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February 2022 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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41 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I am getting to the point where I just want to be done with it, and sacrifice another sub 50% of mean seasonal snowfall to the gods of regression. Not complaining, but its been exhausting.

If that EPO ridge does not retro then it will last longer. My gut was thinking it would, but you know the caveats.

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Yeah... just waiting for the Pac to deliver ANYthing into that D6 to 11 range is stealing one's time of life away.   Just won't take advantage of that modest, albeit coherent +PNA expression.  It's like 4 consecutive days with no S/W traffic, in a fast hemisphere no less.  That's strange -

Lord it's hard to click through GFS without one's eyelids getting heavy and fighting off taking a nap.  It's like a super-storm of avoidance, in a field of extraordinary potential.  Instead, it fills the time with an endless parade of middling cold waves, that do nothing but set the table for the next front.  Wondering if this is just part of the same tooth pulling we've suffered for many winters ...really since 2015's February. 

If it were not for that one 30 day stretch, we'd be working on a multi-decadal piece of shit f-up climate dent

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

If that EPO ridge does not retro then it will last longer. My gut was thinking it would, but you know the caveats.

EPS does not look warm....we may get a bit susceptible to some cutters after mid-month, but if that poleward ridge doesn't break down, then there's going to be a ton of cold in the CONUS.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS does not look warm....we may get a bit susceptible to some cutters after mid-month, but if that poleward ridge doesn't break down, then there's going to be a ton of cold in the CONUS.

Wow, no it is not warm. I noticed H5 ridge as slowly ticked east closer to the coast of western NAMR. She's not going to let us out.

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27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow, no it is not warm. I noticed H5 ridge as slowly ticked east closer to the coast of western NAMR. She's not going to let us out.

Yeah the heart of the cold will be the plains....we might actually have a few 'bouts of seasonably mild wx too (Tip warm car seat 42F days) since we're on the eastern side of the trough....but it's got an active look. We're gonna have chances I think....and with a ridge that amplified, I don't think we can rule out another big dog chance.

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31 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Are you saying that the 30 day stretch in 2015 was the only good stretch of sustained winter weather in multiple decades?  I must be misinterpreting that, right?

Well ... don't take that as gospel lol - I'm being snarky there a little...

In more honest earthly tenor, I'll say that other than that, I don't recall an inspired winter between 2010 and then, nor since.  It's an island in a sea of not-so-great winters (to me).  An island with a mt Everest, but an isolated deal.  Not sure what/how others remember.  But that's 12 years with fewer breaks toward inspiring winter weather, as the general tendency.

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... don't take that as gospel lol - I'm being snarky there a little...

In more honest earthly tenor, I'll say that other than that, I don't recall an inspired winter between 2010 and then, nor since.  It's an island in a sea of not-so-great winters (to me).  An island with a mt Everest, but an isolated deal.  Not sure what/how others remember.  But that's 12 years with fewer breaks toward inspiring winter weather, as the general tendency.

Maybe your impressions exaggerate the crappiness.  Granted, I live in southern Fairfield County, which has a much lower bar to hurdle...the long-term average for snowfall here is just under 40" per year.  Here are the results from my snow log going back to 08/09:

08/09           43"

09/10            46" - we were literally 20 crow-fly miles from much, much, more

10/11             71"

11/12             18"

12/13             69"

13/14             66"

14/15             68"  -and we got screwed!

15/16             35"  - in a super el-nino

16/17             48"

17/18             61"

18/19            29"

19/20           missing

20/21           45"

 

All in all, a very good stretch....better than very good, at least down here!

 

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Well ... don't take that as gospel lol - I'm being snarky there a little...

In more honest earthly tenor, I'll say that other than that, I don't recall an inspired winter between 2010 and then, nor since.  It's an island in a sea of not-so-great winters (to me).  An island with a mt Everest, but an isolated deal.  Not sure what/how others remember.  But that's 12 years with fewer breaks toward inspiring winter weather, as the general tendency.

2017-2018 was pretty nice. It did have that one ridiculous February torch but the rest of the winter was very snow and we had record cold in late December 2017/early Jan 2018…ORH had nearly 100” that winter. 
 

The extremely high end winters are obviously rarer….winters like 2002-2003, 2010-2011, 2014-2015….you could throw in 2000-2001 and 2004-2005 on a more local level (00-01 interior N and W of 495 and 04-05 S and E of 495…esp near Cape). 

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23 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Maybe your impressions exaggerate the crappiness.  Granted, I live in southern Fairfield County, which has a much lower bar to hurdle...the long-term average for snowfall here is just under 40" per year.  Here are the results from my snow log going back to 08/09:

08/09           43"

09/10            46" - we were literally 20 crow-fly miles from much, much, more

10/11             71"

11/12             18"

12/13             69"

13/14             66"

14/15             68"  -and we got screwed!

15/16             35"  - in a super el-nino

16/17             48"

17/18             61"

18/19            29"

19/20           missing

20/21           45"

 

All in all, a very good stretch....better than very good, at least down here!

 

 

 

Pretty good down there. Why is 19/20 missing?

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

2017-2018 was pretty nice. It did have that one ridiculous February torch but the rest of the winter was very snow and we had record cold in late December 2017/early Jan 2018…ORH had nearly 100” that winter. 
 

The extremely high end winters are obviously rarer….winters like 2002-2003, 2010-2011, 2014-2015….you could throw in 2000-2001 and 2004-2005 on a more local level (00-01 interior N and W of 495 and 04-05 S and E of 495…esp near Cape). 

I knew you guys were going to jump all over that "impression" with numbers but the numbers lie.

The relativity of it is that those winter left a lot on the field - that's more like what I'm remembering. The tough losses have been increased in frequency.   I think it's partly because of the fast flow problem that is fact - when commercial airline industry has set most of their air-/land speed records since 2000, etc...  Anyway , we are seeing above normal snow fall winters, mostly as a function of increased theta-e loading - no doubt related to climate model predictions to do so, in a warming world. 

But, the the ways and means in which we are increasing those is more a function of just whenever anything is falling from the sky.   In fact, I'd be willing to bet some of the 60 years in his list were few events number years.  It's inflating numbers to get big totals in few events, sort of belying the truth of the aggravation in between times.  Interesting...   

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19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I knew you guys were going to jump all over that "impression" with numbers but the numbers lie.

The relativity of it is that those winter left a lot on the field - that's more like what I'm remembering. The tough losses have been increased in frequency.   I think it's partly because of the fast flow problem that is fact - when commercial airline industry has set most of their air-/land speed records since 2000, etc...  Anyway , we are seeing above normal snow fall winters, mostly as a function of increased theta-e loading - no doubt related to climate model predictions to do so, in a warming world. 

But, the the ways and means in which we are increasing those is more a function of just whenever anything is falling from the sky.   In fact, I'd be willing to bet some of the 60 years in his list were few events number years.  It's inflating numbers to get big totals in few events, sort of belying the truth of the aggravation in between times.  Interesting...   

John, at least for my area, I disagree. I had almost 90", including a 30"+ event in the midst of my snowiest March on record ...not sure what was left on the field. And believe me, I love to b.tch, as everyone well knows. If you really want to get technical, 2015 left alot on the field in March....Boston could have easily had 125".

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

John, at least for my area, I disagree. I had almost 90", including a 30"+ event in the midst of my snowiest March on record ...not sure what was left on the field. And believe me, I love to b.tch, as everyone well knows. If you really want to get technical, 2015 left alot on the field in March....Boston could have easily had 125".

Yeah. 
 

Every season leaves some on the table. Even 1995-1996 (Dec 19-20 was a big underperformer, Feb 16, whiff on 3/26 etc )….

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah. 
 

Every season leaves some on the table. Even 1995-1996 (Dec 19-20 was a big underperformer, Feb 16, whiff on 3/26 etc )….

TBH, its the active seasons that leave something on the field....I mean, what did 2019-2020, 2011-2012 and 2001-2002 leave on the field lol

Not sure how the numbers lie...85" is 85".

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