattern threads:

1. The earth is warming and it is unprecedented for at least a few thousand years.  This I don't think is scientifically deniable.  Also, the warming is being driven largely by human activity.  I don't think this is scientifically deniable.
2. What we do from a public policy perspective is very debatable, and that is a political conversation and not for pattern threads.
3. Climate change is overused as an explanation for what are fairly normal shifts, for example decadal changes in things like the NAO or the EPO.  These sorts of shifts would be happening regardless regardless of global warming.  A particularly severe individual hurricane, for example,  shouldn't be explained as being because of climate change.
4. Climate change can't be used to explain everything in weather.  Pretending that it isn't really happening is at least as ignorant.
5. The impact of a warming climate on baseline climate norms and how that could affect forecasts, for example the ever-growing Hadley Cell that threatens to take over the world, is relevant to pattern discussion.  The notion that hurricanes have more heat energy to work with and thus the hurricane season might be longer and feature more severe hurricanes is relevant, because the warming oceans have more heat content with which to feed hurricanes.  TThis last bullet point represents the kind of content I think we should include in the pattern threads when warranted.  The prior 4 bullets just provoke political polarization.

 

[weathafella]

I kind of stopped reading after 6Z CMC...

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Some suggestions for how to boundglobal warming conversations in pattern threads:

1. The earth is warming and it is unprecedented for at least a few thousand years.  This I don't think is scientifically deniable.  Also, the warming is being driven largely by human activity.  I don't think this is scientifically deniable.
2. What we do from a public policy perspective is very debatable, and that is a political conversation and not for pattern threads.
3. Climate change is overused as an explanation for what are fairly normal shifts, for example decadal changes in things like the NAO or the EPO.  These sorts of shifts would be happening regardless regardless of global warming.  A particularly severe individual hurricane, for example,  shouldn't be explained as being because of climate change.
4. Climate change can't be used to explain everything in weather.  Pretending that it isn't really happening is at least as ignorant.
5. The impact of a warming climate on baseline climate norms and how that could affect forecasts, for example the ever-growing Hadley Cell that threatens to take over the world, is relevant to pattern discussion.  The notion that hurricanes have more heat energy to work with and thus the hurricane season might be longer and feature more severe hurricanes is relevant, because the warming oceans have more heat content with which to feed hurricanes.  TThis last bullet point represents the kind of content I think we should include in the pattern threads when warranted.  The prior 4 bullets just provoke political polarization.

 

Excellent post.  I’m curious if you wrote it or it is from somewhere else?

[CoastalWx]

GFS a little closer. 6z EPS too. It is a lousy airmass though.

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, weathafella said:

Excellent post.  I’m curious if you wrote it or it is from somewhere else?

Thank you  no that is literally me just writing that in the moment.  I've certainly thought about it a lot.

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS a little closer. 6z EPS too. It is a lousy airmass though.

Lindsay storm like.  But it worked.  That gave me the February 69 vibe.   100 hour storm similar but I was on the outside for that one in Ithaca.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Thank you  no that is literally me just writing that in the moment.  I've certainly thought about it a lot.

Well done!   

[WinterWolf]

Ok, Now back to the Feb thread. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I am on pace for an all time snow futility winter since we moved here in 2007.   My last storm over 5" was December 2020. 

[Great Snow 1717]

17 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Some suggestions for how to boundglobal warming conversations in pattern threads:

1. The earth is warming and it is unprecedented for at least a few thousand years.  This I don't think is scientifically deniable.  Also, the warming is being driven largely by human activity.  I don't think this is scientifically deniable.
2. What we do from a public policy perspective is very debatable, and that is a political conversation and not for pattern threads.
3. Climate change is overused as an explanation for what are fairly normal shifts, for example decadal changes in things like the NAO or the EPO.  These sorts of shifts would be happening regardless regardless of global warming.  A particularly severe individual hurricane, for example,  shouldn't be explained as being because of climate change.
4. Climate change can't be used to explain everything in weather.  Pretending that it isn't really happening is at least as ignorant.
5. The impact of a warming climate on baseline climate norms and how that could affect forecasts, for example the ever-growing Hadley Cell that threatens to take over the world, is relevant to pattern discussion.  The notion that hurricanes have more heat energy to work with and thus the hurricane season might be longer and feature more severe hurricanes is relevant, because the warming oceans have more heat content with which to feed hurricanes.  TThis last bullet point represents the kind of content I think we should include in the pattern threads when warranted.  The prior 4 bullets just provoke political polarization.

 

Great post!! ..especially agree with the part I highlighted.

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I am on pace for an all time snow futility winter since we moved here in 2007.   My last storm over 5" was December 2020. 

What is your lowest snowfall total for a season?

[PhineasC]

When's the next snowstorm?

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, PhineasC said:

When's the next snowstorm?

perhaps the end of next week, if not then it's anyone's guess

[ORH_wxman]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS a little closer. 6z EPS too. It is a lousy airmass though.

Yeah likely an interior special if it gets close enough....though if it can deepen fast enough, it could prob collapse the 900-05-mb layer back toward the coast, but that is a longshot.

[WeatherWilly]

Southern southern new england got their big storm thankfully but looks pretty bleak now with above average temps forecasted for the next several weeks.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

Southern southern new england got their big storm thankfully but looks pretty bleak now with above average temps forecasted for the next several weeks.

Lol…

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

Southern southern new england got their big storm thankfully but looks pretty bleak now with above average temps forecasted for the next several weeks.

[cleetussnow]

26 minutes ago, WeatherWilly said:

Southern southern new england got their big storm thankfully but looks pretty bleak now with above average temps forecasted for the next several weeks.

uh...normal to below normal.  There might be 2 days of warmth in the next 10.  Maybe 3 days.  The next 10-15 days do not have a warm signal. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

uh...normal to below normal.  There might be 2 days of warmth in the next 10.  Maybe 3 days.  The next 10-15 days do not have a warm signal. 

Ya he’s in his own world it seems.  Very misinformed. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

What is your lowest snowfall total for a season?

21.5"  in 2016.  I need 6" to catch that.  

[Great Snow 1717]

4 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

21.5"  in 2016.  I need 6" to catch that.  

Thanks for the reply. What is your seasonal average?

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Thanks for the reply. What is your seasonal average?

 

Around 60"  The hill towns around me average closer to 70"

NW MA is having a terrible winter.  Pathetic totals in the Berkshires.  Berkshire East is at 20" on the season, luckily it's been cold for snow making.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

21.5"  in 2016.  I need 6" to catch that.  

You’ll catch that(2016).
 

I’m at 24.25” currently.  I Need to double that to reach normal. it’s doable. Hoping we both can score something soon.  Maybe you on the 8th? 

[Great Snow 1717]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Around 60"  The hill towns around me average closer to 70"

NW MA is having a terrible winter.  Pathetic totals in the Berkshires.  Berkshire East is at 20" on the season, luckily it's been cold for snow making.

It has been an F- winter. That is a really low total for Berkshire East. Just from my own personal observation it seems like W.Mass hasn't had much in the way of the long lake effect streamers this winter.

[SnoSki14]

12 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Around 60"  The hill towns around me average closer to 70"

NW MA is having a terrible winter.  Pathetic totals in the Berkshires.  Berkshire East is at 20" on the season, luckily it's been cold for snow making.

Lol Atlantic City and many coastal NJ towns are 30"+ 

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Lol Atlantic City and many coastal NJ towns are 30"+ 

The Situation there has been better for a Jersey Shore winter....